French Regionals 2010

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An early start to the thread...

Regional elections for the regional legislatures of 26 "regions" (22 in France in addition to Martinique, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Guyane) are being held in March 2010 (probably the 21st and 28th, as in 2004), six years after the 2004 elections, a nightmare for the right.

The current electoral system was adopted in 2003 (the same time as the Euros electoral reform) to ensure permanent, stable majority administrations in all regions. The system used is a two-round system, with 10% of votes cast (suffrages exprimés, as opposed to registered voters, or inscrits, used in legislative elections) as a threshold for a spot in the runoff. However, if a list gets over 5% of votes cast, it can "merge" with a qualified list, meaning that the defeated list get spots on the list it merged with. For seats, there is a 5% threshold in the runoff. The winning list in the runoff automatically gets a fourth of the seats as a majority bonus, and the remaining seats are attributed proportionally, first on a region-wide basis and then divided up by 'section' (departments) based on the votes in each 'section'.

...all of this is true for all regions... except Corse - where the threshold for the runoff is 5%.

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Prior to 2003, the regionals used a one-round pure PR system based on departments. Lists winning over 5% of the vote won seats in a department etc. That led to winners without majorities, and the strength of the FN led to mass chaos sessions when time came to elect the President of the Region. Some RPR-UDF Presidents were elected with FN support, and, in fact, the creation of DL in 1998 was based around this situation: the UDF condemned the election of right-wing Presidents with FN support while the members who created DL had no problems with that. The 1998 series was one of mass chaos, confusion and fighting, indeed. Some RPR-UDF Presidents elected with FN while they didn't want FN support resigned immediately, sometimes leading to minority PS administrations, RPR-UDF Presidents elected with PS support...

In 2004, in the context of the UMP's (Chirac/Raffarin) massive unpopularity, the left swept 20 of the 22 Metro regions except Alsace and Corse. Even in Corse, the left had a majority, but the warring factions of the left (Giacobbi vs. Zuccarelli) never got along, so the UMP won. In the first round, the UDF had common lists with the UMP in only 6 regions, while the Greens and PCF often had common lists with the PS by the first round. Most UDF lists merged with the UMP, as did Green and PCF lists.

Results:

Alsace: Adrien Zeller (UMP) re-elected
Aquitaine: Alain Rousset (PS) re-elected
Auvergne: Pierre-Joël Bonté (PS) elected Valéry Giscard d'Estaing defeated
Bourgogne: François Patriat (PS) elected Jean-Pierre Soisson defeated
Bretagne: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS) elected Josselin de Rohan defeated
Centre: Michel Sapin (PS) elected
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Paul Bachy (PS) elected Jean-Claude Etienne defeated
Corse: Camille de Rocca Serra (UMP) elected José Rossi (DL) defeated
Franche-Comté: Raymond Forni (PS) elected Jean-François Humbert defeated
Île-de-France: Jean-Paul Huchon (PS) re-elected
Languedoc-Roussillon: Georges Frêche (PS) elected Jacques Blanc defeated
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS) re-elected
Lorraine: Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS) elected Gérard Longuet defeated
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS) re-elected
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Daniel Percheron (PS) re-elected
Basse-Normandie: Philippe Duron (PS) elected René Garrec defeated
Haute-Normandie: Alain Le Vern (PS) re-elected
Pays de la Loire: Jacques Auxiette (PS) elected François Fillon defeated
Picardie: Claude Gewerc (PS) elected Gilles de Robien (UDF) defeated
Poitou-Charentes: Ségolène Royal (PS) elected Élisabeth Morin defeated
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Michel Vauzelle (PS) re-elected
Rhône-Alpes: Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS) elected Anne-Marie Comparini (UDF) defeated
Guadeloupe: Victorin Lurel (PS) elected Lucette Michaux-Chevry defeated
Guyane: Antoine Karam (PSG) re-elected
Martinique: Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM) re-elected
La Réunion: Paul Vergès (PCR) re-elected


