Venezuela

[WMS]

I honestly think nothing like that will happen. And if it happens, Chavez will be completely isolated and loose power rather quickly.

Well, isolation hasn't worked on Fidel Castro, in part because so much of the world loves to show how anti-American it is by fawning over his regime...I worry that we're witnessing the rise of another Cuba.

But this one comes 40 years late... I don´t think it´s a likely scenario.

Well, we'll see. I think Chavez *wants* to become another Castro, although he may just be deluded enough to stumble into a shooting war with Colombia, given his support for the FARC and ELN, and that would probably bring his regime down. But still, all those Canadian, European, and Third World tourists going to Cuba in defiance of U.S. wishes have kept Castro in there another 15 years so far...

[WMS]

Just some snippets from Stratfor:

"Although various polls, both independent and partisan, indicate the president has a 4 percent to 9 percent lead going into the referendum, the vote will be close. Chavez's manipulation of the media, of voter registration and of potential voters themselves, however, assures him a win."

"The poorer sectors of society, however, will side with the president -- some through true conviction, others out of gratitude or fear. Although the middle class is another sector most likely to vote with the opposition, many citizens will refrain from voting due to the potential for violence and fear of losing their jobs if they openly oppose the president."

"Indeed, Chavez has used the long -- and powerful -- arm of the presidency to help ensure the balloting goes his way. Since the referendum was announced June 8, he has made good on a campaign promise by multiplying funding for government programs five-fold. His spending spree -- clearly initiated in an effort to increase his support -- has been funded by high oil prices. The plan worked. Polls show a more than 5 percent rise in his popularity since February."

"Additionally, he has upped his national exposure through nationwide television broadcasts of commencement speeches and other ordinary appearances. The opposition has protested such moves, saying the TV appearances are actually campaign speeches and thus are in violation of National Election Committee rules. The national media, meanwhile, focused on break-ins at military armories, implicating military officers supporting the opposition in the thefts."

"On the other hand, there is concern that many citizens, especially the poor, have been subjected to a campaign of bribery and/or intimidation to ensure their support on Aug. 15. Also, beginning in early August, Chavez supporters and national guardsmen systematically destroyed opposition propaganda booths and literature, injuring opposition supporters -- and instilling further fears over the harmony of the voting process itself."

"More than that, however, is the growing fear among many middle-class voters. Many signatories of the recall petition have lost jobs, scholarships -- and even their lives. The results of this referendum, in fact, could rest on the number of people, especially middle-class voters, who will stay clear of voting sites on Aug. 15 for fear of retaliation from local leaders or Chavez supporters. The implementation of electronic voting machines also has many people worried about the possibility that their votes could be tracked back to them. Opposition groups did announce Aug. 10 they will protect voters' names, but this move might have come too late."

"Chavez's policies, however, have alienated many countries, which now are looking elsewhere for oil. Sources within the U.S. Department of Energy indicate that the United States no longer considers Venezuela as a viable option for augmenting the shaky supply of oil from the Middle East."

Democracy? HAH! Yet another Third World election tained with corruption and intimidation...and because Chavez is an anti-American lefty, way too many people will give him a pass. And Venezuela will fall further towards tyranny...

[YoMartin]

Just some snippets from Stratfor:

"Although various polls, both independent and partisan, indicate the president has a 4 percent to 9 percent lead going into the referendum, the vote will be close. Chavez's manipulation of the media, of voter registration and of potential voters themselves, however, assures him a win."

"The poorer sectors of society, however, will side with the president -- some through true conviction, others out of gratitude or fear. Although the middle class is another sector most likely to vote with the opposition, many citizens will refrain from voting due to the potential for violence and fear of losing their jobs if they openly oppose the president."

"Indeed, Chavez has used the long -- and powerful -- arm of the presidency to help ensure the balloting goes his way. Since the referendum was announced June 8, he has made good on a campaign promise by multiplying funding for government programs five-fold. His spending spree -- clearly initiated in an effort to increase his support -- has been funded by high oil prices. The plan worked. Polls show a more than 5 percent rise in his popularity since February."

