French Regionals 2010

[big bad fab]

Here is mine. Slightly different. Not to be contrarian, just because regional modds are always changing. I'll update it from time to time.

Alsace: Safe UMP

Aquitaine: Safe PS If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Franche-Comté: Tossup Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win.

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...

Limousin: Safe PS

Lorraine: Tossup The right should win on the paper, but is so divided...

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS

Basse-Normandie: Tossup It should be a "lean UMP", but not with Lambert and all the infightings...

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.

Picardie: Safe PS

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Lean UMP (GAIN)  I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.

Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.

Overall:
Right 4
Left 15
Tossup 3

If I have to break the ties, I would say Lorraine to the right and Franche-Comté and Basse-Normandie to the left.... But that's just for the moment and just not to give everything to the left...

[big bad fab]

Update and not a good one for the right, with Falco being NOT a candidate... OMG !

Alsace: Safe UMP
no change

Aquitaine: Safe PS If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.
no change

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.
no change

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time and François Sauvadet, from the NC, is a "classic" rural local baron, not really appealing. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...
no change

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.
no change

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.
no change

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !
no change

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.
no change

Franche-Comté: Lean PS Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.
Joyandet is now uncertain to lead the list. Without him, only old and unknown littl barons.
tossup -> lean PS

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win. And with Santini, Karoutchi, Yade, Jouanno all in the Hauts-de-Seine, it will be a harmful mess...
no change

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...
no change

Limousin: Safe PS
no change

Lorraine: Tossup The left is a bit "exhausted" here and the right should win on the paper, but is so divided...
no change

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
no change

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS
no change

Basse-Normandie: Lean PS It should be a "lean UMP", and with Lambert out, it should be again, BUT... Nicole Ameline tries to come back and Lambert has promised to do all what he can to harm Philippe Augier, former MoDem now NC, the last chance for the right...
tossup -> lean PS

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
no change

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.
Now that Bachelot is almost out, if Béchu is candidate, the right is better. The only problem is that, in the Greater West, when the UMP has a problem anywhere, the only answer you've got is: Christophe Béchu... We need many Christophe Béchu...
no change

Picardie: Safe PS
no change

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists
no change

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  I wanted to be a bit more daring on this one. But Falco isn't candidate any longer. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum and the region is really on the right now, but with a dull candidate as Deflesselles or Teissier, it will be harder. Still, Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
lean UMP -> tossup

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.
no change

(Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.)

Overall:
Right 3
Left 17
Tossup 2

[big bad fab]

Another poll from CSA (crap pollster, that regularly overrate the PS, and even more the MoDem and the FN), for "La Chaîne Parlementaire":

UMP 31
PS 21
Verts 17
MoDem 8
FN 8
PCF-PG 6
NPA 6
LO 3

Of course, even worse for the right.
But the choices were a bit narrow for the centre-right and the right in this poll...! And CSA is biased.

But, of course, a poll by OpinionWay for Le Figaro can't be viewed as balanced either !

I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...

[big bad fab]

The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.

Chaisemartin has switched to the Parti Radical... yes the "real" one, the Borloo one... if only all the MoDem little barons could do the same

And, no, it's not Boutin's ego in this case, it's really a constant humiliation of Catholic right by Sarkozy, Morano, Hortefeux. And, well, for the PCD, there's only IdF, Pays de la Loire et Rhône-Alpes. Elsewhere ? they are really ZERO.

[big bad fab]

Even if Jean Sarkozy withdrew from the presidential office of the EPAD, the harm is done.
I think the right is now down for the remaining 2 and a half years of Sarkozy's mandate.

The only way for him to be reelected is a continuing division of the left and the centre-left.

And IdF polls, which are indeed good for the left globally speaking, are bad for it in the details: no prevailing party, a weak but not at all dead MoDem,  a divided but strong far-left...

In the regional elections, it will be bad for the right in the second round (even though there can be surprises: remember what I've said on Languedoc-Roussillon ? ). But in a presidential election, it may still work for the right...
Not that I hope this, because I think that if Sarkozy is reelected, he will fall asleep "à la Chirac" and that it would be very bad in 2017.

Anyway, the most interesting thing in this poll is to see that, even in IdF, a small centre-right list is a GOOD thing for the right, as it steals votes from the MoDem and the Greens.

[big bad fab]

Well, it seems as if Champagne-Ardenne won't be won by the UMP either.

When you're at less than 30% nationally, when you're busy erasing any other rightist party in the first round (no MPF, no NC, no PCD, no Alliance centriste list, etc), when the FN is able to make it to the 2nd round in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Lorraine, Franche-Comté, Rhône-Alpes, Languedoc-Roussillon, PACA, maybe even in Bourgogne, Centre and Haute-Normandie,
everything is lost.

Will the UMP be able to save Alsace ? I think so, even with an FN in the 2nd round.
But that's all.