So, 2010. The right has decided to keep the electoral system, it seems, despite some talk of changing it back to the 1998 system. In addition, the UMP nominated almost all of its top candidates very early in online primaries, leading to a pretty low-quality field of candidates. This includes Alain Lambert, an uninspiring Senator and a dirty opportunist in Basse-Normandie; Hervé Novelli, who represents a brand of libertarianism and neoliberalism quite unpopular with voters in the Centre; and Roselyne Bachelot, the weirdo Health Minister in 'Pays-de-la-Loire'. The NC has nominated top candidates, as it did prior to the Euros, and they now negotiate places for these candidates with the UMP... unless the NC risks it by going alone in the first round (possibly playing on its newfound message of being the only centre - the MoDem is now, practically, a centre-left party, with de Sarnez playing chummy with Peillon, Hue, Duflot and so forth). The merger threshold is 5%, and the NC is about 2% of the votes alone, but it could (big could) do more than 5% in the Centre, Basse-Normandie, Haute-Normandie and why not Picardie. The MPF will likely support the UMP lists by the first round, as it did in 2004, though I have heard talk that the UMP might actually prefer an independent MPF list in PACA (probably one led by Jacques or Marie-Claude Bompard, the ex-FNs from Orange) to hurt the FN.

However, the PS is definitely on the defensive after being on the offensive in 1992, 1998 and 2004 (1992 was, of course, an epic fail). In addition, the brief rosy days for the old Plural Left in 2004 are quite gone, with the Greenies very much ready to go it alone in all regions (unlike in 2004) plus the PCF and PG wishing the renew the Left Front by running alone in all regions in the first round. The PS will have a hard time forging alliances, since all of its historical allies are growing independent since June, and the PCF-PG has called bullsh**t on Aubry's proposal to forge an alliance with the MoDem, while the MoDem still is cold to an outright alliance with the PS... The MoDem seems to hesitate, again, due to the hard situation it finds itself in. IIRC, Bayrou wishes to unilaterally adopt a 'national policy' vis-a-vis alliances, unlike in the locals where it was more on the cas par cas, meaning that it supported Juppé (UMP) in Bordeaux, Aubry (PS) in Lille, and ended up endorsing at some point Rebsamen (PS) in Dijon, Guérini (PS) in Marseille, Destot (PS) in Grenoble... some local MoDems liked to ally with the UMP (Bordeaux), while in other cases the local leaders liked to work with the PS. And the NPA is also a force to watch, and it also refuses all runoff alliances with the PS.

However, I think the nightmare scenarios for the PS based on the June results are off the point. Firstly, regionals and Euros are different elections and since 2003, the electoral systems are different. Secondly, you have 60% turnout in regionals, while you have 40% turnout in the Euros. Thirdly, voters have voted differently in Euros since they often give massive slaps to parties (PS in 1984, 1994 and 2009; RPR in 1999) and beautiful results by 'maverick parties' often have little tomorrow (Radicals in 1994; RPF-MPF in 1999; even PS in 2004 given that 2005 was a year of division for the PS and 2007 wasn't very nice either). Fourthly, regional elections have 'candidates' that are more well-known and with stronger following than MEPs. Fifthly, I see that the PS is currently morphing into the old RadSoc Party, meaning a party of notables in local administrations, a party of local administrations. Regionals also tend to have less protest voting, especially since 2004.

So, the situation in 2010 is interesting... and I shall post my first predictions later today.

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The big question at the moment is whether Frêche will receive PS support to run for re-election in Languedoc-Roussillon (he was expelled from the party after he made racist comments).

The Languedoc-Roussillon PS is almost all behind him, only Helene Mandroux (Mayor of Montpellier) is a major holdout, since they're rivals. In addition, I'm pretty sure he has the Herault federation backed up behind him, and that's big. What seems possible, since I think Frêche does not fit the conditions required to gain the PS endorsement, is that his lieutenant, Eric Andrieu may be the PS top candidate if the PS endorses the Frêche faction.

However, the Greens and PCF are staunch opponents of Frêche and the PCF has already threatened to not merge with the PS in the runoff if Frêche is candidate. If the PCF crosses 10%, as it almost did in the Euros, this is important.

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Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.

