Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Sam Spade]

Didn't that district even vote for McCain? Don't see how that could be safe D.

Yes.  I'm just giving you the conventional wisdom, which of course, is also based on the 3-1 Dem registration advantage and the fact that Democrats have held seats in this area since rocks cooled.

[Sam Spade]

Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

[Sam Spade]

Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...

The whole, relatively fresh horror of that experience is part of the reason why I can never put any faith or confidence in BRTD's hope, though national numbers would so suggest otherwise. 

After all, the Independent Democratic Conference is still alive and well, and working with Republicans, and waiting to exact tribute from whoever wants control if the Republicans fall to 31 or under again.  And isn't Mr. Incompetent John Sampson still in control of the Democrats?  And isn't Ruben Diaz still around, looking to cause any trouble he can?

[Sam Spade]

Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?

I understand it is basically carved up, the Dem parts given to neighboring Dem incumbents, some of the Republican parts used to shore up the other remaining Republican in Brooklyn, and the Orthodox parts used to create what Sam is calling "the NY Jew seat". Of course that new seat probably votes Republican and even though it might not I'd honestly rather have a "normal" Republican than someone like Dov Hikind.

Pretty much right on what happened - even though a little bit of it goes to try and make Addabo a bit more marginal.  Storobin has said that he will run in the new seat.  So has Fidler, though that may well be a bluff after this result.