2010 Senate Election in Arizona

[The Arizonan]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Republican hold, no doubt about it. Although Democratic gain in the Governor's race.

[pogo stick]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

John McCain is the greatest Senator from Arizona!

[nhmagic]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

[pogo stick]

The Arizonan  is a huge joke. He PMs me asking if it's possible to be a jew and a conservative.

The Arizonan is obviously a troll.

[SamInTheSouth]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

Are you serious?  McCain isn't going anywhere.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Azmagic8, thank you for your great job of analyzing your state. I learned a lot just by reading your post. Kudos

My take is that Arizona is becoming more moderate and will transcend into a battleground state in 2012. My reasoning behind this is simply that John McCain performed worse in his home state than George W. Bush did four years earlier, and while I understand that 2004 and 2008 were two entirely different election cycles, it just surprises me how McCain was not able to win his state by a larger margin. He's served as U.S. Senator from Arizona for how long now, 30+ years? Most Senators who have served that long have built up stature and should be indestructible in statewide elections. However, it may not have been all McCain's fault himself as it may have been his terrible selection as Sarah Palin as his running mate. Her divisive rhetoric (Obama palling around with terrorists, the pro-American parts of the country, etc.) and deeply conservative views on the social issues probably didn't play so well in Arizona, particularly among the state's growing Latino community. One also has to consider that as well - the growing Latino population will definitely make Arizona a swing state in 2012 especially if it's a neutral or another relatively Democratic year and if Republicans keep up their anti-immigration talk (insert Chris Simcox into this equation). Simcox is definitely going to attack McCain from the right and will grill him on his "pro-amnesty" views on illegal immigration, which I think puts McCain in a bind: if he goes Tom Tancredo style, he risks alienating the state's large Latino community and that will hurt him in the general election; however, if he stays the course and sticks to his "liberal" views on immigration, it may antagonize the far-right wingers who mostly vote in GOP primaries, so anything is possible - it just depends on *which* McCain we see emerge. I still think he will retain his seat simply for the fact that Senators who have served as long as he has are probably going to be there until they retire or die. I think McCain will stick to his position simply because he's the incumbent, his seniority status, he has statewide name recognition, and with Janet Napolitano out of the way, he doesn't have to worry about a serious threat from a Democrat in the general election.

On a side note: regarding presidential elections again, I think the only way Republicans will hold onto Arizona in 2012 is if Obama becomes another Jimmy Carter, the economy tanks and Republicans come back into power in a repeat of the 1994 Republican Revolution. Either way, I won't be surprised if the pundits list Arizona as a swing state in 2012.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

John McCain is the greatest Senator from Arizona!

McCain is a slimebag!

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Fourth, yeah, interesting.  But at least we got rid of the "Sue Nation."

Fifth, Brewer probably isn't going to run for election after her campaign for higher taxes.

Sixth, Thomas is OK, but Gordon is slime.

[Mr.Phips]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Giffords have a tier 3 opponent.  If Tim Bee couldnt come close to beating her, this guy isnt either. 

[CARLHAYDEN]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Giffords have a tier 3 opponent.  If Tim Bee couldnt come close to beating her, this guy isnt either. 

I know both Tim and Keith, and Tim was (is) a putz (Keith's a good guy).

I reported on the campaign in 2008.

Giffords is bedoming arrogant and unresponsive to her constituents who are very unhappy with her and her activities as Nancy's little helper.

[Mr.Phips]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Giffords have a tier 3 opponent.  If Tim Bee couldnt come close to beating her, this guy isnt either. 

I know both Tim and Keith, and Tim was (is) a putz (Keith's a good guy).

I reported on the campaign in 2008.

Giffords is bedoming arrogant and unresponsive to her constituents who are very unhappy with her and her activities as Nancy's little helper.

You said the exact same thing in before 2008.   And you cannot say the same thing about Mitchell.  He voted against the stimulus, against the Obama budget, and against Cap and Trade. 

[nhmagic]

Is there a clear Democratic nominee to trash that RINO John McCain yet? Too bad Barack Obama chose Janet Napolitano for Secretary of Homeland Security.

