France 1988, Rocard-Barre or other scenarios

[big bad fab]

What if Mitterrand decides not to seek another term because of health reasons ?

What if Barre makes it to the run-off ?

Of course you may disagree with the fact that Barre is in the 2nd round...

In any scenario, Rocard makes it to the run-off, as he is the only big candidate on the left. Or not ?
Maybe an old mitterrandist can be candidate, based on the hate of Rocard inside the PS.

Well, it's up to you !

[Antonio the Sixth]

I would love Rocard as President.

Anyways, I don't know who would win : both had a lot of political capital in this time.

[big bad fab]

Maybe Mitterrand would have convinced an old loyal guy to try to kill Rocard: Mermaz or Joxe, for example, but they would have been crushed I think.
At the time, he wouldn't have been able to put Kouchner or Tapie (as he did with Tapie in 1994 European elections, killing Rocard for ever).

So, Rocard would have made to the 2nd round, I think, but not with the big Mitterrand score of RL. Many socialists would have hurt him (if Mermaz or Joxe would have been candidate, he would have made something like 7-8%).
More something like 26-28%.

Juquin may have found a bigger space at the left of the PS and reached 5-6%.
Lajoinie wouldn't have been able to grasp more votes...

Le Pen would have gathered even more than he did, maybe 16%.

But at least one of the two mainstream right candidates would have been able to be above Le Pen.
I'm not so sure Barre would have won over Chirac.
Barre was a quite bad campaigner.
Rocard would have been as centre-left in his campaign as Mitterrand. So, Barre wouldn't have "stolen" so many votes.

Let's assume he would have done so enough to be at 21%, with Chirac 18%, Le Pen 16%, Rocard 26%, Juquin 6%, Lajoinie 7%, Laguiller 2%, Waechter 4%, Boussel almost 0%.

In the second round, I think Barre would have been a less bad campaigner, even if, as I have said in another topic, he could have been a really bad one.

Rocard was hard to follow when he spoke. He would have been seen as too centrist by far-leftist voters. He would have had problems of organizing an efficient campaign.

Barre was quieter. He hadn't bad relations with Le Pen (he was neutral...). Chirac would have tried to avenge himself like in 1981, but it wouldn't have resulted in "revolutionary" votes from French right people, as, after 7 years of Mitterrand, many rightist voters (those of Chirac) would have wished hard to see the left beaten.

But, well, Barre, as I have said in the other topic, would have been sticked to the right image of that time.

So, maybe a small victory for Rocard, 51-49 ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, maybe a small victory for Rocard, 51-49 ?

Certainly something like that.

[Hash]

Rocard would have been a good candidate, but Mitterrand would have found a way to ruin him, it's just him. He can't resist. Whether it is my actually putting up a Mitterrandist (which I doubt), or a under-cover endorsement and support of another candidate (which is more likely). But I don't see it having the same effect as in 1994.

I agree that Juquin would probably do quite a bit better, and so would Le Pen actually picking up more votes in the old mining regions and so forth. Lajoinie's result and potential gains would probably vary locally.

However, I don't see Rocard as candidate affecting the battle on the right between Chirac and Barre. I think you need another right-wing variable to make Barre go into the runoff...

Assuming he does...

Rocard (PS) 28.6%
Barre (UDF) 18%
Chirac (RPR) 17.5%
Le Pen (FN) 15.5%
Lajoinie (PCF) 7.5%
Juquin (PCFd-PSU) 6%
Waechter (Greens) 4.5%
Laguiller (LO) 2%
Boussel (MPPT) 0.4%

Rocard (PS) 51%
Barre (UDF) 49%

My guess, anyhow.

[big bad fab]

Rocard would have been a good candidate, but Mitterrand would have found a way to ruin him, it's just him. He can't resist. Whether it is my actually putting up a Mitterrandist (which I doubt), or a under-cover endorsement and support of another candidate (which is more likely). But I don't see it having the same effect as in 1994.

I agree that Juquin would probably do quite a bit better, and so would Le Pen actually picking up more votes in the old mining regions and so forth. Lajoinie's result and potential gains would probably vary locally.

However, I don't see Rocard as candidate affecting the battle on the right between Chirac and Barre. I think you need another right-wing variable to make Barre go into the runoff...

Assuming he does...

Rocard (PS) 28.6%
Barre (UDF) 18%
Chirac (RPR) 17.5%
Le Pen (FN) 15.5%
Lajoinie (PCF) 7.5%
Juquin (PCFd-PSU) 6%
Waechter (Greens) 4.5%
Laguiller (LO) 2%
Boussel (MPPT) 0.4%

Rocard (PS) 51%
Barre (UDF) 49%

My guess, anyhow.

So, we must switch Chirac and Barre in your post, I think ?

[Hash]

No, my simulation was made on the assumption Barre does make it into the runoff.