French Regionals 2010

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Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Perhaps, and in some cases it works. However, having your side split between parties or candidates in the first round can open you up to arch-nemesis candidates who want to kill each other, making a reconciliation impossible despite controlling a theoretical majority... the examples of such fraternal fights are countless.

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Well, I disagree with 'eaten'. CPNT, MPF (generally) and the NC were always irrelevant in the wide realm of things. Anyways.

I have said many times the UMP is now the Party of the Majority. If you approve of Sarkozy, you vote UMP. Not Party X or Party Y, you vote UMP. For better or for worse, Sarkozy and the UMP have federated the supporters of the majority into one strong party, something never seen before - to that extent at least.

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I have a hard time believing the talk of abstention above 50% partly because no such thing has ever happened before in local elections (except for the 1988 cantonals, special case), because these elections often have large personal votes going on, because of attachment to regions and an understanding of institutions.

I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.

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Well, I probably misinterpreted your statement, my apologies. There is no question in my mind about the general outcome; the left wins ala 2004. However, yes, there are questions concerning the particular result of the Greenies, MoDem, FN and also PCF.  Especially the Greenies and FN, for me.

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Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.

Well, that's my main point, the aspects of the abstention, which yes, according to what happened for the right this autumn could be different than during the euros. Then, yes, more than 50% wold be a big surprise and i hadn't that in mind personally, 55% (of turnout) can be enough for me to speak about an high abstention, and as far as today i wouldn't find such a figure ridiculous.

Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...

Ah? As I said it wouldn't surprise me anyways.

Then, on the global aspect of this election, actually what you say works pretty much for municipals, if it was about municipals i wouldn't speak that much of abstention. Regionals are still seen, imo, as a kind of "more close than euros elections". Stuffs are still decided in Paris, and, frankly most people don't give a s**t to how it globally work between régions and départements. France is a country of: Président-Députés-Préfets-Maires, the rest is, vague...

Though, yes, the importance of régions are growing but still it remains very vague, plus the territorial reform won't help to remove this sentiment.

Something that to me, in a global context of resentment/resignation/misunderstanding, recently pushed by people to which French are attached, mayors (congress of mayors) would contribute not to make grow the turn out.

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November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll

[Umengus]

more...

NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

did not express: 30 %
turnout: 56 %

Not good for Sarkozy but Presidential election is very diiferent than regional election. Even a big ump loss, sarkozy will stay the favorite in 2012.

In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.

[Umengus]

Rhone Alpes (Opinion way)

LO: 2 %
NPA: 3 %
Front de gauche: 5%

PS: 24 %
green: 16 %

Modem: 8%

Alliance Ecologie indépendante: 4%

UMP: 28 %

FN: 10 %

did not express: 23 %

second tour:

PS: 49 %
UMP: 39
FN: 12 %

or

PS: 58 %
UMP: 42 %
FN: 12 %
turnout: 56%

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OpinionWay Rhone-Alpes (change on last poll in region - TNS-Sofres in Sept 2009)

Grossetête (UMP) 28% (-3%)
Queyranne (PS) 24% (-1%)
Meirieu (Greens) 16% (-4%)
Gollnisch (FN) 10% (+2%)
Begag (MoDem) 8% (nc)
Vieux-Marcaud (PCF) 5%
AEI 4%
Combet (NPA) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Compared to 2004, the UMP remains at or ony slightly above the UMP's runoff level (38%), while Queyranne improves from his results (47%), it seems he's benefiting from the FN's drop, though it's obviously caused by a lot more than that.

more...
NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

AEI loses 1%, but is at 2%.
Others is 3%

I don't know why they're polling AEI, since it's not sure they'll even run everywhere. Maybe only PACA, Languedoc-Roussillon... and I suppose the Greenies will do their best to prevent them from running, especially in Languedoc-Roussillon where they're preventing the Greenies from breaking 10% according to an old BVA poll.

[Hash]

November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll

FTR, here are the 2004 first round national results

Left 39%
Right + CPNT 36%
EXD 16%
EXG 5%
Ecolo 2%
Others 3%

and now...

Left 44% (+5)
Right 31% (-5)
EXD 9% (-7)
Centre 7% (+7)
EXG 4% (-1)
Ecolo 2% (nc)
Others 3% (nc)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.

Well, if we come with the turnout expressed in the polls which joins the number i had given (about 55%) it will be a sanction vote for the whole political class.

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Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Interesting cross tabs:

In a direct runoff between PS and UMP, FN voters split 56-44 for Queyranne, while MoDem voters 55-45 favour the UMP. It seems that most of the current FN vote is a real protest vote, not much of an ideological one, meaning that its voters favour the opposition in a race between Government and Opposition. The MoDem split is weird, either a result of ed up crosstabs or a right-lean in MoDem voters in the region. I mean, who votes for a Sarko-hater like Begag in the first round but votes for the Party of Sarkozy in the runoff?

It will be interesting to see if the FN's crosstabs are observed outside the region, to make sure its a national trend, and if so then it might ironically mean the UMP will actually want the FN to make the runoff in places like Champagne-Ardenne or Alsace.

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It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.

[big bad fab]

Well, it seems as if Champagne-Ardenne won't be won by the UMP either.

When you're at less than 30% nationally, when you're busy erasing any other rightist party in the first round (no MPF, no NC, no PCD, no Alliance centriste list, etc), when the FN is able to make it to the 2nd round in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Lorraine, Franche-Comté, Rhône-Alpes, Languedoc-Roussillon, PACA, maybe even in Bourgogne, Centre and Haute-Normandie,
everything is lost.

Will the UMP be able to save Alsace ? I think so, even with an FN in the 2nd round.
But that's all.

