India elections

[minionofmidas]

After the second round of polling, exit polls are proclaiming the following...
The Chandrababu Naidu government is toast; Congress/TRS sweep the state and according to some firms will get as many seats as TDP/BJP got last time.
It's down to the wire in Karnataka, with the JD (S) likely picking up a number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Patnaik can sleep soundly in Orissa.
BJP/SHS and INC/NCP will have roughly equal numbers of seats in Maharashtra.
My UP predictions won't come to pass, the election is going much better than I expected for both Congress and the Bahusan Samaj.
Bihar will be a RLD/INC victory, but maybe not by the kind of margin I envisage.
The NDA will either just about make it to a second term or there'll be a hung Lok Sabha with the NDA the strongest camp. The latter is looking likelier by the day.
The most NDA-unfriendly of the polling firm results I see quoted is very close to my prediction! NDTV say NDA 235-255, Congress & Allies 190-210, others 100-120.

[dunn]

nice

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After the second round of polling, exit polls are proclaiming the following...
The Chandrababu Naidu government is toast; Congress/TRS sweep the state and according to some firms will get as many seats as TDP/BJP got last time.
It's down to the wire in Karnataka, with the JD (S) likely picking up a number of seats in the Lok Sabha.
Patnaik can sleep soundly in Orissa.
BJP/SHS and INC/NCP will have roughly equal numbers of seats in Maharashtra.
My UP predictions won't come to pass, the election is going much better than I expected for both Congress and the Bahusan Samaj.
Bihar will be a RLD/INC victory, but maybe not by the kind of margin I envisage.
The NDA will either just about make it to a second term or there'll be a hung Lok Sabha with the NDA the strongest camp. The latter is looking likelier by the day.
The most NDA-unfriendly of the polling firm results I see quoted is very close to my prediction! NDTV say NDA 235-255, Congress & Allies 190-210, others 100-120.

No NDA majority?

[minionofmidas]

They won't miss it by much, they'll just have to rope in a few more partners...but still, it's nice.

[ShapeShifter]

It doesn't matter

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It doesn't matter

What doesn't matter?

[dunn]

It doesn't matter

What doesn't matter?

lol

[ShapeShifter]

It doesn't matter

What doesn't matter?

It doesn't matter in that both are acceptable choices.

[opebo]

I like BJP.  Vagpie in particular.

[minionofmidas]

Just quoting Reuter's...
"India's mammoth election campaign drew to a close on Saturday with both main parties trading insults as exit and opinion polls showed a close race to the finish line."
and...
"The NDA's campaign motto 'India Shining' appears to have backfired among the rural impoverished masses, many of whom feel excluded from an economic recovery that has mainly benefited the urban middle class."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just quoting Reuter's...
"India's mammoth election campaign drew to a close on Saturday with both main parties trading insults as exit and opinion polls showed a close race to the finish line."
and...
"The NDA's campaign motto 'India Shining' appears to have backfired among the rural impoverished masses, many of whom feel excluded from an economic recovery that has mainly benefited the urban middle class."

I thought that "India Shining" might backfire... "you've never had it so good" campaigning usually backfires...
D'ya reckon that an urban-rural split might be large?

[minionofmidas]

Gee...I dunno. In some parts, yeah. Karnataka's JD (S) gains won't be anywhere urban, for example. Elsewhere, it's always been there: Hyderabad votes Islamist, for example. Elsewhere again, maybe not: Madras shouldn't vote so different from the rest of Tamil Nadu. Never has in the past, anyways. Delhi is it's own state, so you can't really judge. Calcutta already is the most NDA-friendly part, okay the only NDA-friendly part, of West Bengal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gee...I dunno. In some parts, yeah. Karnataka's JD (S) gains won't be anywhere urban, for example. Elsewhere, it's always been there: Hyderabad votes Islamist, for example. Elsewhere again, maybe not: Madras shouldn't vote so different from the rest of Tamil Nadu. Never has in the past, anyways. Delhi is it's own state, so you can't really judge. Calcutta already is the most NDA-friendly part, okay the only NDA-friendly part, of West Bengal.

Interesting. Thanks

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Counting has begun...

Results so far

Congress and Allies: 89 seats
NDA: 68 seats
Others: 29 seats

186 declared out of a total of 543 seats

[minionofmidas]

Tallys of who leads where show a likely Congress win!

In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK and BJP may be left without a single seat. In Delhi, Congress is set to take 6 out of 7. Rajasthan stuck to the BJP. More soon...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC is reporting that Vajpayee is to resign!

Results so far [210/543]:

Congress and Allies: 105
NDA: 74
Others: 31

[minionofmidas]

M hm. Fernandes said that much in a press conference.

[minionofmidas]

Left Front headed for best result ever from Kerala.

[minionofmidas]

The Election commission has fewer announced results than you do...
INC 54
BJP 44
INC allies 22
BJP allies 11
Left 8
others 4

[minionofmidas]

The BJP appear to be winning in Karnataka.
Out of 55 announced Assembly constituencies, they took 28, Congress 17, JD (S) 8, JD (U) 1, an Independent 1.
Andhra Pradesh assembly is already fully counted out...
INC 186
TDP 45
TRS 26
CPM 9
CPI 6
AIMIM 5
BJP a paltry 2
JP 2, BSP 1, SP 1, independents 11
In tiny Sikkim, the SDF has won all 26 (of 32) segments announced.
There are only four results from Orissa yet, so the BJD 2, BJP 1, INC 1 tally doesn't mean a thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results so far [according to BBC]:

Arunachal Pradesh: BJP 1, LJNSP 1
Bihar: BJP 1
Chhattisgarh: BJP 2
Madhya Pradesh: BJP 6, INC 1
Uttar Pradesh: SP 1, INC 1
Haryana: INC 1
H Pr'desh: INC 1
Punjab: SAD 2
Rajasthan: BJP 14, INC 3
Goa: BJP 1, INC 1
Gujarat: INC 12, BJP 11
Maharashtra: INC 8, NCP 7, SHS 6, BJP 8
Andhra Pradesh: INC 29, TDP 5, TRS 5, CPI 1, CPM 1
Karnataka: BJP 4
Kerala: CPM 3, JD(S) 1, Ind 1
Tamil Nadu: DMK 7, INC 7, CPI 2, CPM 2, PMK 1

[??????????]

I heard the Ghandis are coming back into power there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results so far:

INC and Allies: 212
NDA: 179
Others: 133

524/543

[??????????]

What party is Ghandi in?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What party is Ghandi in?

Congress (INC)