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Hashemite
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« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2009, 11:16:27 AM »
« edited: October 18, 2009, 11:18:44 AM by PASOK Leader Hashemite »

Old IFOP poll in Languedoc-Roussillon for the PS.

http://www.montpellier-journal.fr/fichiers/sondageandrieufreche.pdf

I'll post the scenario in which Frêche (DVG) is the PS candidate, and not the Eric Andrieu (PS) vs. Frêche (DVG) scenarios.

Couderc (UMP) 27%
Frêche (PS) 25%
Roumegas (Greens) 16%
Aliot (FN) 11%
Liberti (PCF-PG) 8%
Dufour (MoDem) 6%
? (NPA) 4%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Couderc (UMP) 38%
Frêche (PS) 36%
Roumegas (Greens) 26%

Frêche (PS-Greens) 53%
Couderc (UMP) 47%

Not testing the FN is annoying, but if Aliot makes the runoff, he'd probably poll 11% or slightly less (8-10%).

Also, the two-way is surprisingly good for the UMP considering how runoffs are lethal to them, and considering how they polled only like 33% in the 2004 three-way runoff. Probably more of a result of good MoDem transfers (the Bayrou voters in 2007 break 51-49 for the left) and also 20% of Green voters in the Euro voting Couderc (and 10% of the PS, probably the big time Frêche haters).

A new far-right/Identitaire list based off of Bompard's Southern League, the League of the Midi, was not tested. If it polls well enough, it could draw Aliot (FN) down enough to prevent him from making the runoff.



...but not so good in Rhône-Alpes.

Grossetête (UMP) 31%
Queyranne (PS) 25%
Rebelle (Greens) 20% (18% for Tête)
Gollnisch (FN) 8%
Begag (MoDem) 7%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Queyranne (PS) 53%
Grossetête (UMP) 38%
Begag (MoDem) 9%

Queyranne (PS) 51%
Grossetête (UMP) 40%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%

The FN scenario is interesting in that Gollnisch's entry into the runoff polls the Socialists down a fair amount and the UMP down 1%. Not really surprising since I doubt people who still vote FN today will vote for Sarko's party in a runoff given how they hate each other, but I bring this up because it could mean interesting things in Languedoc-Roussillon if Aliot makes the runoff, then Couderc has a good chance at a surprise win.

Also, righties chose the wrong candidate since the poll says voters prefer Barnier (35%) over Grossetête (20%), Perben (19%) and Obergruppenführer Eric Judas Besson (18%)

As a reminder, Queyranne won 47% of the vote in the 2004 runoff against 38% for Comparini (UDF-UMP) and 15% for Gollnisch, whose result was down quite a bit from his 18.2% in the first round. The Greenies polled 10% in the first round, running alone.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2009, 11:18:46 AM »

Urgh. Frêche is disgusting. Vote Communist! (lol)
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2009, 06:19:52 PM »

The NC presented its final list of its 22 'chefs de file', which will try to negotiate either a first-round alliance with the UMP or lead a NC-only list by the first round.

List: http://www.le-nouveaucentre.org/images/DocPresse/chefsdefilereg.pdf

They've taken the usual route of taking almost all of their MPs and sticking them with the label, like in the Euros. In regions where they're unknown, they found a regional councillor or Mayor of some place.

Sarkozy, which wants a universal first-round UMP-NC alliance, has proposed giving the NC 3 top spots (quite generous, given the NC is worth like 2%): Valérie Létard, Secretary of State to the Minister of Ecology (NPDC); François Sauvadet, leader of the NC group (Bourgogne); and Philippe Augier, Mayor of Deauville in Basse-Normandie.

However, the NC has a little dream of its own that Sarko would give up the leadership of the Only Region Which Really Matters to the NC. Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93). Santini led the UDF list in 2004, and he merged with Copé's UMP list.

The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.
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« Reply #28 on: October 22, 2009, 06:25:01 PM »

Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.
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« Reply #29 on: October 22, 2009, 06:30:06 PM »

Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.
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« Reply #30 on: October 22, 2009, 06:32:22 PM »

Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.

Know it, but I see Lagarde as one of the most decent politician we have, so...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2009, 10:27:08 AM »

The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.