"Additionally, he has upped his national exposure through nationwide television broadcasts of commencement speeches and other ordinary appearances. The opposition has protested such moves, saying the TV appearances are actually campaign speeches and thus are in violation of National Election Committee rules. The national media, meanwhile, focused on break-ins at military armories, implicating military officers supporting the opposition in the thefts."

"On the other hand, there is concern that many citizens, especially the poor, have been subjected to a campaign of bribery and/or intimidation to ensure their support on Aug. 15. Also, beginning in early August, Chavez supporters and national guardsmen systematically destroyed opposition propaganda booths and literature, injuring opposition supporters -- and instilling further fears over the harmony of the voting process itself."

"More than that, however, is the growing fear among many middle-class voters. Many signatories of the recall petition have lost jobs, scholarships -- and even their lives. The results of this referendum, in fact, could rest on the number of people, especially middle-class voters, who will stay clear of voting sites on Aug. 15 for fear of retaliation from local leaders or Chavez supporters. The implementation of electronic voting machines also has many people worried about the possibility that their votes could be tracked back to them. Opposition groups did announce Aug. 10 they will protect voters' names, but this move might have come too late."

"Chavez's policies, however, have alienated many countries, which now are looking elsewhere for oil. Sources within the U.S. Department of Energy indicate that the United States no longer considers Venezuela as a viable option for augmenting the shaky supply of oil from the Middle East."

Democracy? HAH! Yet another Third World election tained with corruption and intimidation...and because Chavez is an anti-American lefty, way too many people will give him a pass. And Venezuela will fall further towards tyranny...

You know I´m not pro-Chavez, and that I want him to loose, but I think your source completely exaggerates the situation. If he had this kind of control over the situation there wouldn´t even be a referendum. And the -sad- truth is that he is up in the polls, even with all private media completely against him. I fear that the opposition won´t accept the results, and that after being legitimated by the election Chavez´s authoritarian tendencies will grow...

[WMS]

You know I´m not pro-Chavez, and that I want him to loose, but I think your source completely exaggerates the situation. If he had this kind of control over the situation there wouldn´t even be a referendum. And the -sad- truth is that he is up in the polls, even with all private media completely against him. I fear that the opposition won´t accept the results, and that after being legitimated by the election Chavez´s authoritarian tendencies will grow...

I was hoping I'd get a response from you. Stratfor's been pretty good about their predictions - including the 'no, the war in Afghanistan isn't over yet' from early 2002, or the 'yes, there could be trouble in Iraq after the U.S. takes Baghdad' from early 2003. That's better than the Bush Admin has done. Chavez doesn't - yet - have full control over the situation, but I think he certainly tries to at every opportunity, through fair means and foul. He's up partly through the *government* money he's spending on bribes public support, partly through the intimidation of his Bolivarian Circles, and partly because the opposition is a disunified mess. He does not have the support of the middle class, which strongly indicates that if he stays in power, Venezuela's economy is going to decline further (oil revenues won't last forever). And I COMPLETELY agree with your last sentence! It's not looking good down there - and my point about all the people giving Chavez a break because he's anti-American stands.

[minionofmidas]

58,25%

[WMS]

Given that this topic has somehow mutated and spread to two other areas, I think I'll reply there. Let's just say that I'm very dubious about both sides' claims...

[Esteban Manuel]

Related with the result of the referendum to me is clear that (like it or not) Chavez win fairly. That the reason of the landslide were populism, spoil-system and the the turnout don't change the fact that (as Carter center said) the result is legitimate.

[WMS]

Related with the result of the referendum to me is clear that (like it or not) Chavez win fairly. That the reason of the landslide were populism, spoil-system and the the turnout don't change the fact that (as Carter center said) the result is legitimate.

Esteban, first, go over to the International Politics board for a fun, freewheeling discussion on this!

