Alternate French 1974 election

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Following death of Georges Pompidou

No "call of the 43", Chaban and Mitterrand will face each other in runoff. Giscard, distant third, suffered a decisive defeat.

How about this scenario?

[Hash]

Following death of Georges Pompidou

No "call of the 43", Chaban and Mitterrand will face each other in runoff. Giscard, distant third, suffered a decisive defeat.

How about this scenario?

I'm not sure if this is entirely realistic. Chaban-Delmas was unpopular with a number of Gaullists, including bigwigs like Chirac, Juillet or Garaud. It's hard to see how the Gaullists could unite entirely behind Chaban...

In polls before April 13, VGE was never a 'distant' third or anything. He was roughly tied with Chaban.

If Royer enters and his campaign isn't a total epic fail, I think you could see him do quite well - something like 5-7% is definitely possible (polls gave him that before his campaign started flopping).

Assuming Chaban and Mitterrand do get into the runoff, I still think Chaban would win due to the virtue of Mitterrand being styled the 'socialo-communist' candidate that the right would vote against... but it would still be very close and I wouldn't be surprised if Mitterrand pulled it off either - there's a 50% chance he would IMO (if not higher perhaps...)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Following death of Georges Pompidou

No "call of the 43", Chaban and Mitterrand will face each other in runoff. Giscard, distant third, suffered a decisive defeat.

How about this scenario?

I'm not sure if this is entirely realistic. Chaban-Delmas was unpopular with a number of Gaullists, including bigwigs like Chirac, Juillet or Garaud. It's hard to see how the Gaullists could unite entirely behind Chaban...

In polls before April 13, VGE was never a 'distant' third or anything. He was roughly tied with Chaban.

If Royer enters and his campaign isn't a total epic fail, I think you could see him do quite well - something like 5-7% is definitely possible (polls gave him that before his campaign started flopping).

Assuming Chaban and Mitterrand do get into the runoff, I still think Chaban would win due to the virtue of Mitterrand being styled the 'socialo-communist' candidate that the right would vote against... but it would still be very close and I wouldn't be surprised if Mitterrand pulled it off either - there's a 50% chance he would IMO (if not higher perhaps...)

Crap! I forgot about that. What about Pierre Messmer instead?

[Hash]

Well Messmer never really wanted to throw his name into the race in the first place... some of the 43 forced his hand a bit but he withdrew the same evening.

In addition, Messmer wasn't a "big name", had a very poor charisma and his campaign would probably have been pretty poor... hard to see him get into the runoff really...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well Messmer never really wanted to throw his name into the race in the first place... some of the 43 forced his hand a bit but he withdrew the same evening.

In addition, Messmer wasn't a "big name", had a very poor charisma and his campaign would probably have been pretty poor... hard to see him get into the runoff really...

So, it's looks like Gaullist did not have a good candidate in 1974

[big bad fab]

Les grand esprits se rejoignent !

We've already discussed this last May:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=95937.0

Here's what I said:

I think Hash is right politically and electorally, but that Antonio would have guessed right the final result.

FM had gathered all he could in the real 1st round and would have gathered the same in my scenario.
It would have been very difficult for him, in the 2nd round against Chaban, to pick 1st round voters from Giscard: sure, Giscard took some old "républicains indépendants" and "Algérie française" voters who were harsh anti-gaullists and wouldn't have voted for Chaban.

But, by 1974, FM was on a hard left path (even if it wasn't entirely sincere and if it was probably cynical, but that's not the point) and those harsh anti-gaullists would have found it difficult to vote for FM.

Nevertheless, I think Chaban would have been defeated with a razor-thin margin due to a bad campaign.
Chaban was a sort of amateur politician (un "dilettante", as we say in French) and wouldn't have been able to lead a tough and organized campaign.

What is more, Chaban and FM knew each other personally quite well: they played billard together in the same culbs in the 50s, for example. Apart from being pressed on some "common" women...., I think Chaban would have found it difficult to attack FM as tough as he should have. FM wouldn't have hesitated, on the contrary.

Maybe some gaullists ("right" or younger gaullists) would have voted FM in secret, but that would have been limited to some apparatchiks.
Giscard wouldn't have helped Chaban whom he hated.

On the other hand, Chaban's regional effect would have cost some votes in the SW, where the left is traditionally strong.

But Mitterrand would have won 50,5 - 49,5.

I still agree with myself

As for Gaullists, Messmer would have been trounced by Giscard. No charisma, no real political skills.

Olivier Guichard could have been a candidate acceptable for all the Gaullists. But in the general election, it would have been difficult for him to finish above Giscard, more well-known and at ease in the medias. He would have done well but not big.

Maurice Schumann would have been another unifying figure for the Gaullists and an historic figure, but well, he was so old fashioned... An honest man couldn't have been favored by a corrupt image Giscard hadn't had yet in 1974

The Gaullists were in a generation gap between old followers of "le Général" and rising new stars, who were more "pompidoliens" than "gaullists" (Chirac, Pons, Labbé, Guéna, Charbonnel, Boulin, Stirn -yes...-, Rufenacht, even Peyrefitte is more in this category).

[big bad fab]

Giscard was pretty unbeatable on the right at the time, I think.

Edgar Faure and Christian Fouchet were the only ones to believe they have a chance...

Only Malraux wouldn't have been ridiculous to think he had the right to be candidate. But he wasn't really a politician...

That's why I only speak of Messmer, Guichard and Schumann.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think we already had a similar topic. I think Mitterrand would win.