Chaisemartin has switched to the Parti Radical... yes the "real" one, the Borloo one... if only all the MoDem little barons could do the same Wink

And, no, it's not Boutin's ego in this case, it's really a constant humiliation of Catholic right by Sarkozy, Morano, Hortefeux. And, well, for the PCD, there's only IdF, Pays de la Loire et Rhône-Alpes. Elsewhere ? they are really ZERO.
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2009, 09:03:01 PM »

Corse (Ifop)

UMP 29%
PNC 17%
PRG-Giacobbi 13%
PRG-Zuccarelli 11%

CSD-Renucci 11%
PCF 6%
Nationalists 4%
FN 4%
EXG 1%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Corse

Look at the runoff results: more indicative

(yay, boasting my Wikipedia masterpieces).

Rocca Serra/Santini administration:

Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 46%

37% favour a left-right centralist alliance, 35% favour a left-nationalist alliance, 25% favour a right-nationalist alliance

Obviously, a lot depend on the post-election alliances (the 'third round'), especially with the left's shenanigans. Zuccarelli seems to have shat on his past principles and is now open to a deal with the PNC (moderate autonomists-support the Greenies nationally) for forming a coalition, not sure if he wants to work with his sworn enemy Giacobbi. Renucci will also be a bigger fact in 2010 than in 2004 it seems, as will the regionalists (21% - not far from the Greens' result in the Euros - which is quite high and shows a general upswing for the Corsican regionalists). Unlike in 2004, the threshold for the runoff will be 7% (and not 5%), so the PCF falls short. Overall, I think I'd be putting cash on a left-wing gain in Corse. lol.



But, nobody cares, the Most Important Region has a poll. STOP THE PRESSES BRING OUT THE CHILDREN

Ile-de-France (Ifop for DLR)

Notoriety highlights: the surprising is that Duflot has 62% not knowing her... the breakdowns of notoriety are also interesting (young, workers, poorer suburban really don't know her)

NC-Santini list:

UMP 30%
PS 19%
Greens 15%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
FN 6.5%
NC 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

UMP-NC common list:

UMP 32.5% (+2.5)
PS 19%
Greens 16% (+1)
MoDem 10% (+2)
PCF-PG 7%
FN 7% (+0.5)
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#.C3.8Ele-de-France

RUNOFF POLLS DUMBASS
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #33 on: October 24, 2009, 05:26:36 AM »

Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...
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« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2009, 07:08:49 AM »

Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...

Well, you know the PS. But the left is doing extremely well.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #35 on: October 24, 2009, 07:43:15 AM »

Even if Jean Sarkozy withdrew from the presidential office of the EPAD, the harm is done.
I think the right is now down for the remaining 2 and a half years of Sarkozy's mandate.

The only way for him to be reelected is a continuing division of the left and the centre-left.

And IdF polls, which are indeed good for the left globally speaking, are bad for it in the details: no prevailing party, a weak but not at all dead MoDem,  a divided but strong far-left...

In the regional elections, it will be bad for the right in the second round (even though there can be surprises: remember what I've said on Languedoc-Roussillon ? Wink). But in a presidential election, it may still work for the right...
Not that I hope this, because I think that if Sarkozy is reelected, he will fall asleep "à la Chirac" and that it would be very bad in 2017.

Anyway, the most interesting thing in this poll is to see that, even in IdF, a small centre-right list is a GOOD thing for the right, as it steals votes from the MoDem and the Greens.
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« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2009, 07:58:46 AM »

I also note the strong showing of the FN here: up quite a bit from the FN's 4-5% showing in IdF here in the Euros, probably a bit of the right-wing discontent vote showing up after the EPAD affair, Mitterrand affair.

The runoff will be bad for the right, it will probably lose Corse, and it will maybe only gain Champagne-Ardenne and maybe PdL (and Languedoc-Roussillon, lol, if the left is divided even in the runoff). If it continues to go sour for the right, then PdL and Languedoc-Roussillon probably go out of reach, Champagne-Ardenne gets harder... imagine if France was red once again except Alsace (no Corse)!?

Anyways, France is really screwed over in all ways.
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« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2009, 12:55:09 PM »

Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...

Well, you know the PS. But the left is doing extremely well.

Well, yes. But you shouldn't be seeing this sort of left-fragmentation when the left is in opposition. Oh, but it's not a surprise. I think the PS just take matters to their logical conclusion and rename themselves SFIO.
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2009, 06:03:56 PM »

A new OpinionWay poll

UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

It is rather interesting to see the effects of the Epad affair...