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Alsace: Safe UMP
Aquitaine: Safe PS
Auvergne: Safe PS Valéry Giscard d'Estaing is gone, and the region is a left-leaning one with strong results in Allier, Puy-de-Dome with the right limited to small Cantal and Haute-Loire.
Bourgogne: Tossup The right finds itself in a tough situation here.
Bretagne: Safe PS
Centre: Lean PS Could also be safe, since Novelli sucks.
Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one.
Corse: Tossup This depends on the candidates, especially on the left. Also, watch out for the nationalists.
Franche-Comté: Tossup
Île-de-France: Lean PS I think the right's digs on the Big Prize could end up like in 2004...
Languedoc-Roussillon: Safe Left The fight is on the left.
Limousin: Safe PS
Lorraine: Tossup Another big right-wing target, and quite winnable.
Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS The FN makes the runoff here, and Marine Le Pen probably runs here, since it's her new preferred place to carpetbag to.
Basse-Normandie: Tossup
Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
Pays de la Loire: Tossup Auxiette has a good chance at re-election, but the combined right was very strong here in the Euros... but Bachelot sucks.
Picardie: Safe PS The FN makes the runoff here
Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS This region can go screw themselves.
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  Depends on the UMP candidate, Falco might be a good candidate. The FN makes the runoff here
Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS
Guadeloupe: Safe PS
Guyane: No clue
Martinique: No clue
La Réunion: Safe PCR

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Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.

Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely. I would say it would be even more unlikely if Giacobbi made it into the government, because he seems like he would be the natural candidate of a united left otherwise.

United Left under Giacobbi? I have serious doubts that his colleague Zuccarelli would accept that, given that he hates him, and I think Zuccarelli is still interested by a run in 2010.

What's up with île Bourbon (aka La Reunion)? Why so leftwing?

Local politics overseas are often very complex and low-coverage affairs, often highly dependent on personalities. Paul Vergès is very popular in Reunion, and the PCR represents an autonomist line quite popular in a department with a staggering unemployment rate and with a very diverse population. Note, on the other hand, that the lack of Paul Vergès means that in the General Council, the PCR is a fourth party and the presidency is held by a moderate UMPer elected with the votes of the PS and PCR.

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Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Corse will depend a lot on who are the candidates and what base they bring and how they behave in a runoff. However, Corse often goes against national trends in some ways (UMP vote share fell in Corse-du-Sud between 2004 and 2009 Euros, Le Pen's 2007 vote share was close to his 2002 vote share, the left gained two seats in 2002 legislative etc.); so they might be the left-wing's surprise gain. However, the Corsican left makes the PS seem like a fully united party, so...

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It will be interesting, but I don't think the left vote will be split so evenly as to allow the UMP to run up the middle in the runoff and win. The left wins, and, imo, Frèche wins.

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omgdz no wai rly

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There has been talk that the UMP might be amenable to having a NC, like Philippe Augier (former deputy for western Caen) take the top spot of a UMP-NC list... maybe they realize that a scumbag like Lambert is acid to a potential gain.

Augier is much better material than Lambert for a potential victory.

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I do hope you're right, since I hate Auxiette more than anything else. But Bachelot isn't really an asset for the right here, though... but I don't really think that will hurt the UMP that much in the voting booth...

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There is talk to dump Henri de Richemont, the UMP's candidate for a more high-profile name like Dominique Bussereau (President of Charente-Maritime CG and Secretary of State for Transports) or even Jean-Pierre Raffarin. de Richemont has low name recognition and he's pretty much a loser anyways. Though maybe it would be nicer to sacrifice a no-name ex-Senator for some place than risk Bussereau or Raffarin.

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Quite a risky call you've made Won't disagree (or agree) until I get more info on this race.

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Here are the main strategies discussed inside the MoDem:

The extreme-centrist strategy of autonomous lists in the first round, keeping them in the runoff if possible and if not, no fusions.

Autonomous lists in the first round, alliance with the left or ecologists in runoff. Strategy supported by Marielle de Sarnez, and imo, Bayrou himself.

Alliance with the ecologists in the first round and the left in the runoff. Strategy supported by Corinne Lepage.

