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  Experts say Peak Oil to happen in 10 years, no this is not a repeat from 2004..
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Author Topic: Experts say Peak Oil to happen in 10 years, no this is not a repeat from 2004..  (Read 1438 times)
dead0man
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« on: August 04, 2009, 06:38:20 am »

..or 2001 or 1991 or 1978 or 1973.

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GLOBAL oil production is likely to peak in about 10 years, a leading energy economist says.
The warning from the chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol comes as figures show Australia's crude production has fallen by 24.92 per cent in the past five years.

Domestic importation of oil is also predicted by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics to fall to 24,665 megalitres in 2008-09.

Dr Birol has warned a rise in oil demand and the subsequent price hike could wreck a potential recovery in the worldwide economy.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us,'' Dr Birol told British newspaper The Independent.

On the other hand, anybody that thinks we will "run out of oil" clearly isn't an expert.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2009, 08:21:52 am »
« Edited: August 04, 2009, 08:25:00 am by Jacobtm »

Img



Wherever the technical "peak" is, it seems like we pretty much plateaued for a while there.

Granted that for the past few decades oil infrastructure had been neglected, and with the recent oil boom exploration increased dramatically, but...
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King
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2009, 01:11:09 am »

Peak oil will probably occur during the end of days.

That's why it's hard to predict.
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dead0man
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2009, 01:13:59 am »

Or it's already occurred (or is currently occurring) and won't be the catastrophe it's fan boys have made it out to be.  Like most Chicken Little stories.
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War on Want
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2009, 01:20:11 am »

Peak Oil has already happened, I'd expect. We are experiencing the plateau of it, which should continue for quite some time.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2009, 09:16:15 am »

Or it's already occurred (or is currently occurring) and won't be the catastrophe it's fan boys have made it out to be.  Like most Chicken Little stories.

Recognizing that oil production will peak at some point doesn't mean that it'll be a "catastrophe". Of course, people are already researching dozens of ways to power cars, and as it becomes clear that oil produciton is static regardless of increasing demand, research into those ares will pick up.

While catastrophe is very subjective, I'm sure there will be a period of time--a few years at least-- where gasoline becomes more expensive than it's ever been but the capacity to really fuel cars using non-gasoline measures just isn't widespread yet.

Imagine gas at $6 a gallon, or even $10. That would seem like a crisis in the United States, but it would sure as hell make research into other fuels speed up.
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dead0man
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2009, 09:22:35 am »

Correct.  The Free Market will take care of it.
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2009, 10:45:08 am »

Correct.  The Free Market will take care of it.

Ugh. I'm not a fan of sky is falling nuts who rave about this, but this fundie Libertarian attitude that the free market fixes EVERYTHING is no better.
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dead0man
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2009, 11:27:39 am »

I don't recall putting the word EVERYTHING in my post.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2009, 01:34:09 pm »

Correct.  The Free Market will take care of it.

Ugh. I'm not a fan of sky is falling nuts who rave about this, but this fundie Libertarian attitude that the free market fixes EVERYTHING is no better.

BRTD

When energy prices recently spiked, you saw a huge boost in the amount of energy companies building wind farms to supply a greater proportion of their energy. You also saw oil companies investing in all sorts of various ways to fuel cars with less gasoline, from hybrids to ethanol to bio-diesel.

When people are paying $6 or more at the pump to go 25-50 miles in their automobile, there are alot of options that can compete with gasoline. They can't compete at $2 or $3 a gallon, but since gasoline will just keep going up over the long term, they will be able to compete soon, and when gas gets too expensive they will begin to replace it.

Granted, there will be a good while when gas is super expensive and the good alternatives aren't widespread, which will suck for us drivers, but it's not like it's any existential threat to our economy.
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dead0man
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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2018, 02:10:44 pm »

Weird, they weren't right this time either.  Maybe in another decade?
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