Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely

[elcorazon]

fix your sig, vorlon.  Kerry only should have 216 I think.

[The Vorlon]

fix your sig, vorlon.  Kerry only should have 216 I think.

Darn - I added to 216, somebody told me it was wrong, so I "fixed" it.. the fix was wrong

[opebo]

HockeyDude, it's a well known fact that Republicans do worse in the polls on weekends.

Is that due to yahting, or golfing?

[A18]

It's probably due to the fact that Republicans have lives (I happen to be one of the exceptions)

[Rococo4]

HockeyDude, it's a well known fact that Republicans do worse in the polls on weekends.

Is that due to yahting, or golfing?

Golfing.  Thats what I did yesterday.  It was only us rich Republicans though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.

This suggests to me that:
1.) Kerry won the 2nd debate very narrowly
2.) Kerry won the post-debate spin by a wide margin

Just like in 2000 when immediately following the first debate a narrow majority thought Gore won, but after it filtered through the media, perceptions shifted toward Bush.  Apprently perceptions of the debate have shifted in Kerry's favor in the past couple days.

[The Vorlon]

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.

This suggests to me that:
1.) Kerry won the 2nd debate very narrowly
2.) Kerry won the post-debate spin by a wide margin

Just like in 2000 when immediately following the first debate a narrow majority thought Gore won, but after it filtered through the media, perceptions shifted toward Bush.  Apprently perceptions of the debate have shifted in Kerry's favor in the past couple days.

Todays ABC tracking poll said Kerry won Debate #2 by 35 / 32

Who Knows

[AuH2O]

Or Gallup just might be wrong. It showed Bush with wide leans that were panned by Democrats.

Now it shows Kerry doing better than most polls, and Gallup is the most wonderful thing ever.

So, which is it? Is Gallup wrong or what?

[mypalfish]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

[AuH2O]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

[Pollwatch99]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Welcome aboard.  Do you also do some campaigning for Kerry/Edwards?
10/3-10/5 in WI according to Gallup Bush+3.  Hard to believe that Bush/Cheney campaign workers in a state don't know the polls

[mypalfish]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

There are volunteers who give the standard "the only poll that counts is on election day" response, and then there are those of us who live and die by the polls (publically released and internal).  I fall into the second category.  The fact that viewership was so high for that first debate really hurt, imo.  It's hard to erase a rotten "first impression" as Gore found out in 2000 when he tried to make up for his sighing in the first debate.  I can't understand why Bush doesn't try to make some news instead of playing defense day in and day out.  All along we were were told Karl Rove had a few tricks  and surprises up his sleeve...well, WHERE ARE THEY!!?!?!

And there hasn't been a public poll out for Wisconsin in about a week....but we do have an idea on how the state has been trending in that time period.  If other Bush partisans want to stick their collective heads in the sand, go right ahead.  Rush Limbaugh has been wearing rose-colored glasses for months.  Today, however, he sounded dis-spirited and said he didn't know what to make out of the polls and had no clue what would happen on election day.   It's bad enough to have our headquaters "invaded" by AFL-CIO members and the cowards there not fight back and just sit and take the abuse, but to end up on the losing side in this election is just too much to take.

[??????????]

Bush will break 350 EVs. Mark my words here today.

[Pollwatch99]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

There are volunteers who give the standard "the only poll that counts is on election day" response, and then there are those of us who live and die by the polls (publically released and internal).  I fall into the second category.  The fact that viewership was so high for that first debate really hurt, imo.  It's hard to erase a rotten "first impression" as Gore found out in 2000 when he tried to make up for his sighing in the first debate.  I can't understand why Bush doesn't try to make some news instead of playing defense day in and day out.  All along we were were told Karl Rove had a few tricks  and surprises up his sleeve...well, WHERE ARE THEY!!?!?!

And there hasn't been a public poll out for Wisconsin in about a week....but we do have an idea on how the state has been trending in that time period.  If other Bush partisans want to stick their collective heads in the sand, go right ahead.  Rush Limbaugh has been wearing rose-colored glasses for months.  Today, however, he sounded dis-spirited and said he didn't know what to make out of the polls and had no clue what would happen on election day.   It's bad enough to have our headquaters "invaded" by AFL-CIO members and the cowards there not fight back and just sit and take the abuse, but to end up on the losing side in this election is just too much to take.

