Predicted Results for 2010 Governor Races

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to
AR- Beebe-D
CO- Ritter-D
IL- Quinn/Hynes-D
IA- Culver-D
ME- 
MD- O'Malley-D
MA- Patrick-D- narrow win.
NH- Lynch-D
NM- Denish-D
NY- if either Cuomo or Suozzi is the Democratic nominee.
OH- Strickland-D
OR- Kitzhaber or Bradbury-D
PA- if Wagner or Onorato is the Democratic nominee
WI- Lawton-D
WY-if Freudenthal-D is permited to run again.
Democrats will lose or likely lose.
KS- Brownback-R
MI- Cox-R
NY- if Paterson is the Democratic Nominee and Guiliani is the GOP nominee.
OK- Fallin-R
PA- if Knox is the Democratic nominee
TN- Wamp-R
WY- if Freudenthal-D is barred from running again.
Republican Seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- if Moore is not the GOP nominee.
AK- Parnell-R
CT- Rell-R
GA- Oxedine-R
ID- Otter-R
NE- Heineman-R
SC- Barrett-R
SD- Duragard-R
TX- Hutchison/Perry-R
UT- Herbert-R
VT- Douglas-R
Republicans will lose or likely lose
AL- if Moore is the GOP nominee
AZ- Goddard-D
CA- Brown-D
FL- Sink-D
HI- Abercrombie-D
MN- Rybak-D
NV- Whoever the Democratic nominee is will defeat Jim Gibbons
RI- Tossup between Chaffee-I vs Democratic Nominee. Republican Nominee is irrevelant.

[nkpatel1279]

The governors Race in NJ is basically due to Corzine's unpopularity. Corzine-NJ can win if voters in NJ despise Christie-NJ as much as they despise Corzine. VA votes for the opposing party as the President.  Looking at other Governors Race.
Republicans are going to win the Governorship in every Southern State except for AR- which Beebe-will handily win. Republicans will pick up the Governorship in OK and TN. and hold onto AL,FL,GA,and SC.  Republicans will also pick up the Governorship of KS and WY and MI and PA two battleground states which switches parties every 8 years.
Democrats will pickup the Governorships in AZ,CA,HI,MN,and VT. RI is a tossup with either Chaffee or DEM nominee.

[nkpatel1279]

2009 Governors Race Prediction
NJ- Corzine-D narrowly win re-election.
VA- McDonnell-R defeats Deeds-D by a high single digit margin. +1R
2010 Governors Race Prediction.
Democratic Retention.
1)AR-Beebe-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
2)IL-Quinn-D or Hynes-D defeats whoever the GOP nominates.
3)IA- Culver-D vs Vander Platts-R- Culver-D wins.
4)ME-OPEN- Whoever the Democrats nominate is favored to defeat whoever the Republicans nominate.
5)MD-O'Malley-D wins re-election by a double digit margin.
6)MA-Patrick-D narrowly wins a three way race. Patrick-D 40%. Baker-R 35% and Cahill-I 25%
7)NH-Lynch-D wins re-election by a landslide margin.
8)NM-OPEN- Diane Denish-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate by a double digit margin.
9)NY- If Democrats nominate Anyone but Paterson- Cuomo,Dinapoli,Suozzi,Weiner,etc.
10)OH-Strickland-D defeats Kasich-R by a high single digit margin.
11)OR-OPEN- ex Governor John Kitzhaber-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominates by a landslide margin.
12)WI-OPEN- Barbara Lawton-D defeats either Scott Walker or Mark Neumann-R by a narrow margin.

[nkpatel1279]

2010 Governors Election
Republican Retention.
1)AL- Arthur Davis-D comes up narrowly short of being the first AA Governor of Alabama- narrowly losing to Tim James.
2)AK- Parnell-R wins a first 4 year term.
3)CT- Rell-R wins re-election by a high single digit margin over whoever the Democrats nominate.
4)FL- McCollum-R narrowly defeats Sink-D.
5)GA- Roy Barnes-D narrowly loses a bid for a comeback.
6)ID-Otter-R wins re-election by a landslide.
7)NE-Heineman-R wins re-election by a landslide.
8)SC- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
9)SD- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of SC.
10)TX- either Hutchison or Perry is strongly favored to win.
11)UT- Herbert-R is favored to win a special election.

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Pickups.
1)AZ- Goddard-D unseats Brewer-R by a narrow margin.
2)CA- Brown-D defeats whoever the Republicans nominate.
3)HI- Ambercrombie-D defeats Aiona-R.
4)MN- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Ryback or Dayton will be the next Governor of MN.
5)VT- Whoever the Democrats nominate- Racine or Markowitz will be the next Governor of VT.

Governors Races in RI-is a tossup between Chaffee-I or Whoever the Democratic nominee is.
NV- Gibbons will lose in the primary. If Democrats will nominate Rory Reid- who will lose to a generic Republican opponent- Brian Sandoval.  If Oscar Goodman enters- it will be a close 3 way race with Goodman-I winning.

Republican pickups.
1)CO- Ritter-D narrowly loses to McInnis-R.
2)IA- Branstad-D vs Culver-R
3)KS- Brownback-R is the next Governor of KS.
4)MI- Cox-R narrowly defeats Cherry-D.
5)OK- Fallin-R defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.

6)PA- Corbett-R narrowly defeats whoever the Democrats nominate.
7)TN- Whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of TN.
8)WY- whoever the Republicans nominate will be the next Governor of WY.

No significant change in the Governorship breakdown.

[nkpatel1279]

During the 1990 and 1994 Governors Races. Republicans won the governorships in California(Pete Wilson-R),Illinios(Jim Edgar-R),Iowa(Terry Brandstad-R),Massachusetts(Bill Weld-R),Michigan(John Engler-R),Minnesota(Arne Carlson-R),New Hampshire(Steve Merill-R),Ohio(George Voinovich-R),and Wisconsin(Tommy Thompson-R). and Bill Clinton carried those states in 1992 and 1994.
Looking at the State which sent Republicans to the governorships in 1994 that voted Democratic at the presidential level.- Connecticut-(John Rowland/Jodi Rell-R), New York (George Pataki-R), Pennsylvania(Tom Ridge-R),and Rhode Island(Lincoln Almond/Don Carcieri-R).
Having a Democratic governor in Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvania,and Florida is critical in the 2012 Congressional redistricting effort.