'Defferre strategy': alliance with the left by the first round in a large anti-Sarko rally. Supported by Jean-François Kahn.

So, nobody supports the idea of 'alliances of differing geography' - aka, a case-by-case alliance like in 2008. Those who did support this have probably been purged by the Politburo and the General Secretary himself.

And if anybody needed proof that the MoDem is a centre-left party. Ancestor of Christian democracy my ass. Poor Lecanuet, Poher, Pfimlin, Schumann...

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Alain Lambert has dropped out after throwing a hissy fit claiming nobody supported him and/or nobody trusted him. The media thinks that this clears the way for the Mayor of Deauville, Philippe Augier (NC).

However, Alain Lambert hates him and blames him for the loss of the region in 2004 (Augier was the top candidate of the UDF list which very reluctantly supported the UMP in the runoff) and said outright "Je ne le soutiendrai jamais". The old fool supports a 'candidate aged 30-45'. Potential candidates who fit that asshole's requirements include these two candidates, which aren't really bigwigs: Joël Bruneau (45, President of the UMP Calvados Fed) and Philippe Gosselin (43, Deputy for the Manche-Saint-Lô constituency). Guénhaël Huet, Deputy for Avranches; said that he wants 'the union of the Presidential Majority around a project with a younger list'. Augier, ftr, is 60 and Lambert is 62.

Also, there's some talk of Bachelot dropping out in PdL®. The young President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council and newly-elected MEP Christophe Béchu is floated as a replacement if she does drop out.

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She's a twat, so it isn't really hard to be better than her. And you need to be a twat to criticize Dear Leader openly.

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Hunault is more like the generic-NC-candidate-who-we-wish-could-get-a-spot-on-the-UMP-list guy and has little name recognition outside of his constituency and surrounding areas (and a lot of these areas happen to be in Region Bretagne anyways). Though if he did run he'd probably sweep his constituency like he did in the 2004 Euros and poll 1% elsewhere.

Arthuis would be a better candidate for them, no doubt.

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First poll! (nationwide, bleh)

OpinionWay for LeFigaro.



UMP 32%
PS 19%
Greens 16%
PCF-PG 8%
MoDem 7%
FN 6%
NPA 5%
NC 4%
Others 3%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/oway2.pdf
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/10/02/01002-20091002ARTFIG00004-l-ump-loin-devant-au-premier-tour-les-verts-talonnent-le-ps-.php

If these high numbers hold for the Greenies until March (I'm surprised that they've held since June, as shown in Rambouillet, could the Euros have, for once, started a political trend?), they could finish with pleasing results in March and in places like IdF or Rhone-Alpes the PS could be threatened by the first round. Duflot-Pecresse runoff instead of Huchon-Pecresse!? I think the Greenies could be a serious thing in March for the PS.

Anyways, these numbers don't spell ZOMG UMP LANDSLIDES since the UMP has no reserves except for the NC: the Parliamentary Left has 43% (50% with the MoDem, 55% with the Trots) against 36% for the Majority (42% with the FN). And the article makes a good point of mentioning that the first round is the Socialist problem, the runoff is the UMP problem.

And, yeah, absolutely shocking to see Sarko et al so passionate about 'territorial reform'!

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I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...

What might be encouraging for the Greenies is that 60% of their voters are voting on "local concerns" over "national concerns". Which isn't the case for the PS, whose voters are by far and large the We Hate Sarko gang (shared with the Left Front).

In Corse, the top candidate will be Emmanuelle de Gentili, the deputy mayor of Bastia.

FTR, if the left wins in Corse, it won't be the Socialists since the PS has very little actual infrastructure on the island. If the left wins, it will be a high-profile LeftRad or DVG.

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Jacques Meyer is only a regional vice president and maire-adjoint of Reims. So, yay, a nobody again.

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Only Guadeloupe is worthwhile, and Victorin Lurel will run again. They'll run total nobodies in the other regions who will lose. Except in Guyane, where there's no PS. It's the PSG there.