The interesting question now: will Sarkozy be really contested AFTER the regionals ?
Because his remaining power on the entire right is that he was so-called election-winner.
Some doubts emerged in 2008 (municipal elections), but the presidential polls (yes....) have been enough to silence those doubts.

But in the middle of 2010, with a DSK on the rise (and maybe, one day, a Hollande on the rise or weird polls with Cohn-Bendit beating Sarkozy in the 2nd round) and many in the MoDem ready to switch to the left, Sarkozy won't be any longer the saviour of the right.

Prepare for some interesting internal fights.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.

Oh, so his momentum is beginning now, seems "A vous de juger" would have made him on. Well, as i said in FGD, outside of the fact he is black, he doesn't seem bad, but not exceptional at all, less good than Harry Roselmack. Though, we can't reproach him to be black now, we can reproach to the media to turn kinda craze (well, gently craze, it is not upside down) because he's black though, yes.

Anyways, seems that IdF (Paris then) gets all the focus of these regionals...haha...C'est la France...!

Oh, and, Fabien, you still believe in a come back of DSK?? sweet naïveté.....

You're right by saying that one of things that helped to unify our right is the 'election winner', but it's not enough for me to be contested, he still holds it, though less and less and no more to appear as the strong stuff it could appear as before.

Oh, and, Cohn Bendit to run is to forget too........

As I said the biggest internal fight, well, as all what i say here imo, will be Franky vs. Ségolène in the primaries, and in this one yes, there will be blood.

Personally I keep thinking the card of international affairs could have a lot of importance for Sarkozy. He clearly knows he earned an ascendant on Obama in the last UN congress, he can really play on that board.

And if ever Sarkozy is no more seen as the chief, then the UMP will be doomed, and for a long time.

[big bad fab]

I haven't said that DSK or Cohn-Bendit will be candidates.
Just that polls testing their names and finding they're beating Sarkozy will have a large impact on the right. Why self-censorship if your "saviour" isn't able to win elections again ?

These regionals, as they seem to turn, may be a HUGE defeat for the right:
- FN on the rise again, but with a blue-collar and protest vote (so very difficult now to gain in the 2nd round)
- Greens big (and Greens are strongly on the left, whatever some voters think) but not threatening the PS, bigger
- MoDem not dead
- mainstream right lower than 30%, i.e. in Chirac-Raffarin-Villepin waters...

All those who have forced themselves to keep quiet will feel allowed to fire at the Dear Leader.
I just hope Villepin won't be the one who will benefit from this, that would be outrageous.
I know that, unfortunately, Juppé is forever doomed. Barnier has gone now, Fillon isn't ambitious enough, Woerth is unknown and too straight.
If it's Copé or Baroin or even Borloo, so be it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I'm still always surprised that you keep speaking of Borloo, that guy hasn't a chance of being a leader of something big, well imo.

Anyways, remains 3, you cited all of them: Villepin, Copé, Barouin.

Copé, well, too weak, he can't create a leadership, he's just a wonderful speaker, doesn't go further.

Barouin, eh, he can be strong, ha always had distance with sarkozy, he appears has someone who wonders before speaking, he's calm, he could create some leadership. But he will seriously has to remove from his face this: "i will suicide myself tomorrow". Well, to me he seems disillusioned, and that's weaken him and personally i don't really see him coming back within the years that come. Plus, he's part ol' reasonable politicians, he is not enough excited/egomaniac for today's politics.

Villepin, the only one that could do something i think, but, if ever, i don't think it would go very very far, if ever he succeeds in something, he wouldn't make a lot of success i think.

Nah, your camp is doomed, it's Sarkozy or nothing. . And as I keep saying I think sarkozy has still cards.

People are entertaining themselves polls about trendy guys like DSK, but step by step we will enter in the real primaries, and the fights will actually begin, and Franky will be on here. Well, and for the right, couldn't be bad, this fight of Franky against Ségolène could divert the media attention from the right.

I'm not able to analyze an election in terms of regional borders, i just know the mainlines about it, i can just analyze it in terms of national trends, and as i said i think it can be relevant since people don't really have a clue of these régionales/départementales institutions and then vote mainly for a party than for a figurehead, except maybe in IdF, which is the spot of the main figureheads globally.

In terms of national trends as far as today i'd say:

- Yes, an FN a bit growing, but not necessarily very big, they are still in transition.
- Greens, yes, can be big, but mainly because of abstention i think, and personally i think that they are no more that much on the left the Voynet/Lipietz/Mamerre period is out now, it is Cohn Bendit Bros/Duflot (and this shift is good!!), they are far more pragmatic, and they are on the Modem ground, clearly.
- Only chance of Modem is to be close of Greens
- Mainstream right will suffer but there could abstention from the PS too, so, on the national scale that may be not so bad.
- PS is bad and bad and bad, as said above they could provoke a lot of abstention on their wing.

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News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

[big bad fab]

News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

[Hash]

News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.

[big bad fab]

News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.

In fact, the NC and the AC are waiting for the UMP... But it seems that in Ille-et-Vilaine, Dominique de Legge wants to be nr 1 on the list and not let an NC take the lead.
I hope they will end their "negotiations" before the deadline to declare candidacies .

[Hash]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.


An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

[Hash]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.

[Alexander Hamilton]

UMP landslide.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.

Well, during Euros, people can vote for such a guy by adhesion. In this election I don't see it being possible. What you say about is interesting to be said, but if we talk about foreseeing about him, I wouldn't be surprised if he did less than Euros, for the reasons i already mentioned.

[big bad fab]

An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.

Cayeux isn't a bad candidate, that's true (especially if you compare her to dull Gewerc...), but it's not enough.
And with the real risk of a FN above 10%, the UMP is of course in very bad shape in Picardie too.

[Umengus]

Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...