Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[rbt48]

Has anyone seen any election returns on these special elections tonight?
March 1, 2011
Florida
Florida Senate District 33   
Democratic Candidate: Oscar Braynon
Republican Candidate: Joe Celestin 
 
Mississippi
Mississippi Senate District 12   
Gwendolyn McClure
Dorothy Walls
Derrick Simmons
Note: In Mississippi special elections, no party ID appears on the ballot (all are Democrats). 

Maine
Maine House District 11   
Democratic Candidate: Deanna House 
Republican Candidate: Beth Turner
Phillip Merletti (Write-In) 
 

[rbt48]

Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Democrats hold House of Representatives District 98
Antonio '2 Shay' Parkinson - D 3,810
Write-In (Artie Smith) -  78

[rbt48]

How was SD-18 going to be close? It was Diane Black's seat in the Nashville suburbs.

Well, recall that the CD she won had been in Democratic hands since the Civil War.  Rural areas of middle and western Tennessee had certainly trended Republican in Presidential elections starting in 2000 and especially in 2008, but the strength of Republicans further down the ballot and at the county level was lacking.  

I can't recall where I read that this race was supposed to be close, but the fact that the Republican won by better than 2 to 1 in a more rural (ok, part suburban) part of middle Tennessee is, I believe, noteworthy.  It is consistent with the trend toward voting Republican down the ballot to county races across much of the rural south.

[rbt48]

No surprise in LA State House special election tonight with two Republicans contesting the District 46 seat. 
"Mike Pete" Huval (R) 57.98% 4338
Craig Prosper (R) 42.02% 3144

The House is now 46D, 54R, 4I, 1 vacant.
http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf

[rbt48]

A close race in Louisiana for the vacant State House District 47 seat -
40 of 47 precincts reporting:
Linda Hardee (R)   49.67%   3051
"Bob" Hensgens (R)   50.33%   3092

[rbt48]

Hensgens lead grows to 162 votes.

42 of 47 precincts reporting

Linda Hardee (R)   48.73%   3111
"Bob" Hensgens (R)   51.27%   3273

[rbt48]

Final returns have Hensgens winning by 312 votes, 52.35 to 47.65%.

[rbt48]

The Democrat Doyle winning in District 94 with 26 of 27 precincts reporting:

Doyle , Steve Dem 8,105 54%

Lautz , John GOP 7,021 46%

D pick-up of one.  Wisconsin State House now 59R, 38D, 1I, 1V.

[rbt48]

Actually, I'm curious to know what the local party strength is like in the Utica district. It seems like it should be one that Republicans would do well in (Obama only won it 50-49), but the prior incumbent had little problem holding the seat over the past decade.

Edit: More registered Democrats than Republicans. Kind of odd for upstate New York.

Not that odd for an economic basket case area like Utica. 

I have to wonder if the R-C candidate can win AD 144.

[rbt48]

Republican Keiko Orrall won the 12th Bristol special election here in Massachusetts tonight. It's a GOP pickup.

Keiko Orrall (R)  2,135
Roger Brunelle (D)  1,762

This is awesome news.  Only forty eight more seats to gain and the GOP takes control of the lower house.

[rbt48]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

True:  none did.  The NJ Assembly did go from 47D, 33R to 48D, 32R.  In Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana, the Democrats lost seats across the board.  They lost the Mississippi House and also are now on the losing end of a tie in the Virginia Senate (as the Lt Gov has vowed to break all ties for organizing the chamber in the GOP's favor).

[rbt48]

It looks like Dickie Drake (that name would not fly too well in much of the country, I'd guess) will replace his late brother Owen in the Alabama H of R for District 45.
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2011/11/unofficial_results_show_drake.html

He is leading Paige Parnell, a former Miss Alabama, about 55 to 45%.

[rbt48]

That's basically a lot closer than I expected.

For who? The conventional wisdom was safe D, and given Dem bloodletting over the past couple of days, obviously they held to that. Of course with the NY State Senate Dems, nothing is ever safe D, so who knows.

I personally suspected it would be close for a number of reasons.

Whatever the reasons, if Storobin wins, the Senate goes to 33R, 29D.

[rbt48]

Oklahoma House District 71 stays Republican by one vote in a recount:  http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=11&articleid=20120411_11_0_Arecou120758

[rbt48]

Might as well get this over with: Dems picked up my seat (169th), 54% - 46%. Disappointing for me on a personal level as well. They failed to nab the Lehigh Valley seat though.

How could this have occurred?  Was there a weak GOP candidate, high turnout for a key Democratic primary, a strong Democratic candidate?  Is this an indicator of trouble for the GOP statewide in November?