French Regionals 2010

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

[Umengus]

Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.


For the rest, medias speak about the (real or not) come back of the fn again and again. Their result in paca, NPDC, Picardy, Champagne,... and Corsica and Alsace will be interessant.  I bet on a solid come back. Just my 2 cents...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.

...oh, Pécresse has a better chance against nobody, just because she is Pécresse, and I disagree about Huchon and Duflot, she's neither ideological nor aggressive, and that's why she has chances and that she is good, for their sake Greens became Europe Ecologie. Huchon has the image of an old boring laissez-faire guy, and as I said, Dray is around.

[Hash]

ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, no, they just have ideas and ambition for their idea, they have energy too and they are constructive, while the other ones all try to become Greens just in order to be trendy. Actually, this impression of energy shouldn't be seen as arrogance just because all the other ones are down and jealous of the dynamic there is around them. Now, I'm not saying they are perfect, I've always said they remain kids, of the sort of the young teens that now they experience puberty they feel everything is opened to them and that they need nobody now and that they can change the world. There is a bit of that in them, yes, but not only, they remain constructive and lucid, the talks they keep concerning what could happen after the 1st round show it, they very much know that the PS is still here and that they will have to deal with it in the future.

But, they are ambitious for their ideas, and something we can't reproach to them is the sincerity of theirs (unlike the old Les Verts) so they wanna try to see what they can do at best alone in a national election and this in order to have some weight in the Left in the future, I see it as plain legitimate and logical.

I see 2 dangers for EE.

1st, before the regionals. The challenge they have to take up is 'décroissance', I consider they are more interesting and constructive than this concept that the PS and UMP throw them in their face, but that's the main, and quite the only one that they found until now against them, they have to succeed to counter this argument, I think they can.

2nd, after regionals. If they effectively make a big score in regionals, they could lose the head, and become really insolent, what would harm them. But I think some guys like Cohn Bendit bros could help them to warn them on this, plus Duflot seems aware of such dangers too.

Actually there is some potential there.

[Umengus]

ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.

100 % agree. Arrogant is the good word.

[Umengus]

internet Ifop poll - ile de france

UMP: 32 -2
PS: 24 +1
Verts-europe ecologie: 17 +1

FN: 8 +1,5
Parti de gauche: 6
NPA: 4
Modem: 5

Debout la République: 2,5
Aliiance écolo indépendante: 1,5

[Hash]

National CSA poll for Le Parisien, change compared to the last CSA poll in October

UMP-NC 33% (+2)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 15% (-2)
MoDem 9% (+1)
FN 7% (-1)
PCF-PG 6% (=)
NPA 5% (-1)
LO 3% (=)

CSA is one of the worst pollsters out there.

[Hash]

Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2010/01/20/01002-20100120ARTFIG00457-regionales-besancenot-tete-de-liste-en-ile-de-france-.php

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

You're generous. The guy seems totally disillusioned.

Also, interesting the beginning of EE's campaign, they quite changed of tone, you can see that they take the measure of the new scale of this campaign, now they play an actual national campaign, seems they figured it out.

I think a way for them to grow could also be what they did during the euros, focusing on the stakes of the election. I mean if PS and UMP fight on national issues, they could come saying that them, they focus on the regional ones, and a big part of regional stakes being transport and studies, that can be good for them. Campaign hasn't really begun in the media though, so we can't really see rapports de force.

That could be amusing if they turn this election like this: national speeches on regional stakes. France's decentralisation.

Anyways, one more time, I think one of their best ally would be abstention.

[Math]

PACA Isama (?) poll for Vauzelle

PS 30%
UMP 28%
FN 19%
Europe Ecologie 9%
FG 4%
MoDem 3%
Ligue du Sud 3%
NPA 2%
AEI 1%

Runoff

Vauzelle 48%
Mariani 34%
Le Pen 18%


Vauzele 56%
Mariani 44%

[Hash]

You forgot FN at 19% in the first round. It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

[Math]

You forgot FN at 19% in the first round.

Fixed.

It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?

[Hash]

It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?

Bompard has some ex-FN support and some ex-MNR support, but the MPF has disowned him and we all saw in June what dissident far-right clowns, even with some institutional backing, can poll in elections. Lol Carl Lang. Anyway, I never heard of Isama, but their website indicates they're quite new and have never polled any elections (though they do usual political polls).

http://www.isama.fr/qui/presentation.php

[Хahar 🤔]

Ligue du Sud?