I have my doubts about the vote. It seems to me that both the OAS and the Carter Center (and the Bush Admin, actually) wanted Chavez to win so that this mess could 'go away', so I'm inclined not to utterly trust them on this one.

Now, from the AP (after a few days these stories won't be free so get 'em while they're hot!):

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/V/VENEZUELA_RECALL?SITE=NMALJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

"Dozens have died in political violence in recent years. On Monday, gunmen fired on an opposition protest, killing a woman and injuring six people."

Yeah, the Chavistas are such democrats...

"The referendum was carried out on touchscreen voting machines, which produced a paper receipt of each vote, much like an ATM. Voters then deposited the receipts into a ballot box.

An OAS spokesman, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said international observers would begin the audit of 150 stations on Wednesday, comparing the paper receipts with the electronically registered ones, to make sure they conform."

Pardon me while I laugh. Touchscreen voting machines? Aren't these supposed to be inherently unreliable, or something...?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/V/VENEZUELA_WORLD_VIEW?SITE=NMALJ&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

"Cuba's communist government and Spain's left-leaning parties said the triumph confirmed the legitimacy of Chavez's government, arguing that it could jump start leftist movements across the region."

I am shocked, shocked at this news!

"Birns predicted that Chavez will now move to "open the door to more events in which Cuba will play an increasingly important role" - perhaps even membership in the Mercosur trade bloc of other South American countries."

Yes, Latin America, let's kiss up to the most repressive country in the Western Hemisphere! And mouth anti-American platitudes all the while!

[There's a lot more on various countries' reactions in this story, so I suggest everyone take a look at it...I note China, Russia, and "several Arabic countries" were happy as well...]

And the odd bit from Reuters...

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=6012050&section=news

"Opposition leaders on Wednesday refused to take part in the audit because they said it could not properly investigate the referendum which gave victory to Chavez, a left-wing former army paratrooper first elected in 1998.

They charged at least 500 polling stations out of 12,000 nationwide used voting machines preprogrammed with an artificial cap to limit the number of votes cast in favor of recalling Chavez."

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=5982897&section=news

"Shortly before Carrasquero made the announcement, two members of the five-member National Electoral Council leadership said they could not back the result.

Ezequiel Zamora and Solbella Mejias, both known opposition sympathizers, said procedural checks had not been carried out on the results as required.

'These partial results that part of the National Electoral Council wants to present to the public cannot be considered official," Mejias said. '"

Hmm...maybe they're right, maybe they're not, but this idea that the election is perfectly clean, without a doubt...?  

58% is too high. While it's possible Chavez might have squeaked through, he ain't that popular.

And in any event, this isn't going to resolve anything. Except perhaps the veracity of touchscreen voting machines...or are they only good in Venezuela and not in the U.S.?

Whee! Watch the chaos intensify!

[Jens]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=5982897&section=news

"Shortly before Carrasquero made the announcement, two members of the five-member National Electoral Council leadership said they could not back the result.

Ezequiel Zamora and Solbella Mejias, both known opposition sympathizers, said procedural checks had not been carried out on the results as required.

'These partial results that part of the National Electoral Council wants to present to the public cannot be considered official," Mejias said. '"

Hmm...maybe they're right, maybe they're not, but this idea that the election is perfectly clean, without a doubt...?  

58% is too high. While it's possible Chavez might have squeaked through, he ain't that popular.

And in any event, this isn't going to resolve anything. Except perhaps the veracity of touchscreen voting machines...or are they only good in Venezuela and not in the U.S.?

Whee! Watch the chaos intensify!

I think that given the circumstances, there can be no doubt that the majority voted for the president. I am quite sure that some of the irreguralities reported by the opposition did take place, but not in a way that affected the overall result of the referendum. Both sides bribed and threatened whenever there was an opportunity.
( Don't tell me that the opposition are nice and peaceloving fellars that only wan't to do the best for their country. They split the power between themself for 50 years and didn't to anything for the part for the population that today support Chavez)

Both sides needs to respect the rules of democracy!!