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Jacques Bompard and Philippe de Villiers seem to be heading for an all-out war. While de Villiers is licking Sarkozy's ass, Bompard has shown his opposition to the Viscount's strategy and also to Sarkozy himself. Now, Bompard, a former FN-turned-MPF and Mayor of Orange (Vaucluse), is leading his own list in PACA for the regionals: the Southern League (Ligue du sud, named after Bompard's role model, the Italian Lega Nord). Patrick Louis, the MPF's local boss, quickly said that Bompard was acting independently and that the MPF disapproved of the Southern League. However, Bompard's list has gathered some support on the far-right, like Guy Macary who led the FN's list in the region in 2004 (in the absence of Le Pen).

And in PACA, the right is fighting for a candidate. With its best candidates, Hubert Falco and Renaud Muselier out, the fight is between Guy Teissier and Thierry Mariani. Bernard Deflesselles is also presumed to be in, but he's a minor name. Sarkozy supports Mariani, and Gaudin probably does too. Lionnel Luca and other UMP MPs support Teissier.

And a poll in PACA, a UMP internal:

UMP 31-34%
Michel Vauzelle (PS) 27-29%
Greens 14-16%
FN 12-14%
MoDem 5-6%
Bompard not tested

Vauzelle (PS) would win a runoff with anywhere between 49 and 51%.

Le Figaro.fr has a good overview.

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By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.

Turnout is quite good in regionals, and worlds better compared to the Euros. You had close to 65% turnout in 2004, though quite lower in 1998 (still above fifty, afaik).

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Bachelot has withdrawn her candidacy. The UMP will announce its new list leader on November 28, but the big name seems to be Béchu (again). With Bachelot out of the running, naturally, Auxiette's chances of winning re-election seem dim.

Béchu wins the nod, and he increases the UMP's odds of winning. I hope the imperalist-colonialist Auxiette dies in a fire.

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The Bloc identitaire, a radical far-right outfit (anti-immigration, agrarian-populist, and ethnonationalist) will organize as a political party and run in future elections. It will probably support Jacques Bompard's Southern League in the regionals in PACA.

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Old IFOP poll in Languedoc-Roussillon for the PS.

http://www.montpellier-journal.fr/fichiers/sondageandrieufreche.pdf

I'll post the scenario in which Frêche (DVG) is the PS candidate, and not the Eric Andrieu (PS) vs. Frêche (DVG) scenarios.

Couderc (UMP) 27%
Frêche (PS) 25%
Roumegas (Greens) 16%
Aliot (FN) 11%
Liberti (PCF-PG) 8%
Dufour (MoDem) 6%
? (NPA) 4%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Couderc (UMP) 38%
Frêche (PS) 36%
Roumegas (Greens) 26%

Frêche (PS-Greens) 53%
Couderc (UMP) 47%

Not testing the FN is annoying, but if Aliot makes the runoff, he'd probably poll 11% or slightly less (8-10%).

Also, the two-way is surprisingly good for the UMP considering how runoffs are lethal to them, and considering how they polled only like 33% in the 2004 three-way runoff. Probably more of a result of good MoDem transfers (the Bayrou voters in 2007 break 51-49 for the left) and also 20% of Green voters in the Euro voting Couderc (and 10% of the PS, probably the big time Frêche haters).

A new far-right/Identitaire list based off of Bompard's Southern League, the League of the Midi, was not tested. If it polls well enough, it could draw Aliot (FN) down enough to prevent him from making the runoff.


...but not so good in Rhône-Alpes.

Grossetête (UMP) 31%
Queyranne (PS) 25%
Rebelle (Greens) 20% (18% for Tête)
Gollnisch (FN) 8%
Begag (MoDem) 7%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Queyranne (PS) 53%
Grossetête (UMP) 38%
Begag (MoDem) 9%

Queyranne (PS) 51%
Grossetête (UMP) 40%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%

The FN scenario is interesting in that Gollnisch's entry into the runoff polls the Socialists down a fair amount and the UMP down 1%. Not really surprising since I doubt people who still vote FN today will vote for Sarko's party in a runoff given how they hate each other, but I bring this up because it could mean interesting things in Languedoc-Roussillon if Aliot makes the runoff, then Couderc has a good chance at a surprise win.