The interesting question now: will Sarkozy be really contested AFTER the regionals ?
Because his remaining power on the entire right is that he was so-called election-winner.
Some doubts emerged in 2008 (municipal elections), but the presidential polls (yes....) have been enough to silence those doubts.

But in the middle of 2010, with a DSK on the rise (and maybe, one day, a Hollande on the rise or weird polls with Cohn-Bendit beating Sarkozy in the 2nd round) and many in the MoDem ready to switch to the left, Sarkozy won't be any longer the saviour of the right.

Prepare for some interesting internal fights.

[big bad fab]

I haven't said that DSK or Cohn-Bendit will be candidates.
Just that polls testing their names and finding they're beating Sarkozy will have a large impact on the right. Why self-censorship if your "saviour" isn't able to win elections again ?

These regionals, as they seem to turn, may be a HUGE defeat for the right:
- FN on the rise again, but with a blue-collar and protest vote (so very difficult now to gain in the 2nd round)
- Greens big (and Greens are strongly on the left, whatever some voters think) but not threatening the PS, bigger
- MoDem not dead
- mainstream right lower than 30%, i.e. in Chirac-Raffarin-Villepin waters...

All those who have forced themselves to keep quiet will feel allowed to fire at the Dear Leader.
I just hope Villepin won't be the one who will benefit from this, that would be outrageous.
I know that, unfortunately, Juppé is forever doomed. Barnier has gone now, Fillon isn't ambitious enough, Woerth is unknown and too straight.
If it's Copé or Baroin or even Borloo, so be it.

[big bad fab]

News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

[big bad fab]

News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...

There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.

In fact, the NC and the AC are waiting for the UMP... But it seems that in Ille-et-Vilaine, Dominique de Legge wants to be nr 1 on the list and not let an NC take the lead.
I hope they will end their "negotiations" before the deadline to declare candidacies .

[big bad fab]

An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.

Cayeux isn't a bad candidate, that's true (especially if you compare her to dull Gewerc...), but it's not enough.
And with the real risk of a FN above 10%, the UMP is of course in very bad shape in Picardie too.

[big bad fab]

There will be many votes wasted for the left in the first round in Brittany, but, well, wouldn't it be an even better candidate for a firs-round win than Limousin ?

We can really ask the question, as there won't be any NC autonomous list () and the bad is already done, with Malgorn Nr.1 in the region AND in Finistère, Le Guen ready to have a "mission d'information parlementaire en Afrique"...., Bruno Joncour able to get a good result for the MoDem, Goulard acting against his own camp in Morbihan and de Legge as an unknown and outside candidate for the UMP in Ille-et-Vilaine...

And, back to Ile-de-France, poor Valérie, her career will be stopped...
With the MoDem "gadget", Duflot very punchy and DLR as a protest vote on the right, she will do bad, very bad... And everybody will be affected, Jouanno, Yade, NKM, J.C. Lagarde. Unless they all agree to make Pécresse responsible for that... (Karoutchi, Santini and Sarkozy will be very happy to do just that !)

[big bad fab]

Currently, the UMP should be able to keep Alsace but would be unable to win any other region than Champagne-Ardenne, which is a toss-up.
And Corsica would be won by some sort of left majority.

Even in Pays-de-la-Loire, the momentum isn't at all on the right side.

So you might ask why I've written those lines... you're damn right...
Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.

[big bad fab]

In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.

Thanks, Hash, to let me think there is still a hope...

You remember I early referred to this possibility, but I don't believe in it any longer.

Either the FN will make it to the 2nd round (France Jamet, its main candidate, is a "good" one in this region: daughter of Alain Jamet -yep, always nepotism in the FN - she is from a perfect poujadist tradition),
or the UMP will be behind one left list in the second round...

Nationally, Benoît, I don't think there will be a suspense between the PS and the Greens. The Greens will be behind, even in IdF and Rhône-Alpes. It will be a "classical" election of rejection of the incumbent "power", no more.
Boring....

[big bad fab]

Unfortunately, I'm not so sure any longer that Couderc can take the winner prize even in a 3-way second round.
Aubry's interference "from Paris" will doom the Mandroux list (local voters won't be pleased...)  and Freche will be the big winner.
And, in the 2nd round, there will probably be a union list between Mandroux and Greens-PCF, but it will be nasty and inefficient.

Alsace will be the only UMP region next March...

[big bad fab]

IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf

If the second round is very, very positive for the UMP, 46% is really a ceiling:
34 + 5 from the FN + 3 from MoDem + 2 MPF + 2 from AEI.

And with some abstention... it's really over for Novelli, despite the fact that Bonneau is a bad candidate (22% isn't very good...).

[big bad fab]

I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.
But, still, everything is possible.
Even a 4-way 2nd round....
I mean, it will be difficult between the Greens and the PS between the 1st and 2nd rounds...

As for Corsica, I think it's lost for the UMP but I'm surprised that it's quite close.

[big bad fab]

I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...

Yep, especially with the MEI, but a 2 points difference on FN score is big, sort of. (Except if the NSP are higher in one case...)

