.

[Dan the Roman]

Not in the 2012, but given the Massachusetts example, where in 2003 every major political figure(including Kennedy and Kerry) opposed, where today all three Gubernatorial candidates strongly support it, I expect that by 2020 this will be the case.

The interesting thing is the same effect is going on in California. Despite Prop-8 passing, support for it is now looked upon as a major liability for statewide office.

I actually suspect if Obama gets two-terms and potentially even if he doesn't we will get a Supreme Court ruling on it. I fully expect the GOP to run full boar against it the first presidential election after it, oppose it queltly and focus on other things by the second, and all mainstream Republicans to support it by the third presidential election after legalization.

Oddly, I have a hunch things nevertheless would have moved faster with an unpopular McCain Presidency.

[Dan the Roman]

I have little doubt that after 2016 or 2020 most Democratic presidential candidates will support gay marriage.

Obviously that's not happening for the GOP for a while.

Give it another 20 years. Then again, if America is definately on an irreversable decline by then, the gay marriage thing might just go away because aging societies tend to become less cosmopolitan. Look at the Roman Empire/Former Roman Empire (Byzantium). 

Not at issue here, but Byzantium lasted 1000 years and was hardly in irreversible decline until after Andronikus III died. It definitely had periods of decline, but no more so than say France had in the 1650s.

As for the Roman Empire, physical decline meant less not more luxury, and less tolerance for homosexuality. 5th cent Rome was Christian after all, and the Catholic Church was dictating domestic policy. Not to mention that the Germans were fierce social cons.