1 - McCain is not a RINO, hes more of a liberal when republicans are in power and a conservative when they are out.  Yes he has some issues, but has been a fairly solid vote for us recently and I would prefer him any day over a dem nominee.

2 - Nappy (what this AZ resident and most other AZ residents call Napolitano) is not as strong of a candidate as the national talk suggests.  She left office with a gigantic budget gap and has raised different taxes including the state sales tax, tourism taxes, et. al.  Couple that with the vetos of voter passed initiatives - any candidate has a lot to run on.

3 - There is also a national dialogue that Arizona is a moderate and even liberal state now.  This is false.  Arizona only gets a few democrats when there are waves or when our governor has been scandalized, and even then, we've elected republicans.  Republicans control the state legislature and senate, along with the national senate, where we have one senator (Kyl) who is hardline conservative.  Giffords, Mitchell and Kirkpatrick will all be picked off in 2 - 6 years.  Mitchell will be the first to go. Even without McCain on the ticket, AZ would have likely still gone red because Maricopa county (the major population center) is deeply conservative.  The areas that help democrats are the indian reservations and Tucson, which is primarily a city that is made up of college students who dont leave.

4 - Isnt it weird that each of our last three governors have all had the first three letters (Jan) in their names and have all been women. (Jane Hull, Janet Napolitano, Jan Brewer)

5 - Brewer is in deep trouble unless she is able to deftly handle her inter-party enemies.  She also will have to overcome the fact that she wanted to raise the state sales tax (though she failed).  Terry Goddard our AG is an excellent candidate (and is the only democrat I have ever voted for).

6 - The real trash in our state is Andrew Thomas (R) and Phil Gordon (D) who are practically crime lords working together with their schemes.  Thomas was the one running against Goddard when I voted for Goddard.

First, McCain is a total slimebag!

Second, yes, Janet got out of Dodge before the budget she engineered collapsed.

Third, Giffords is going to go next year (Mitchell with probably join her).

Fourth, yeah, interesting.  But at least we got rid of the "Sue Nation."

Fifth, Brewer probably isn't going to run for election after her campaign for higher taxes.

Sixth, Thomas is OK, but Gordon is slime.

I wanted to address the "Arizona is becoming moderate" comments and your comments here.  The reason why Arizona is not moving on the political scale leftward is because we are receiving an influx of conservative voters ditching California for here.  If your only data points are the democrats who won election during democrat wave years and McCains national performance, you aren't paying attention to the ground level stuff going on here.  There has only been one democrat to take this prize in a long while and it was Bill Clinton, who was by 1996 for all intents and purposes campaigning more conservatively than Bob Dole was.  Anecdotally, we have some of the most conservative subsections of a major city in the entire country.  ASU in Tempe is one of the most conservative schools in the country - meaning there isnt just a single token conservative teaching there and the students are fairly conservative as well.  Scottsdale is full of rich, young and old conservatives and East Phoenix, where I live is old money.  Mesa is practically the second Salt Lake City without the beauty for all intents and purposes (and AZ residents will know what I mean when I say that).  Chandler and Gilbert are full of evangelical Christians and Mormons as well.  Even the Latinos here are fairly conservative.  Its actually interesting, some of the more rural (I should say foresty) areas are more liberal - like Sedona where the artists are.

And CarlHayden, love the name btw.  Remember Tokyo Rose Mofford.  I can't believe how beloved she is now.  Our governors tend to be really involved in the community.  Fife was even a chef at this restaurant by my work Francos, before it closed down.  Check your Thomas history though, he was involved in some money scandal awhile back, that he has now entirely covered up with the help of his buddy Gordon (who just happened to endorse Thomas in 2008 for county attorney and I think even did ads with him).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yeah, I remember 'beehive' Rose.

I agree with your most recent post (except the AG candidate part).

Oh, and btw, there is one thing I will never forgive Fife for, i.e. rescuing a SOB when Fife was a lifeguard.