[WMS]

Jens...check out International Politics...there's another big thread there on this as well! If you've already done this, then obviously you can disregard this...

[Jens]

Jens...check out International Politics...there's another big thread there on this as well! If you've already done this, then obviously you can disregard this...

Thanks. Saw it (but after having written my little story and very late in the night )

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice to see you back Jens!

[Jens]

Nice to see you back Jens!

Thanks

[WMS]

Yes, I moved this from International Elections to International Politics...seemed better here.

And something new:
-----
Andres Oppenheimer
The Miami Herald
Posted on Sun, Sep. 19, 2004
Chávez moves ahead with elected dictatorship

Writing from Venezuela last month, I suggested that leftist populist President Hugo Chávez would behave like an altar boy for a few months if he won the Aug. 15 referendum, and then unleash his totalitarian instincts as soon as world attention turned elsewhere. I was wrong: The change happened much sooner.

Last week, amid still-to-be-proved opposition charges that he stole the Aug. 15 vote, an influential pro-Chávez legislator in Congress announced a push for an amendment of the Venezuelan Constitution that would allow Chávez to be reelected ad infinitum, much like Cuba's president-for-life Fidel Castro.

Chávez, who has said he wants to remain in power until 2021, has remained noncommittal about the constitutional amendment, saying it's something to be decided ``later on.''

The constitutional changes proposed by pro-Chávez legislator Luis Velásquez Alvaray and endorsed by Chávez's Fifth Republic Movement leader William Lara would change Article 230 of the constitution, which states that the president serves a term of six years and ''can be reelected immediately for a new term, only for one time.'' The text would be modified to eliminate the words ``and only for one time.''

As reported by the Caracas daily El Nacional, the explanatory section of the bill says that it's the sovereign right of the people ``to be able to extend [the president's term] for the consecutive periods it deems convenient or necessary for the interests of the country. No law, and much less one of constitutional rank, can put obstacles to such exercise of sovereignty.''

The proposed constitutional amendment comes after two Chávez-backed legislative proposals that are likely to be passed by Congress shortly: a new press law putting restrictions on what private television networks can say, and a separate national police law that would create a national police force, thus stripping opposition mayors from running their cities' police forces.

Earlier this year, Chávez already took what may be the most dangerous step toward an ''elected dictatorship'': He expanded the Supreme Court from 20 to 32 members, stacking it with his loyalists. Now, a solidly pro-Chávez Supreme Court will be the ultimate judge on issues such as Chávez's reelection and press censorship.

Government critics say Chávez is behind the bill to amend the constitution. But Chávez-backed National Assembly President Francisco Ameliach took distance from the project late last week, suggesting that the pro-Chávez camp is, at least in public, divided over the issue.

On Friday, I called the man who probably knows Chávez best: Luís Miquilena, his former mentor, campaign chief and interior minister. Miquilena, who quit in 2002 as the undisputed No. 2 in the Chávez government, told me from his home in Caracas the 1999 Constitution drafted by Chávez and Miquilena ``is becoming a nuisance to Chávez.''

Miquilena, a former Communist Party leader who took Chávez under his wing after the 1992 coup attempt, says Chávez may not have ordered his congressman to draft the bill, but he is giving him his tacit approval.

''It's a trial balloon, aimed at creating the necessary climate for a third reelection,'' Miquilena said. ``A move like that needs a lot of lobbying, and Chávez is probably letting this proposal float to see how it goes, and act accordingly.''

I agree. It has been Chávez's pattern to allow his supporters to propose controversial moves, then embrace them if they fly, or disown them if they don't. Chávez takes two steps forward, and then -- when the world cries foul -- one backward.

But overall, he's moving forward with his authoritarian project, which despite benefiting from an unprecedented oil-income bonanza has left Venezuela poorer, with greater unemployment, more divided and more dependent on his political handouts than when he took office five years ago.
-----------
Told ya so...

[WMS]

And a few more portents...

www.strategypage.com, center-to-moderate military conservative lean, but they cover things no one else does.

