Fox News/Opinion Dynamics: Bush +4 (3 way) +2 (2 way)

[Hegemon]

3 way numbers:  Bush 47% Kerry 43% Nader 3%
2 way numbers:  Bush 47% Kerry 45%

Poll conducted 9/7-9/8.

[JNB]

    The Bush bounce becomes more muted, but are these RVs or LVs?

[Hegemon]

Likely voters.  Details at pollingreport.com.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poll seems saner than most I've seen recently

[ATFFL]

Poll seems saner than most I've seen recently

Translation:  Its the one you like the most.  <G>

This is another clear sign that FOX is a right-wing lunatic fringe GOP shill.  Coming in 5 points to the left of Gallup.  Sure sign of a disreputable firm trying to overstate Bush.

This is about what I would expect.  THis would be about where the other polls that are about +7 would be if they did not push the leaners so hard.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/090904_poll.pdf

[A18]

Looks a little low, but since the margin of error is about 3 points, it's not really far from +7, which is probably more realistic.

[The Vorlon]

Looks a little low, but since the margin of error is about 3 points, it's not really far from +7, which is probably more realistic.

I am really curious how the monthly polling anaylsis that James Carvilles advocacy group "Democracy Corps" will deal with this poll.

According to Democracy Corps, and I quote:

"Due to consistently one-sided deviation from all other publicly released non-partisan polls, we exclude FOX News polls from our trend analyses.  We continue to report and analyze all FOX News releases but decline to include their figures in our trend analyses."

This is the 2nd cycle in a row Fox/Opinion Dymanics has been on of the more favorable polls to Mr. Kerry.

But why let partisan rhetoric get in the way of actual facts

[Giant Saguaro]

Not totally unexpected; they've moved from having the race in the low 40s early on to the mid 40s now where it's been. It will be interesting to see if other ensuing polls confirm this one and that the race is moving back into the mid to upper 40s.

[A18]

Problem is, nothing has happened that could really be expected to lower Bush's support. He was polling at 52-54%, and I suspect that's where he is now.

Gallup has him at 48% certain. Fox has him at 47% total...

[The Vorlon]

Problem is, nothing has happened that could really be expected to lower Bush's support. He was polling at 52-54%, and I suspect that's where he is now.

Gallup has him at 48% certain. Fox has him at 47% total...

Gallup pushes the leaners, Opinion Dynamics does not.

Look at it this way:

Fox

Bush 47
Kerry 43
Nader  3
Undecided 7

Of those expressing a preference:

Bush 47/93 => 50.53%
Kerry 43/93 => 46.26%

I suspect in the aftermath of the Republican Convention, if you hammered the leaners Bush would have got his share

Gallup says 52/45 after pushing the leaners.
Fox says 51/46 among those expressing a preference.

Pretty darn close actually.

Pushing or not pushing the leaners is a philosophical qustion, there is no right or wrong when you are 2 months out.

Fox uses a much looser voter screen than many which is also a tad Dem friendly (as I posted before - you guys all laughed at me when I said Fox was a bit Kerry friendly methodologically ) so, on balance,  I think NOT pushing the leaners is the  better choice in this case.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Looks like Opinion Dynamics is back on track after their somewhat strange results in August.

Still looking forward to seeing ISPOS and Harris.

[agcatter]

Really not that bad a poll for Kerry.

[Rococo4]

not really too great either though

[agcatter]

I meant relatively speaking