Which Possible Republican Canidate Has the best Chance against Obama? (user search)
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  Which Possible Republican Canidate Has the best Chance against Obama? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which Possible Republican Canidate has the best chance of winning against Obama?
#1
Tim Pawlenty
 
#2
Sarah Palin
 
#3
Mitt Romney
 
#4
Rick Santorum
 
#5
Eric Cantor
 
#6
Haley Barbour
 
#7
Newt Gingrich
 
#8
Rudy Giuliani
 
#9
Mike Huckabee
 
#10
Bobby Jindal
 
#11
Other (Please Name)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 50

Author Topic: Which Possible Republican Canidate Has the best Chance against Obama?  (Read 10597 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
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Posts: 26,839
United States


« on: September 02, 2009, 05:35:55 AM »

AZ, believe me a Palin nomination is exactly what us liberals want to see Smiley
Of course you do - you have bought into the funded attacks.  So you go about your days wistfully hoping that Sarah Palin will be nominated until she defeats you, the anointed one, your party and your filthy policies.


What is best for this country? That Barack Obama win in a gigantic landslide? The last three Presidents who won re-election by landslides had bad second terms. Reagan may not be particularly relevant because of Alzheimer's. Nixon had Watergate blow up on him, and LBJ let the Vietnam War spiral into a disaster. Eisenhower didn't let that happen, but that says much about Eisenhower.

Sarah Palin has demonstrated her extreme incompetence and her demagogic streak, both dangerous in what can be a very dangerous time. Her "Real America" stuff polarized America into places sympathetic to her (her "Real America") and alienated people in  places that she swiped at for being not-so-real Someone can take a county map of votes and see that most counties went for McCain... but look at populations, and places with the largest population densities went for Obama. McCain/Palin lost Suburbia badly -- probably because they had obsolete views of what suburbia is like. (It's genuinely urban, folks -- maybe without the extreme poverty of some urban slums, but it has big needs and a need for big, expensive government to solve lots of problems. Economic uncertainty and severe inequality of income have become menaces to suburban standards of comfort).

If you are a conservative, then the best thing that can happen is that Obama run scared in 2012 -- whether he wins or loses. You might have little control over things that cause him to win or lose (the economy, foreign affairs) -- but the best thing that can happen is that he has to do some genuine campaigning in places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida so that he can clarify his positions and tell us what he can promise in a second term.   You don't want him picking off Texas or Tennessee.

You want the GOP to become a viable Party again, one that offers a valid alternative once the Democrats get stale. You don't want your Party to become one of limited support by region. You want it to develop a new coalition capable of winning. That means that your faction might want need to make some compromises. It's a tough choice, but you might have to sacrifice some contentment with Party ideology to get broader support in 2014 through 2020 when the Democrats achieve all that they can and start running out of ideas.     

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Sarah Palin has demonstrated her incompetence as a leader. She has bailed out of a Governorship. Michelle Bachmann has demonstrated that she is a potential Joseph R. McCarthy. I'm not going to pretend that Communism was no political threat in the 1950s and that the US had to defeat the Commie efforts to subvert its own political life as well as that of its allies... but remember a big difference between McCarthy and Nixon: Nixon actually unmasked Alger Hiss, and McCarthy had nothing more than a list of "security risks" (homosexuals, alcoholics, gamblers on credit, and people with relatives behind the Iron Curtain). The last thing that we need in this country is political witch-hunts that ruin lives unjustly and push people into radical causes.
 
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Spoken like a supporter of George Wallace in the summer of 1968. I don't get the "Lion King" reference: if anything, the hyenas are made to look like fascists, and Scar is made to seem like a Quisling. 
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,839
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2009, 08:46:18 AM »

You can forget most of the others except as those who will show themselves picking up a few votes early and then 'suspending' campaigns that never get revived. It will be Huckabee versus Romney. I'm not going to predict the results of the struggle for the nomination... but I can predict how  the two will do in the Presidential election.

Huckabee clearly has the higher floor for electoral votes. He can absolutely assure the Inner Arc of Clinton-but-not-Obama states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Romney might be weaker in. Political culture matters greatly, and those states may block an Obama landslide that surpasses the level of Eisenhower in 1956.   He will surely win MS, AL, and OK -- and probably has a better chance to win Texas. Some other states that seem to never vote Democratic will vote for both.

He also has a lower ceiling. He will do even worse than McCain did in the northeastern quadrant of the US because he is so clearly a regional candidate (as McCain wasn't). Obama has to be an absolute disaster to lose anything in the 1992-2008 Blue Firewall, and Huckabee has no particular draw for Indiana, Ohio, or Virginia. The Republicans must absolutely win all three to win the Presidency in 2008. Romney has a better chance of winning those. Although Huckabee will do well in southern Missouri, he won't do any better in Greater St. Louis or or Greater Kansas City. Does Huckabee have a viable chance in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico,  or even Arizona?

That's before I even start to talk about Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Minnesota...

Romney, who is at least culturally a Yankee, could still lose big in the South should Obama restyle himself as a Clinton-like populist. But at the least he will cut into some of the double-digit margins by which Obama won in the northeastern quadrant of the US and the West Coast.  Such is absolutely necessary for a GOP win of the Presidency in 2012; if he can force Obama to campaign defensively in places like Iowa, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Connecticut, then Romney can pick off some states that Obama won -- like Virginia, North Carolina,  Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado while keeping such states as Missouri, Montana, and Arizona from slipping away.

Thune? I think that he will be a tempting choice as a VP candidate. He can solidify some electoral votes that the GOP absolutely must win (the Dakotas and NE-01) maybe pick off NE-02 (which isn't that far from South Dakota), perhaps solidify a GOP hold of Montana, and put Minnesota and Iowa at risk for Obama.. if things go well. Such is geography. Is he a good idea? We don't know him well. He barely won election to the Senate in a strongly R-leaning state.

It's all moot, of course, if Obama...

1. has a healthy economy

2. has no scandals

3. has no foreign-policy disasters

4. has any noteworthy successes in legislation...

in which case the GOP nominee is most likely someone who appears in history books as the "other guy" in the 2012 election.
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