"September 24, 2004: The Venezuelan border is becoming a very dangerous , and confusing, place, with several different Colombian and Venezuelan rebel groups operating there, in addition to Colombian and Venezuelan soldiers and police. People are getting killed, and no one is quite sure who did the killing. Although Venezuela denies it, Colombian rebel groups have been tolerated on the Venezuelan side of the border for years." <--- You know, I keep saying that prick Chavez is going to drag Venezuela and Colombia into a war, but some people don't listen.

"September 27, 2004: Reports from Colombian and American sources indicate that Venezuela has closed a deal for 50 Russian MiG-29 fighters (40 single-seat, 10 two-seat trainers). This is a huge purchase for Venezuela, which currently operates 18 American F-5a, 15 French Mirage 5s, and 18 American F-16A combat planes, with a mixture of trainers (2 F-5B, 2 Mirage 5, 6 F-16B – the F-16Bs are fully combat-capable).

The Venezuelan MiG-29s will outclass anything in current South American air forces. Colombia operates second-hand Kfirs (an Israeli derivative of the French Mirage powered by an American J79 turbojet), and Peru operates an older version of the MiG-29 (anywhere from 16 to 28, the latter figure is often claimed by the Ecuadorians – who operate Kfirs). The MiG-29SMTs Venezuela has purchased are capable of carrying the extended-range Russian AA-10 air-to-air missile, with a 20 percent greater range than American AMRAAM. The AA-10, though, uses the older, and less effective, semi-active radar guidance. The MiG-29's other major air-to-air weapons are the Russian R-73E heat seeker (AA-11 Archer), the best dogfight missile in the world, and the R-77/RVV-AE (AA-12 Adder) – a fire-and-forget air-to-air missile comparable to the AMRAAM (90% of the range and 1,000 kilometers per hour slower). Other weapons the MiG-29SMT carries include the Kh-29 TV-guided missile (AS-14 Kedge) and Kh-31 anti-ship/anti-radar missile (two versions of the AS-17 Krypton). The Krypton is fast – with a speed of Mach 4.5 due to a rocket/ramjet propulsion, and has a range of 110 kilometers. It is best described as an equivalent to the American HARM, albeit it is much more versatile (it also has an anti-AWACS version with a 200-kiometer range).

Venezuela's air force could use the upgrades the MiGs represent. The F-5 and Mirage 5 are very old planes (first deployed in the 1960s), and the Venezuelan F-16 force is suffering from a lack of spare parts since relations with the United States cooled down during Hugo Chavez's emerging dictatorship. Venezuelan officials have said the planes are intended to protect the Panama Canal – but they won't say who they intend to protect it from. – Harold C. Hutchison (hchutch@ix.netcom.com)" <--- Now what the hell is THIS about?

And an oldie but goodie:
"Cuba's Stealthy Special Forces
by James Dunnigan
April 7, 2004

Cuba has gone the American Special Forces one better, and developed a cheap, effective to spread the ideas of communist revolution without using highly trained soldiers. Instead, the Cubans send "Medical Brigades" of underemployed doctors and medical technicians to poor countries that need the medical assistance, but are not as keen on the revolutionary propaganda the accompanies the medical care. Cuba offers the medical services at bargain prices (sometimes for free), with the propaganda seen, by the patients, as the equivalent of commercials on TV (a necessary evil.) Cuba currently has medical "brigades" (of 200-1,000 personnel each) in Haiti, Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, Ghana and Zimbabwe. Cuba has also sent Medical Brigades to other countries for limited periods, to help deal with natural disasters. The medical brigades have been out there for over two decades.

Cuba, one of the few communist dictatorships left, is sticking to its revolutionary principles. That means the place is a police state, the economy is a mess and the government still wants to export these revolutionary ideas to other countries. Since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, and withdrew billions of dollars a year in subsidies for their communist showcase in the Caribbean, the Cuban economy has shrunk by 40 percent. Currently, the main source of foreign currency (with which to buy foreign goods, like medicine) is gifts of cash sent by relatives in the United States.
 