Oh, and one significant factor you left out in Arizona's population growth is that a lot of members of the armed forces (Air Force, Army and Marines) are stationed at one time in Arizona, and end up buying houses and retiring here.  We have one of the highest rates of retired military in the general population of any state in the nation.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just curious, who is this magical Republican candidate that's going to defeat Giffords in 2010?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Arizona has a 'resign to run' law which states that if you are not in the last year of your term of office and you announce your candidacy, you forfeit your office.

So, you'll have to wait.

There is a line forming to get at Giffords, who has been antagonizing long time supporters with her arrogance and fawning on Pelosi.

Giffords seems to (erroneously) believe that a campaign war chest indicates one's likelihood of sucess in an election.

There was a candidate for the Democrat party nomination for Governor of Virginia this year who could disabuse her of that notion (but, she wouldn't listen).

[nhmagic]

There doesnt have to be a magical candidate to beat Giffords.  The AZ GOP bench is about as big as the state.  Even successful businessmen or could run and make it into congress.  I imagine there is an army of legislators in the state senate looking at the race.

[Hash]

Napolitano is an idiot.

[The Arizonan]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

[Person Man]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

[nhmagic]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

[Alexander Hamilton]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

I have liberal and conservative family in Tucson, but that is the liberal bastion of AZ. Also some more rural areas are surprisingly liberal.

[nhmagic]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

I have liberal and conservative family in Tucson, but that is the liberal bastion of AZ. Also some more rural areas are surprisingly liberal.

AZ in a nutshell:
Foresty areas - artists, Wiccans, communes with logging and other communities, balances out to a small liberal advantage
Urban areas - incredibly conservative whites and Mexicans, Scottsdale is full of rich white liberals, east Phoenix (where I am) are middle class conservatives, Chandler and Mesa are mormon and middle class meccas, Tempe (ASU) is full of conservative students and believe it or not professors, Tucson (U of A) the liberal college in Arizona
Rural areas without reservations - conservative
Rural areas with Indian reservations - liberal
Mining towns - conservative

[Alexander Hamilton]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

I have liberal and conservative family in Tucson, but that is the liberal bastion of AZ. Also some more rural areas are surprisingly liberal.

AZ in a nutshell:
Foresty areas - artists, Wiccans, communes with logging and other communities, balances out to a small liberal advantage
Urban areas - incredibly conservative whites and Mexicans, Scottsdale is full of rich white liberals, east Phoenix (where I am) are middle class conservatives, Chandler and Mesa are mormon and middle class meccas, Tempe (ASU) is full of conservative students and believe it or not professors, Tucson (U of A) the liberal college in Arizona
Rural areas without reservations - conservative
Rural areas with Indian reservations - liberal
Mining towns - conservative

yeah my grandpa went to u of a. my moms uncle was a draft dodger during nam but mo udall saved his ass.

[nhmagic]

John McCain is going to vote against Sotomayor. I bet that's going to heavily factor into his chances for reelection.

He will probably still win, but it will probably cost the RSCC money to retain him for the next congress.

Only if he has a primary challenge and even then.  The no vote on Sotomayor actually helps McCain - AZ is a very red state despite the rumors to the contrary.

I have liberal and conservative family in Tucson, but that is the liberal bastion of AZ. Also some more rural areas are surprisingly liberal.

AZ in a nutshell:
Foresty areas - artists, Wiccans, communes with logging and other communities, balances out to a small liberal advantage
Urban areas - incredibly conservative whites and Mexicans, Scottsdale is full of rich white liberals, east Phoenix (where I am) are middle class conservatives, Chandler and Mesa are mormon and middle class meccas, Tempe (ASU) is full of conservative students and believe it or not professors, Tucson (U of A) the liberal college in Arizona
Rural areas without reservations - conservative
Rural areas with Indian reservations - liberal
Mining towns - conservative

yeah my grandpa went to u of a. my moms uncle was a draft dodger during nam but mo udall saved his ass.

I go to ASU right now, my friends at U of A are incredibly socialist.  For some reason they love it and stay down there.  I don't know why, the place practically shuts down at 6pm and the rattlesnakes are pretty nasty there too - as a side note.