Also, righties chose the wrong candidate since the poll says voters prefer Barnier (35%) over Grossetête (20%), Perben (19%) and Obergruppenführer Eric Judas Besson (18%)

As a reminder, Queyranne won 47% of the vote in the 2004 runoff against 38% for Comparini (UDF-UMP) and 15% for Gollnisch, whose result was down quite a bit from his 18.2% in the first round. The Greenies polled 10% in the first round, running alone.

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The NC presented its final list of its 22 'chefs de file', which will try to negotiate either a first-round alliance with the UMP or lead a NC-only list by the first round.

List: http://www.le-nouveaucentre.org/images/DocPresse/chefsdefilereg.pdf

They've taken the usual route of taking almost all of their MPs and sticking them with the label, like in the Euros. In regions where they're unknown, they found a regional councillor or Mayor of some place.

Sarkozy, which wants a universal first-round UMP-NC alliance, has proposed giving the NC 3 top spots (quite generous, given the NC is worth like 2%): Valérie Létard, Secretary of State to the Minister of Ecology (NPDC); François Sauvadet, leader of the NC group (Bourgogne); and Philippe Augier, Mayor of Deauville in Basse-Normandie.

However, the NC has a little dream of its own that Sarko would give up the leadership of the Only Region Which Really Matters to the NC. Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93). Santini led the UDF list in 2004, and he merged with Copé's UMP list.

The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.

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Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.

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Corse (Ifop)

UMP 29%
PNC 17%
PRG-Giacobbi 13%
PRG-Zuccarelli 11%
CSD-Renucci 11%
PCF 6%
Nationalists 4%
FN 4%
EXG 1%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Corse

Look at the runoff results: more indicative

(yay, boasting my Wikipedia masterpieces).

Rocca Serra/Santini administration:

Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 46%

37% favour a left-right centralist alliance, 35% favour a left-nationalist alliance, 25% favour a right-nationalist alliance

Obviously, a lot depend on the post-election alliances (the 'third round'), especially with the left's shenanigans. Zuccarelli seems to have shat on his past principles and is now open to a deal with the PNC (moderate autonomists-support the Greenies nationally) for forming a coalition, not sure if he wants to work with his sworn enemy Giacobbi. Renucci will also be a bigger fact in 2010 than in 2004 it seems, as will the regionalists (21% - not far from the Greens' result in the Euros - which is quite high and shows a general upswing for the Corsican regionalists). Unlike in 2004, the threshold for the runoff will be 7% (and not 5%), so the PCF falls short. Overall, I think I'd be putting cash on a left-wing gain in Corse. lol.


But, nobody cares, the Most Important Region has a poll. STOP THE PRESSES BRING OUT THE CHILDREN

Ile-de-France (Ifop for DLR)

Notoriety highlights: the surprising is that Duflot has 62% not knowing her... the breakdowns of notoriety are also interesting (young, workers, poorer suburban really don't know her)

NC-Santini list:

UMP 30%
PS 19%
Greens 15%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
FN 6.5%
NC 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

UMP-NC common list:

UMP 32.5% (+2.5)
PS 19%
Greens 16% (+1)
MoDem 10% (+2)
PCF-PG 7%
FN 7% (+0.5)
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#.C3.8Ele-de-France

RUNOFF POLLS DUMBASS

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Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...

Well, you know the PS. But the left is doing extremely well.

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I also note the strong showing of the FN here: up quite a bit from the FN's 4-5% showing in IdF here in the Euros, probably a bit of the right-wing discontent vote showing up after the EPAD affair, Mitterrand affair.

The runoff will be bad for the right, it will probably lose Corse, and it will maybe only gain Champagne-Ardenne and maybe PdL (and Languedoc-Roussillon, lol, if the left is divided even in the runoff). If it continues to go sour for the right, then PdL and Languedoc-Roussillon probably go out of reach, Champagne-Ardenne gets harder... imagine if France was red once again except Alsace (no Corse)!?

Anyways, France is really screwed over in all ways.