But one thing the Cubans have maintained since before the 1959 revolution is the highest level of medical care in Latin America. At the time of the revolution, Cuba had the lowest infant mortality rate in Latin America (and the 13th lowest in the world), and the third highest number of physicians and dentists per capita (comparable to the Netherlands and higher than in the United Kingdom). Since the revolution, Cuba has produced more doctors, built more hospitals and clinics and managed to keep the level of medical care high. Well, at least primary medical care. Cubas communist economy could not produce the foreign currency needed to buy a lot of medical equipment and medicines. Some hospitals have this stuff, but these are reserved for senior members of the Communist Party.

Cuba's communist government also built a lot of schools, and increased it's literacy rate, which was already one of the highest in Latin America before the revolution. But food consumption per capita has declined, as has access to media (which is all state controlled) and consumer goods. Except for the elite of the Communist Party, everyone is now poor. Being offered an assignment in a foreign country, to provide medical care, was an offer few Cuban medical professionals could turn down. In addition to more food, access to more media, making more money than at home and a chance to do good works, there was also the possibility of defection.

There was a catch, of course. Many of the administrative members of the brigades belonged to the secret police. These "minders" were there to make sure brigade members gave their patients a dose of pro-Cuba communist propaganda along with the medical care. The minders also kept on the lookout for defectors. While it was easier to defect when outside Cuba, arrangements had been made with the local governments to help the Cuban government retrieve any of its citizens who attempted to break their contract with the brigade. That contract often included financial arrangements with the host country that paid the Cuban government a lot more than the $30 a month they paid doctors back in Cuba. The brigade personnel were made to understand that things could go badly for their families if they tried to defect.

The purpose of the brigades, in addition to providing medical care where it was needed, and making money for the cash starved communist government back home, was to make communist Cuba look good, to encourage local people to follow revolutionary Cuba's example, and to collect detailed military and political intelligence on the host country.

Nowhere has this worked out better than in Venezuela, where the largest Medical Brigade (over a thousand personnel) is providing medical care, and political indoctrination, to those Venezuelans who need it most. But the current president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez, has most of the population trying to get him thrown out of office. When Chavez was elected in 1999, he promised a revolutionary program to clean up the corrupt and inefficient practices that had long hampered the economy's growth. Chavez was revolutionary all right, but he trashed the economy, using it more for patronage than any of his predecessors. A compelling speaker, Chavez also stirred up class war, telling poor Venezuelans that all their problems could be blamed on the rich. Three years ago, Chavez made a deal with Cuba to supply cut rate oil (worth half a billion dollars a year at market rates.) Cuba paid for little of the oil, now owes nearly $800 million and is not expected to ever pay the debt (mainly because Cuba simply hasn't got the cash.) In addition to the medical brigade, Cuba has sent military, police, political and media advisors to help Chavez out. Who says dictators (even elected ones) don't have friends?

The Cuban Medical Brigades are doing what the American Peace Corps was always accused of doing (mixing politics, espionage and good works.) But the majority of Peace Corps volunteers were either neutral, or leftist, politically. Hardly good recruiting material for a covert operation. Actually, many Peace Corps veterans did later go to work for the CIA. But when they were in the Peace Corps, they concentrated on helping the people of their host country, not working to spread revolution and financially prop up a police state back home.

Cuba does have about a thousand military "Special Forces" troops, and these are often used to teach the techniques of guerilla warfare and terrorism in foreign countries. "

More tidbits when I can find them...

[Jens]

I'd say that that Dunnigan fellow is just "slightly" biased

[WMS]

I'd say that that Dunnigan fellow is just "slightly" biased

Just a tad...although I do think he's right about Cuba's use of "humanitarian" aid. Honestly, the same people who express rampant suspicion about good deeds that the U.S. does will believe Castro in a second...

And I'm keeping my eye on Venezuela...