French Regionals 2010

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Giacobbi, Zuccarelli and Renucci (not sure about Bucchini) seem to have made a deal in Corse for the runoff where the top-placed list gets the presidency, and other executive spots are awarded proportionally. It isn't final, and nothing is final in Corse especially when dealing with sworn enemies of the past.

Still, I'll move it from Pure Tossup to Lean Left

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IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf

If the second round is very, very positive for the UMP, 46% is really a ceiling:
34 + 5 from the FN + 3 from MoDem + 2 MPF + 2 from AEI.

And with some abstention... it's really over for Novelli, despite the fact that Bonneau is a bad candidate (22% isn't very good...).

[Math]

***BREAKING NEWS***

Greens, UMP tied according to the first poll in Alsace.

Richert (UMP) 34%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 21%
Bigot (PS) 18%
Binder (FN) 11%
Werhling (MoDem) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 4%
(NPA) 2,5%
Stoessel (Force centriste Alsace) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 1,5%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 44%
Richert (UMP) 43%
Binder (FN) 13%

Richert (UMP) 44%
Bigot (PS) 41%
Binder (FN) 15%[/quote]

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-L-Alsace-voit-Vert-aux-elections-regionales-165403/

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lol.

Not entirely surprising since Richert is an awful candidate, quite worse than Zeller who had centrist appeal. And the alliance between the MEI and the Greens, it really helps the ecolos do even better in a region where they're strong though divided.

And while we're on the topic of debacle...

Ifop poll in Corse
Rocca Serra (UMP) 30%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 9%
Bucchini (FG) 7%
Talamoni (Nationalists) 5%
Baccerelli (AEI) 5%
Cardi (FN) 5%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (Forza Corsica) 2%

In the runoff...
Left (PS+PRG+CSD+FG) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 39%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 17%

[big bad fab]

I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.
But, still, everything is possible.
Even a 4-way 2nd round....
I mean, it will be difficult between the Greens and the PS between the 1st and 2nd rounds...

As for Corsica, I think it's lost for the UMP but I'm surprised that it's quite close.

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I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...

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btw, in Alsace, if we look at the various 'rapports de force'

in 2004:
Right 34%
EXD 28%
Left 24%
Others/centre 11% (MEI 7% + buralistes 4%)
EXG 3%

in 2010:
Left 40.5% (+16.5)
Right 34% (nc)
EXD 15% (-13)
Others/centre 6% (-5)
EXG 4.5% (+1.5)

However, around 5-6% of Green voters (counted all as left) would vote for a MEI list (imo), so the real left might be more around 34%-36%

in the Euros:
Right 37%
Left 34%
Centre 10%
EXD 8%
Others/ecolo 6%
EXG 5%

[big bad fab]

I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...

Yep, especially with the MEI, but a 2 points difference on FN score is big, sort of. (Except if the NSP are higher in one case...)

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TNS Sofres national poll confirms the UMP is in a situation worse than in 2004:

UMP 30%
PS 28%
Greens 13%
FN 8.5%
FG 6%
MoDem 4%
NPA 3.5%
LO 3%
Others 4%

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

[Umengus]

If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Concerning Bayrou, the sink is based on the sofres poll. Others polls give 8 at 10 %. Unfortunatly for Bayrou, the narrative today is that his campaign is in very bad shape.

For now, an UMP great defeat is for me an evidence. But there are still lots of unknows and the scores of PS, green and modem are very changing.   

But even an UMP crash, Sarkozy stays the front runner for 2012.

CSA poll

Scenario 1

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 6%
Buffet: 3 %

Aubry: 19 %
Duflot: 8 %

Bayrou: 12 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 32 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 (very weak compared to 2007)

Sarkozy: 52 %
Aubry: 48 %

Scenario 2

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 7%
Buffet: 3 %

Strauss-Kahn: 22 %
Duflot: 9%

Bayrou: 10 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 29 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 %

Sarkozy: 48 %
DSK: 52 %

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Not sure, the FN seems more mixed than ever in terms of leadership with the last campaign of the father. Well, let's just see.

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If anyone has an abstention poll...

My personal guess is between 40 and 45% or so. Higher than 2004, for sure, and around 2008 levels.

