Joe Sestak 2016?

[TeePee4Prez]

The democrat machine definitely skews PA voting to the left in federal elections. PA would be about the most conservative state without the machines in Philly and Pitt. It's by no means as far to the left as NJ, DE, NY, MD, or CT. I want to see PA go GOP in 2012!

I wouldn't be so sure of that.  I would easily argue the Philadelphia suburbs might be as socially liberal or even more so than the city proper.  Unions and African Americans make it so Democratic.  And I wouldn't exactly call parts of the "T" that conservative.  You still have Harrisburg, State College, Scranton/Wilkes Barre, etc.  Even with the shift to the right in western PA, you still have many parts of the state shifting left easily offsetting that trend.  And per issue, PA IIRC ranked about #10 in the nation support of gay marriage and about #15 in support of abortion rights.  Has the entire upper Midwest beat except for Illinois and while not as liberal as those states you listed above, it certainly ranks right under them.  Not what I call a conservative state.   

[TeePee4Prez]

The democrat machine definitely skews PA voting to the left in federal elections. PA would be about the most conservative state without the machines in Philly and Pitt. It's by no means as far to the left as NJ, DE, NY, MD, or CT. I want to see PA go GOP in 2012!

I wouldn't be so sure of that.  I would easily argue the Philadelphia suburbs might be as socially liberal or even more so than the city proper.  Unions and African Americans make it so Democratic.  And I wouldn't exactly call parts of the "T" that conservative.  You still have Harrisburg, State College, Scranton/Wilkes Barre, etc.  Even with the shift to the right in western PA, you still have many parts of the state shifting left easily offsetting that trend.  And per issue, PA IIRC ranked about #10 in the nation support of gay marriage and about #15 in support of abortion rights.  Has the entire upper Midwest beat except for Illinois and while not as liberal as those states you listed above, it certainly ranks right under them.  Not what I call a conservative state.    

You forget that that still includes Urban Philly and Union Pittsburgh. The rest of the state, including SWB, State College, Harrisburg that you had mentioned has a moderate stance. Even  union dominated Allentown () had a Republican mayor as recently as 2002. And so the removal of Philadelphia that many small town Pennsylvanites long for would instantly make this already swing state a leaning republican state.

Oh, without Philly, PA would be a Republican-leaning state.  No arguments there.  But would it be Alabama?  Not even close.  PA's social liberalism is dominant in the gentrified parts of Philly and the suburbs.  The blue collar, white union areas I'd consider socially moderate with a good mix of secular and religious Catholics balancing each other out.  A lot of "ethnic Catholics" you hear about that supported Hillary Clinton aren't exactly taking the Church's stances word for word.  A good number of older Catholic women support the right to choose.  And the rest of the state, even in some of the whitest Central PA counties, still voted in the 30s and sometimes 40s for Obama.  Not the case in the Deep South taking out the black areas at all where it would be lucky to be double digits.

The GOP needs a good year and a moderate candidate to win the state.  Santorum had the luxury of a still GOP voting Philly suburbs with conservative, primarily Catholic Democratic base in SW and NE Penn voting for him in 1994 and 2000.  That won't be the case anymore.

[TeePee4Prez]

He will most likely lose this fall to Pat Toomey.

Even in the current highly favored GOP environment, it's a Tossup.  If Obama and the national Dems improve even slightly, Toomey is toast.  And while PA is more conservative than MA, it is not that much more and Toomey is no Scott Brown.  Scott Brown had the looks, charisma, and could play indie very well.  Toomey has a voting record to the right of Santorum to go by plus a Wall Street background.  Not exactly what steel mill and coal mining countries like with Wall Street, plus he has to overcome a strongly Democratic and populous Southeast.  I'll give the election to the Twitter Nazi/Healthcare Lawsuit Corbett right now, but then again I don't know what Kool Aid this state is drinking with him.