Czechoslovakia election in 1948 if no Communist coup

[rob in cal]

Assuming the non-communists do not foolishly leave the government in Febuary 1948, and new multi-party elections are held (I believe they would have been held some time in 1948), I'm wondering if a non-socialist/communist majority would have emerged. I recall reading about a poll showing a significant drop off of their support. The communist victory in 1946, with 38% of the vote was likely a high water mark, with the party basking in the prestige of the victorious red army, plus the fact that the minister of agriculture who was redistributing confiscated Sudeten farm land was a communist.  Assuming a non-socialist/communist majority could have won, perhaps Czechoslovakia could have carved out a Finland style degree of autonomy and freedom during the cold war.

[big bad fab]

Stalin would have found a way to steal the result.

He would not have tolerated Czechoslovakia to be a democracy inside the Soviet zone of influence, all the more a country abuting Ukraine and a country that made the continuity between East Germany-Poland and Hungary.
And, in Yalta and Potsdam, Western Allies had just acknowledeged the reality of Soviet influence.
They supported West Berlin but they wouldn't have supported a free democracy in Czechoslovakia, for fear of war.

Finland was different: no Soviet troops "liberated" it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, agreed with Fab.

[rob in cal]

However, in the Czech case, IIRC, there were no actual Soviet troops on the ground by 1948, they had evacuated the country earlier. I may be wrong on this, but thats what I remember, thinking that for that reason Czechoslovakia had some wiggle room, unlike Hungary, where the mostly non-communist government was trying to get the Soviets out of Hungary, but the Soviets kept coming up with excuses to stay.

[big bad fab]

However, in the Czech case, IIRC, there were no actual Soviet troops on the ground by 1948, they had evacuated the country earlier. I may be wrong on this, but thats what I remember, thinking that for that reason Czechoslovakia had some wiggle room, unlike Hungary, where the mostly non-communist government was trying to get the Soviets out of Hungary, but the Soviets kept coming up with excuses to stay.

You're right, I was just saying that Finland wasn't "liberated" by Soviet troops.
The point is the Allies agreed de facto on a Soviet influence zone based on the advance of Soviet troops.
Even if communists hadn't won 1948 elections, they would have find a way to impose their rule and, eventually, Western countries would have done nothing.

One weird possibility would have been for Moscow to support a break-up between Czech Republic and Slovakia, as the Communists would have had no problem to take power early in Slovakia alone.
It would have reminded of recent Slovak independence, but Stalin didn't bother with "small" contradictions....
Anyway, not very likely, as it would have been seen as a failure in Moscow.