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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2009, 07:15:03 PM »

UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

As I would have thought. The EPAD affair seems to hurt the right more than it helps the left, thus the dramatic rise for the FN. Once the whole thing settle down a bit, since people forget these awful things quickly (see: CDPQ in Quebec. People massively pissed at Charest, went all OMG LIBERALS SUCK RESIGN, now the Liberals are comfortably ahead again), I think we'll see the FN go back down to 6-7% and the UMP staying at 30-31%.

I think the Green effect is slowly, slowly fading. Maybe. But I said that in July, August, September, October.

Also, testing the AEI is kinda dumb since I'm not sure that thing will carry through since the main player, Waechter's MEI has concluded a deal with the Greenies in Alsace where MEI-AEI is still a major player in the ecolo field. On a side note, the Green-MEI deal in Alsace helps the Greenies a sh**tload there. Maybe one of their best regions, if not the best (especially if Duflot keeps underperforming, imo, in IDF). And I don't think the AEI will be worth much in other regions anyways, unless there's some major list leader that excites people.

also hidden in that poll is a PACA poll, which now test the Bompard League and Mariani as the UMP top-candidate.

Vauzelle (PS) 31%
Mariani (UMP) 24%
Wisniewski (Greens) 13%
Le Pen (FN) 12%
de Peretti (MoDem) 7%
Miran (MEI) 5%
Coppola (PCF-PG) 4%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Joshua (NPA) 1%
Bompard (LS) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 50%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 13%

Vauzelle (PS) 56%
Mariani (UMP) 44%

2004: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Provence-Alpes-C.C3.B4te_d.27Azur
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2009, 08:06:45 PM »

Also, the UMP is shooting itself in the foot in Bretagne again. In the primaries, which are turning out to be even more of a joke everyday, Jacques Le Guen, a Villepiniste UMP deputy from the Finistère was the only candidate and pretty much won by default. I said back then that some were talking of the eventuality of the Kremlin dropping him in favour in Bernadette Malgorn, a former regional prefect (who hated freedom and is a HP). That sh**t has come up again, and most of the local structures of the UMP have turned to supporting that witch because they want the favours of the Kremlin, a spot on her list etc. It seems likely that the UMP will now give the top spot on the list to Malgorn, but the final deadline seems to be November 28 (there's a meeting in Paris of the UMP's commission on candidacies/pre-selections on November 2). Anyways, this is all some useless distraction since the UMP will lose in a landslide and also I myself am supporting Jean Yves Le Drian over whichever HP the UMP chooses.

Also, the UMP candidate in Auvergne is Alain Marleix, Thierry Mariani in PACA and obviously Philippe Richert in Alsace. Louis Molinié in Guadeloupe, Chantal Maignan in Martinique and Léon Bertrand in Guyane. Didier Robert in Reunion.
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« Reply #41 on: November 08, 2009, 01:43:50 PM »

Race ratings:



Notes:

Alsace: The Greenies cited an internal with some rather low UMP numbers (and low Green numbers too, mind you). If all sh**t hits the fan, then I fear to imagine what happens here.
Basse-Normandie: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Champagne-Ardenne: I was extremely optimistic for the UMP here, but there haven't been any polls so we could be surprised. Though I doubt it could really go any lower than tossup.
IDF: I don't put much stock into UMP internals showing Pecresse almost tied with Huchon and ahead of Duflot, nor do I think Sarkozy's strategy of Cabinet Minister-packing is a good idea because being a cabinet minister isn't an advantage and he/she's changing the race into a referendum on Sarkozy which isn't good for the right.
Languedoc-Roussillon: Frêche doing slightly better in polls, Couderc much worse. Probably the effects of EPAD.
PACA: Mariani is an awful candidate. Might be too generous, but that OpinionWay poll here was absolute sh**t for the right.
Pays de Loire: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Rhone-Alpes: Nothing will happen.
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« Reply #42 on: November 08, 2009, 02:06:36 PM »

And Corse is tossup because Corse is always tossup?
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« Reply #43 on: November 08, 2009, 02:43:44 PM »

And Corse is tossup because Corse is always tossup?

Corse is tossup, aside for the reasons I already explained, because the outcome will be decided in the so-called third round.
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« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2009, 09:25:30 AM »

Hmm, I tend to think regional elections are really a kind of bastard (hybrid) stuff, they are still quite new, and haven't really found their place and their identity by today, and anyways they will be made upside down if when the territorial reform will pass.