Get a grip on yourself.  Rasmussen had Bush+3 before the debate.
Gallup had Bush+3 after the debate.  Case closed

[Hegemon]

Here is the wording of Gallup's "who won the debate?" question:

"Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in last Friday’s debate: John Kerry or George W. Bush?"

FWIW, last week's Gallup poll, done over the weekend following the first debate, also showed a greatly increased margin of victory for Kerry in the debate  compared to the instant snap poll results.  Kerry won the snap poll 53%-37%,  but in the later 3 day poll, Kerry was deemed the winner over Bush  by a 57%-25% margin.

[Rococo4]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

hahah.....agreed.  every Bush supporter is feeling fine after debate #2

[HoopsCubs]

Bush will break 350 EVs. Mark my words here today.

Dream on.  Bush's ceiling is 310 and Kerry's is 295.

[A18]

Looks plausible to me. Though Michigan would have to be an upset.

[mypalfish]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

hahah.....agreed.  every Bush supporter is feeling fine after debate #2

Not really.  I'd say the mood was cautiously optimistic immediately after the second debate.  The first downer was when none of the snap-polls showed the President had won.  The second downer was hearing some internal numbers, and now the Zogby and Gallup surveys are confirming those internals.  You can go on feeling fine.  It's that lack of urgency that caused the miserable first debate showing.  If Bush had beaten Kerry there, the race was over.  Now it's the President who has to move the numbers...Kerry is in command for at the moment. 

And let's see how fine you feel when the next round of state polling comes out after Wednesday's debate.  If the internals are correct and nothing happens to change the equation, the results out of Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin will show a pretty big turn-around.

[Volrath50]

Bush will break 350 EVs. Mark my words here today.

Words marked. I will bump this thread if you are wrong.

[A18]

Whatever the exact numbers are at the moment, the fact seems to be that Bush has clearly lost all momentum, and there will have to be some major "October Surprise" to change the dynamic.  I do a little volunteering for Bush/Cheney in Wisconsin and you can't overestimate just how much damage that first debate did to the President.  Most, if not all, of the enthusiasm is gone now.  We'll see what happens, but I'm not optimistic and if you're a Kerry supporter, it looks like a lot of good news is ahead for you.

Either you're a troll or a sh**tty campaign volunteer.

Oh and welcome to the site.

hahah.....agreed.  every Bush supporter is feeling fine after debate #2

Not really.  I'd say the mood was cautiously optimistic immediately after the second debate.  The first downer was when none of the snap-polls showed the President had won.  The second downer was hearing some internal numbers, and now the Zogby and Gallup surveys are confirming those internals.  You can go on feeling fine.  It's that lack of urgency that caused the miserable first debate showing.  If Bush had beaten Kerry there, the race was over.  Now it's the President who has to move the numbers...Kerry is in command for at the moment. 

And let's see how fine you feel when the next round of state polling comes out after Wednesday's debate.  If the internals are correct and nothing happens to change the equation, the results out of Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin will show a pretty big turn-around.

Don't you have anything better to do than pretend your a Bush volunteer? Go to DemocraticUnderground or something.

[AuH2O]

Yeah I concur he's a troll.

Any Republican citing Zogby...

Any rational person saying 'Kerry is in command' (we've heard that one before)

Anyone that seems to forget Gore lost the debates and WON THE POPULAR VOTE- he just got unlucky in Florida...

[mypalfish]

Yeah I concur he's a troll.

Any Republican citing Zogby...

Any rational person saying 'Kerry is in command' (we've heard that one before)

Anyone that seems to forget Gore lost the debates and WON THE POPULAR VOTE- he just got unlucky in Florida...

Gore only won the popular vote (and should have won Fla) because of the DUI bomb the week before the election.  Without that "october surprise" Bush wins without any controversy, imo.  And this year, we have no bombshells to drop that will move the numbers.   

[A18]

Because you, as a Bush volunteer, would certainly be let in on all the top secrets like an October surprise

[J. J.]

You going to see fluxuations until after the first debate, about a week.  In 2000, Bush was up, in some cases by ten points on the Gallup tracking polls; those numbers evaporated.  You are looking vairous slight bounces that the polls are catching and are ephemeral.

I was saying this before the first debate.  Stop getting so hyper, everybody.