[Umengus]

Ile de france - sofres

UMP: 32%
PS: 22%
Greens: 17%

NPA: 6%
PCF: 6 %
FN: 4,5%
Modem: 3 %

Languedoc - Opinion Way

Freche: 24 %
UMP: 23 %

Greens: 12 %
PS (Mandroux): 11 %
FN: 11 %
PDG-PCF: 9 %
Patrick Devret: 8 %

Second turn:

Freche: 34 %
UMP: 32 %
left(PS, greens,...): 30 %

IF at the first turn, GREEN and PS are allied, they would score 19 % et Freche 26 %

There are still lots of unknows in this region but it's clear that PS will lose. It will be interessant to see if PS will support to beat Freche... (like RPR supported PS to beat FN...)

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Full and correct results of the Languedoc-Roussillon poll by OpinionWay for the Greenies (so much for the theory of OpinionWay being the big bad right-wing pollster)

Frêche (DVG) 24%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens) 12%
Mandroux (PS) 11%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 9%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

or

Frêche (DVG) 26%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens-PS) 19%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 10%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Frêche (DVG) 34%
Couderc (UMP) 32%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 30%
(6% missing lol)

Frêche (DVG) 32%
Couderc (UMP) 30%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 27%
Jamet (FN) 8%

There is also a poll in PACA for the AEI by OpinionWay

PS 27%
UMP 27%
FN 14%
Greens 13%
MoDem 4%
PCF-PG 4%
AEI 4% (6% with MoDem, 5% with AC)
NPA 3%
AC 2%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

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Also, the Drevet-MoDem alliance was quite short, because the MoDem has broken the deal and Marc Dufour will be the MoDem's separate candidate.

[big bad fab]

Very often, I'm wrong in electoral predictions

But in Languedoc, I keep thinking Frëche will win.
See, even with a divided left, Couderc isn't able to be above.
And, imagine Jamet can make it to the second round, it's over for the UMP.

Granted some FN voters vote for Frêche, but I think he also grasps many votes from the far-left: anti-Paris vote and anti-bobo vote will be strong.

At least, there is one region where there is some sort of suspense !

BTW, in Ile-de-France, this is 55-45 in the 2nd round for PS-Verts against Pécresse... 10 points...

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

[Umengus]

Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

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Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.

[Umengus]

Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%

Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.

NPA yes but Besancenot is more popular. He scores (in polls) at 6-8 %. And medias are friendly with him. But the last days (pro-islamic stance) were not good for him.

A very astonishing poll (Opinion way)

Paca (comparaison with the 10/29 poll)

UMP: 30 % (+6)
PS: 24 % (-7)
FN (Le Pen): 15 % (+3)
Green 13 % (=)

Front de gauche: 6%
Alliance ecolo indépendante: 4 %
Modem= 3 % (!)

Second turn:

PS: 44 % (-6)
UMP: 41 % (+4)
FN: 15 % (+2)

 

[Umengus]

Poitou- charentes

PS (Royal): 32 %
UMP (Bussereau): 29 %
Green: 14 %
FN: 7 %
Modem: 5 %
Front de gauche- PSF: 5 %
NPA: 4 %

Second turn:

Royal: 57 % (55% in 2004)
Bussereau: 43 %

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Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.

MoDem at 3% in PACA is not surprising. They have a no-name candidate, they're weak in the region and they're polling crap nationally.

57-43 for Royal in Poitou is good, and goes with the national trend (plus she's popular in the region).

[big bad fab]

Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.

It's not impossible, as many voters of Green lists aren't aware for who they are really voting...
And remember that there is France Gamerre (Génération Ecologie) in Marseilles (true, she might have a weight of 0.1%, but she contributes to give a more centrist or rightist image of ecologism, that many voters aren't able to differentiaite from the Greens) and that there are many small movements of defense of animals' rights, that were, for some of them, money pumps for the extreme right...
They might also have contributed to alter the image of ecologism.

But the main thing is that PACA should be the first to tilt towards the right IF the FN wasn't able to make it to the second round.
50% for Vauzelle in the previous poll was really high.

Plus there have been some corruption affairs recently in Bouches-du-Rhône, more on the left than on the right.
Plus Guérini and Mennucci seem to be open and harsh enemies now... So...

Anyway, Mariani won't win, but it's more logical to have a (slightly) competitive situation.

(5 months ago, when it was still worth making predictions, I've said that:
I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
Falco is half-out and Bompard completely down, but Mariani isn't a bad candidate against an ageing Vauzelle and Le Pen isn't very high.)