French Regionals 2010

[Hash]

Yeah, the UMP's screwed big-time and we're in for the boringest elections to date:

Champagne-Ardenne (OpinionWay)

Warsmann (UMP) 30%
Bachy (PS-PCF) 28%
Loiselet (EE) 13%
Subtil (FN) 10%
Smith (NPA-PG) 6%
Wysocinski (AEI) 3%
Grafteaux-Paillard (MoDem) 4%
Rose (LO) 4%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 49%
Warsmann (UMP) 42%
Subtil (FN) 9%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 55%
Warsmann (UMP) 45%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%e8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20-%20Champagne%20Ardenne.pdf

I can't say I'm really surprised (except perhaps by the 55-45 blowout, which does seem a bit exaggerated to me) given that the UMP is likely lower than 2004 nationally, and it's really unfavourable everywhere for the UMP.

The only hope if the current national polling sustains itself is the bad blood between Bachy and the Greenies coming out to hurt them. Bachy and the Greenies don't like each other much, and the Green list in 2004 didn't merge (IIRC) with Bachy, so, while it's still unlikely, maybe the Greenies and Bachy will find it hard to find common ground if both are qualify and a four-way runoff with PS, Greenies, UMP and FN might save the UMP.

Now I want a Bretagne poll to see a 60-40 runoff ... and 70-30 in Limousin!

[big bad fab]

Well... what is amazing is indeed this 10-point margin in the second round and, what is more, a poll by OpinionWay (another sarkozyst tool, remember ) and a sample of 1006.

With 50% of FN voters going to the UMP and 50% of MoDem voters (as the leftist voters of the MoDem have come back to the PS or the Greens), that means that, in the second round, there are people who voted for the extreme-left in the 1st round or who abstained who want to beat the right
(or even people who were ready to vote for the UMP in the 1st round, but don't want it to win...).

This is really bad.

BTW, Hash, no endorsement in Rhône-Alpes ?
I understand for EE, as Meyrieu is, for me, the example of this gauchisme pseudo-intellectuel, uniformisant et pédagogiste that I hate.
But why not Queyranne ?

As for me, as Malgorn has been attacked by some socialists, trying to describe her as a racist, well, I might eventually vote for her, after all.
Really hard not to have a NC or an Arthuis list...
I could go for Joncour, but, nationally, it would be like voting for Bayrou !

[Hash]

One weird thing about this poll is that even though 71% of FN voters vote for the UMP in the runoff, the PS gains a whole 6 points between a three-way and a duel, but the UMP only gains 3 points. If the FN did really split 70-30 for the right, you would obviously expect a narrower duel than 55-45, more along the lines of 52-48. Also surprising that Bachy gets 80%+ of Green voters despite the bad blood between them.

As for Rhône-Alpes, I don't know enough abot Queyranne to make a solid endorsement (in Aquitaine, I know Rousset is a de-centralist, in Bretagne I like Le Drian a lot, in Auvergne I hate Marleix, and in Centre I don't like Novelli). Plus, the last time I endorsed a PS candidate in the Rhône-Alpes was Gerard Collomb, and it's left an extremely horrid taste in my mouth. I don't like Malgorn, though the PS' attacks on her have been disgusting and have made me colder towards them. Malgorn is quite authoritarian, she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.

Nantes affair I guess.

Gérard Onesta in Midi-Pyrénées here, well, I would vote for anyone from EE here.

Amusingly, on a regional debate on France3 Midi-Pyrénées, yesterday evening, he exposed all the contempt that Malvy had toward him until now, and that they could maintain themselves in the 2nd round. Haha, Midi-Pyrénées to UMP! Well, no, I think it was more to impress the audience, I very doubt they would do that, but, if so, would be 'funny'...

Also that's cool with my DSL offer (Bouygues) I have all the regional France3 channels, then I could have zapped here or there in regions...

Oh, and, some polls that I like (because they go in my sense), very high abstention according to Opinion Way, 50% (dunno whether there have been more polls from other pollsters about that), and MoDem at 4% nationally, though for the latter maybe that's not so well polled, maybe 2-3 could fit better.