[Hash]

Ligue du Sud?

A far-right outfit founded by the MPF (ex-FN) Mayor of Orange, intentionally named to imitate a certain Italian fascist-regionalist party. Bompard opposes Sarkozy, but the MPF was quick to disown him and Patrick Louis/Phillipe de Villiers made clear that they don't condone him.

He's gained the support of the racists, what's left of the MNR, the 2 locals who like Carl Lang, and a few FN dissidents like Guy Macary.

[Hash]

Languedoc-Roussillon by Sofres, PS internal

Frêche (PS) 29%
Couderc (UMP) 26%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 14%
Revol (PCF-PG-NPA) 9%
Jamet (FN) 8%
Drevet (AEI) 7%
Jeanjean (DVD-CNI) 4%
Dufour (MoDem) 3%

Runoff

Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Issues with this poll:
The EE list is polled as the "Green list"
LO and Ligue du Midi not tested
FN numbers seem awfully low if they're at 8-10% nationally, especially if the Ligue du Midi (1-2%) is not tested

Basically a poll to comfort Frêche, and the numbers will probably please the Greenies a bit. The AEI, which is a fringe ecolo-crazies alliance at best, has a huge name recognition advantage with the candidacy of Patrice Drevet... a former weather forecaster!

The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année

What I say since the euro. What is rather pathetic it is that it remains an actual debate in PS 'should we go with MoDem??', as if it was an important question, and it makes a lot fights, I could have seen on a PS forum recently. Maybe they need this election to wake up and figure out that this an empty political space, may Bayrou also figure out that while he waits for presidency, the world doesn't wait for him.

[Math]

It's weird to see that in the two first runoff the Sofres survey tested, FN voters choose heavily to vote for the left (2% for Frêche, 2% for the Greens, 1% for Couderc) if there is no FN candidate...

Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

...and in the second scenario, all of them choose to vote in favor of Couderc.

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Okay, I guess I take the whole thing too seriously...

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

[Hash]

Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.

[Umengus]

Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.

yes ifop is poor. 8,5 % is not so low. Interesting to see the small (durable ?) fall of the greens. But PS has today the problem of George Freche scandal and will do probably a list against him and will "lose" the region.

[Hash]

Interesting sh**t in Languedoc-Roussillon.

Pierre Laval Georges Frêche said some controversial stuff on Fabius, so the national PS Politburo is very pissed off at him (until now, they had reluctantly supported him, since apparently being a racist quasi-fascist is preferable to hating Fabius).

The left has always been pissed, notably the Greenies and most of the PCF-PG-NPA, and there is still a deal between Greenies and Left Front for the runoff. But now, the national PS in the name of the 'values of the left' (lol) is announcing the dissident candidacy of the Mayor of Montpellier, Hélène Mandroux. Hélène Mandroux, originally a Frêchiste, but who entered the anti-Frêche line in 2008 or so after Frêche took the presidency of the Montpellier Agglomeration Community over her, is the biggest opponent in the regional PS to Frêche (with Eric Andrieu, leader of the PS in the Aude of some sort). Most of the regional party is dominated by Frêchistes (his proxy won the primary with 66% against Andrieu).

Mandroux says her list is in the name of "rassemblement de la gauche et des écologistes" (rally of the left and ecologists). That's nice, but you're late on the bandwagon since the Greenies have been proposing to dissident Socialists a spot on their list since last year. It will be interesting to see if the PS-Greens-PCF can create a united front in the runoff and face off with Frêche and Couderc.

I'm sure Couderc is quite happy about all this, since this might be the only region where they sky isn't pitch black concerning the UMP's hopes.

[Hash]

As if anybody cares, I'm changing my race ratings in a few regions:

Languedoc-Roussillon: DVG/Frêche Favoured > Lean DVG/Frêche Favoured
Alsace: UMP Favoured > Lean UMP
Champagne-Ardennes: Lean UMP > Tossup
Pays-de-la-Loire and Basse-Normandie: Pure Tossup > Tossup/Tilt PS

[big bad fab]

Unfortunately, I'm not so sure any longer that Couderc can take the winner prize even in a 3-way second round.
Aubry's interference "from Paris" will doom the Mandroux list (local voters won't be pleased...)  and Freche will be the big winner.
And, in the 2nd round, there will probably be a union list between Mandroux and Greens-PCF, but it will be nasty and inefficient.

Alsace will be the only UMP region next March...