[big bad fab]

Very often, I'm wrong in electoral predictions

But in Languedoc, I keep thinking Frëche will win.
See, even with a divided left, Couderc isn't able to be above.
And, imagine Jamet can make it to the second round, it's over for the UMP.

Granted some FN voters vote for Frêche, but I think he also grasps many votes from the far-left: anti-Paris vote and anti-bobo vote will be strong.

At least, there is one region where there is some sort of suspense !

BTW, in Ile-de-France, this is 55-45 in the 2nd round for PS-Verts against Pécresse... 10 points...

[big bad fab]

Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.

It's not impossible, as many voters of Green lists aren't aware for who they are really voting...
And remember that there is France Gamerre (Génération Ecologie) in Marseilles (true, she might have a weight of 0.1%, but she contributes to give a more centrist or rightist image of ecologism, that many voters aren't able to differentiaite from the Greens) and that there are many small movements of defense of animals' rights, that were, for some of them, money pumps for the extreme right...
They might also have contributed to alter the image of ecologism.

But the main thing is that PACA should be the first to tilt towards the right IF the FN wasn't able to make it to the second round.
50% for Vauzelle in the previous poll was really high.

Plus there have been some corruption affairs recently in Bouches-du-Rhône, more on the left than on the right.
Plus Guérini and Mennucci seem to be open and harsh enemies now... So...

Anyway, Mariani won't win, but it's more logical to have a (slightly) competitive situation.

(5 months ago, when it was still worth making predictions, I've said that:
I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
Falco is half-out and Bompard completely down, but Mariani isn't a bad candidate against an ageing Vauzelle and Le Pen isn't very high.)

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics...
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.

[big bad fab]

And please note this is the sole region where they are putting forward lists !

There is also lists named "Terres de Bretagne", full of peasants.
The Télégramme de Brest says this is the agro-industry lobby.

I'm not so sure. Maybe a hidden way for the right to gather people that could not vote at all, go to the MoDem or, very marginally, to the FN.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, a Vincent Méhaignerie (35 years old) is on it. Don't know anything about him.

[big bad fab]

TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.

It's even boring in Languedoc-Roussillon now...
And we can't even expect fights for the presidencies after the polls.

But, at least, there may be a positive result: killing the MoDem.
I hope so, but I'm not so sure.
And I hope Aubry won't be seen as the only winner of all this.

[big bad fab]

Well... what is amazing is indeed this 10-point margin in the second round and, what is more, a poll by OpinionWay (another sarkozyst tool, remember ) and a sample of 1006.

With 50% of FN voters going to the UMP and 50% of MoDem voters (as the leftist voters of the MoDem have come back to the PS or the Greens), that means that, in the second round, there are people who voted for the extreme-left in the 1st round or who abstained who want to beat the right
(or even people who were ready to vote for the UMP in the 1st round, but don't want it to win...).

This is really bad.

BTW, Hash, no endorsement in Rhône-Alpes ?
I understand for EE, as Meyrieu is, for me, the example of this gauchisme pseudo-intellectuel, uniformisant et pédagogiste that I hate.
But why not Queyranne ?

As for me, as Malgorn has been attacked by some socialists, trying to describe her as a racist, well, I might eventually vote for her, after all.
Really hard not to have a NC or an Arthuis list...
I could go for Joncour, but, nationally, it would be like voting for Bayrou !

[big bad fab]

Every dissident of the FN has been crushed, unless he is first a local baron (but, in this case, he is only able to do well in his baronny).

That's because all the dissidents were real extreme-rightists and because they left because of ideological fights (Le Gallou, Martinez, Bernard Antony-Romain Marie) or because of strictly personal ambitions (Mégret, Lang - but, please note that these 2 were, what is more, "intellectual" far-rightists, not at all popular among protest voters...).

Bompard and Spieler are local barons (the mayor of Nice was one, also).

So the FN voters, who are, for 90% of them, only protest voters, don't follow the dissidents.

This isn't the end of the FN. Unfortunately. They are harmful enough for the right to make victories in Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté and PACA impossible.

The day we will be able to say that the FN is out is when Le Pen will be died. Physically.
But, with the media Schadenfreude to have PanzerGirl as a prime-time guest, well, it's possible that the now powerful-for-more-than-a-generation FN will last for very long, even though at 8-10% rather than 12-15%.

More than a generation means that, maybe, the children of FN voters are now old enough to vote themselves: that's the real political victory for a party...

My only hope is that Panzer Girl is positioning herself at the left, with appeal to blue-collar voters: so I hope it will be able less harmful for the right... But that's only a small hope.

[big bad fab]

IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.

And in Nord-Pas-de-Calais (still in case of a duel, but it won't be the case).

These results are really big and this is not CSA !
I don't know what Sarkozy will do after that.
He doesn't seem to want to change Fillon (indeed, things would be worse...).
Make Borloo create a new centre-right party or alliance and transforming the UMP in a big coalition ?