brentster
Newbie
Posts: 3
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« on: August 17, 2009, 05:01:03 AM » |
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I agree with the results for the most part. Some note, however
In Oregon, I agree that Republican Gordon Smith would win should he run (and I don't think he will). Otherwise, I think a generic D beats a generic R there. Gordon Smih is still well thought of even after his recent narrow defeat for reelection to Senate, and he would be favored over a less impressive candidate like Bill Bradbury.
In Hawaii, which some analysts are already handing to the Dems as a foregone conclusion, I agree that that race will be much closer than many predict. Neil Abercrombie (D) is quirky and unpredictable, and James Aion's eight years in state-wide office under a popular Republican governor should count for something.
DiFi won't run in California. If Meg Whitman is the GOP nominee, she has an even shot against Jerry Brown and would be favored over Gavin Newsom. Dems have a long tradition of shooting themselves in the foot with Cal govenor races. Yes, Arnold isn't popular, but the Dem-run Legislature is even less so. This could easily be a Republican retention.
There's no way that Mary Fallin (R) blows by Drew Edmondson (D) by 20 points in Oklahoma. At worse, Edmondson has an even shot at winning. He's been in statewide office for about forever now already, and his family is practically an Oklahoma institution.
Finally, it's hard for me to fathom Texas voters wanting four more years of Rick Perry, though I admit it is possible. Should he survive the primary battle from Hutchison (and that's a big if), he would probably be a slight underdog to Bill White, who is a strong candidate for the Democrats (assuming he gets the Dem nomination). Perry could still pull through in the end, but it won't be anywhere close to 56%.
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