Ah, and, finally, these polls could have an interest, they hammer the truth that PS will win everything, in an abstention context, those who hesitate between left and abstention would go for abstention thinking it's won anyways, and those who hesitate between right and abstention, would go to vote.

This in a context where mainly olds and bobos would vote, good for UMP and Greens.

Add to this that those who voted for FN 6 years ago, and who gave some regions to the left, would maybe pay more attention to their vote if they want a region on the right.

I really think FN will take a slap nationally, that it could be the official end of Le Pen father. I think it will be slapped in PACA (I give him 8% there by now, and 6% to Ligue du Sud), and that Marine will make a success in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, officializing the new FN, with its biggest stronghold passing from PACA to NPdC, the opening of a new era. Actually, especially when I see what is Ligue du Sud in PACA.

Also, well, Colomb should pay attention in Rhône-Alpes, by trying to show the regional PS close of Frêche, could be bad for PS, Languedoc-Roussillon and Rhône-Alpes are, quite, different.

Also, interesting the movement in gas refineries, if the syndicalists become too extreme, it could also favor the right, to be seen...

[Hash]

The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.

Oh, there is no media hype around them, or I discover it.

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

[Hash]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

[Hash]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2010-02-09/paca-la-ligue-du-sud-defie-le-pen-dans-son-jardin/917/0/422056

The FN dissidents that are surely known in the region by those interested by this wing, plus the presence of Bloc Identitaire with them that don't fear to use 'clear messages', in the mood we're living in (identitary/immigration problems, Mc Do affair is one more stuff), with what happened in PACA after Algeria matches for example, the local implantation of this list plus the clarity of their message compared to the good ole tired Le Pen who wanna give the power to his daughter, I wouldn't underestimate them, a dynamic can clearly play in their favor, I maintain at least 6% is possible, and I maintain a 8% Le Pen is possible too there.

[Hash]

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.

Well, as you could have seen I don't put all my arguments on Guy Macary. Bloc Identitaire can make a lot of noise in the context we are living and with a FN seen more and more as mild. For this and all what I have said, by now I'd maintain the figures I gave.

But, yes, of course, now we can just see March 14.

[PGSable]

Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

[Hash]

Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

[big bad fab]

Every dissident of the FN has been crushed, unless he is first a local baron (but, in this case, he is only able to do well in his baronny).

That's because all the dissidents were real extreme-rightists and because they left because of ideological fights (Le Gallou, Martinez, Bernard Antony-Romain Marie) or because of strictly personal ambitions (Mégret, Lang - but, please note that these 2 were, what is more, "intellectual" far-rightists, not at all popular among protest voters...).

Bompard and Spieler are local barons (the mayor of Nice was one, also).

So the FN voters, who are, for 90% of them, only protest voters, don't follow the dissidents.

This isn't the end of the FN. Unfortunately. They are harmful enough for the right to make victories in Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté and PACA impossible.

The day we will be able to say that the FN is out is when Le Pen will be died. Physically.
But, with the media Schadenfreude to have PanzerGirl as a prime-time guest, well, it's possible that the now powerful-for-more-than-a-generation FN will last for very long, even though at 8-10% rather than 12-15%.

More than a generation means that, maybe, the children of FN voters are now old enough to vote themselves: that's the real political victory for a party...

My only hope is that Panzer Girl is positioning herself at the left, with appeal to blue-collar voters: so I hope it will be able less harmful for the right... But that's only a small hope.

[PGSable]

Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

They submitted lists in each of the five departments, but they are campaigning in Loire-Atlantique only.

[Hash]

Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

They submitted lists in each of the five departments, but they are campaigning in Loire-Atlantique only.

I long for the pre-2004 system.

[minionofmidas]

What date are these elections?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

March 14 and 21.

[Hash]

There's also a by-election in a rural Lozere canton on March 21, ftr.

[Hash]

IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%

[Umengus]

IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%

Good for Le Pen.

[Hash]

IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

[Hash]

IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.

[big bad fab]

IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.

And in Nord-Pas-de-Calais (still in case of a duel, but it won't be the case).

These results are really big and this is not CSA !
I don't know what Sarkozy will do after that.
He doesn't seem to want to change Fillon (indeed, things would be worse...).
Make Borloo create a new centre-right party or alliance and transforming the UMP in a big coalition ?