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UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

As I would have thought. The EPAD affair seems to hurt the right more than it helps the left, thus the dramatic rise for the FN. Once the whole thing settle down a bit, since people forget these awful things quickly (see: CDPQ in Quebec. People massively pissed at Charest, went all OMG LIBERALS SUCK RESIGN, now the Liberals are comfortably ahead again), I think we'll see the FN go back down to 6-7% and the UMP staying at 30-31%.

I think the Green effect is slowly, slowly fading. Maybe. But I said that in July, August, September, October.

Also, testing the AEI is kinda dumb since I'm not sure that thing will carry through since the main player, Waechter's MEI has concluded a deal with the Greenies in Alsace where MEI-AEI is still a major player in the ecolo field. On a side note, the Green-MEI deal in Alsace helps the Greenies a sh**tload there. Maybe one of their best regions, if not the best (especially if Duflot keeps underperforming, imo, in IDF). And I don't think the AEI will be worth much in other regions anyways, unless there's some major list leader that excites people.

also hidden in that poll is a PACA poll, which now test the Bompard League and Mariani as the UMP top-candidate.

Vauzelle (PS) 31%
Mariani (UMP) 24%
Wisniewski (Greens) 13%
Le Pen (FN) 12%
de Peretti (MoDem) 7%
Miran (MEI) 5%
Coppola (PCF-PG) 4%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Joshua (NPA) 1%
Bompard (LS) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 50%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 13%

Vauzelle (PS) 56%
Mariani (UMP) 44%

2004: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Provence-Alpes-C.C3.B4te_d.27Azur

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Also, the UMP is shooting itself in the foot in Bretagne again. In the primaries, which are turning out to be even more of a joke everyday, Jacques Le Guen, a Villepiniste UMP deputy from the Finistère was the only candidate and pretty much won by default. I said back then that some were talking of the eventuality of the Kremlin dropping him in favour in Bernadette Malgorn, a former regional prefect (who hated freedom and is a HP). That sh**t has come up again, and most of the local structures of the UMP have turned to supporting that witch because they want the favours of the Kremlin, a spot on her list etc. It seems likely that the UMP will now give the top spot on the list to Malgorn, but the final deadline seems to be November 28 (there's a meeting in Paris of the UMP's commission on candidacies/pre-selections on November 2). Anyways, this is all some useless distraction since the UMP will lose in a landslide and also I myself am supporting Jean Yves Le Drian over whichever HP the UMP chooses.

Also, the UMP candidate in Auvergne is Alain Marleix, Thierry Mariani in PACA and obviously Philippe Richert in Alsace. Louis Molinié in Guadeloupe, Chantal Maignan in Martinique and Léon Bertrand in Guyane. Didier Robert in Reunion.

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Race ratings:



Notes:

Alsace: The Greenies cited an internal with some rather low UMP numbers (and low Green numbers too, mind you). If all sh**t hits the fan, then I fear to imagine what happens here.
Basse-Normandie: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Champagne-Ardenne: I was extremely optimistic for the UMP here, but there haven't been any polls so we could be surprised. Though I doubt it could really go any lower than tossup.
IDF: I don't put much stock into UMP internals showing Pecresse almost tied with Huchon and ahead of Duflot, nor do I think Sarkozy's strategy of Cabinet Minister-packing is a good idea because being a cabinet minister isn't an advantage and he/she's changing the race into a referendum on Sarkozy which isn't good for the right.
Languedoc-Roussillon: Frêche doing slightly better in polls, Couderc much worse. Probably the effects of EPAD.
PACA: Mariani is an awful candidate. Might be too generous, but that OpinionWay poll here was absolute sh**t for the right.
Pays de Loire: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Rhone-Alpes: Nothing will happen.

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And Corse is tossup because Corse is always tossup?

Corse is tossup, aside for the reasons I already explained, because the outcome will be decided in the so-called third round.

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Kinda unrelated, but something interesting I noticed. It also applies to the UMP's hopes in Lorraine (some in the UMP say they might regain it).

Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   61 440    25,52

Meurthe-et-Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   45 660    25,19

The Gandrange effect!