What I mean is that i tend to think that people here first vote for a party, second for a list of people/head of list, to decide their vote i mean. So, the political context of each party would matter more than who or who is candidate here or there, which still counts ultimately.

Other than that, i think the biggest unknown is the FN, if the father rules the campaign it won't make a lot of change, but if the daughter rules, as a plain chief, that would be a bit different.

Speaking about FN in general, when the daughter will be the real new chief, it will be an actual second blow for the FN, she will wipe out all the obscure guys of the FN passioned by the darknesses of History, just keeping a few that will remain nice with her (if there are some), and mainly surround herself with young smiling populists, Steve Briois style.

I'm following her in media recently, that's quite interesting. She will really wipe out all the former darkness of FN, and make a new rightist populist up that she sums up by: 'mondialistes' (globalist, all the mainstream political class) vs. 'nationaux' (nationals, them) (seems she pays attention not to say 'nationalistes'), that simple, the message is clear and sexy. And the way she speaks can really touch people, she really use a popular rhetoric and popular arguments, that you can often hear in mouths of people, and she makes things quite clear about racism. Plus, she really is pretty good in debates, all of this really uses to destabilize journalists and people who face her, they still try to take her through the father prism, fails.

Concretely I don't think she can electorally earn a lot, i think what she can say can touch people but not enough to give FN some big responsibilities (though, something better than before for them I think), but I think she can actually feed the debate, and become something electorally important for the mainstream right, something to deal with...

The French political shaker who began in 2007 hasn't finished to shake...
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« Reply #45 on: November 19, 2009, 08:36:11 PM »

Kinda unrelated, but something interesting I noticed. It also applies to the UMP's hopes in Lorraine (some in the UMP say they might regain it).

Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   61 440    25,52

Meurthe-et-Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   45 660    25,19

The Gandrange effect!
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« Reply #46 on: November 20, 2009, 11:19:17 AM »

There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.
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« Reply #47 on: November 20, 2009, 11:25:54 AM »
« Edited: November 20, 2009, 11:27:27 AM by Benwah »

There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.

The more they make unique lists in the first run, the more it weaken them i think. Thinking that abstention could play an actual role in our context, it's better to have several voices on one wing than only one in order to make people come on your wing (by wing i mean right or left).

These elections are really a big interrogation mark for me by today. Everything depending of first, abstention, second, Greens. MoDem could be crushed, but anyways, MoDem Bayrou doesn't care of it since it's only a man for an election...
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« Reply #48 on: November 20, 2009, 11:44:34 AM »

NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

I don't see why the interrogation mark. It's rather obvious the left will win the runoffs. I feel the Greenies, who have been acting like stupid snobs and sprouting "WE WILL WIN ALL ZE ELECTIONZ NAUGHW", will have a rather cold shower compared to the Euros. And I have a hard time seeing the Greenies being snobby and maintaining their qualified lists in runoffs against UMP and PS, since it would entail UMP victories in places they shouldn't win and it will harm them politically to act as 'UMP-victory makers'. I think they'll pragmatically drop their OMGZ WE WILL WIN ELECTIONZ dogma between the two rounds.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #49 on: November 20, 2009, 12:05:18 PM »
« Edited: November 20, 2009, 12:15:30 PM by Benwah »

NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Here only the UMP will express itself for its wing, Hunters, Fans of the clown, and NC have been already eaten. Less voices will campaign, mainly one point of view will be expressed, then appealing less people to vote. The UMP is already playing as if it was a second run, that may be not very smart.

For abstention, what's going on here is clearly seen as rather pathetic in the whole political class, and the resentment step by step becoming some resignation about this bad show, and about the global social situation. Abstention could be pretty high, and on the UMP side too, that's also why the interrogation mark.

The interrogation mark also for Greens then. Still because we don't know the different aspects of this possibly high abstention.

And, no matter if they come out first or not here or there, they will play the coalition in the 2nd run, in short this is PS-Greens against UMP alone, they are not in this attitude of we will eat the left, they are ambitious but remain ready to be pragmatic to make win the left i think.

They are sexy, especially in IdF, but remain some kids, which is not necessarily appealing too. Once again, if the context stay normal, abstention could be high, and maybe not the same abstention as during the euros...

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