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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
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Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 135477 times)
People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #350 on: May 12, 2010, 08:21:29 am »
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Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

The southern tip was stunningly Republican in this election.

In Wrentham, Ross won 86% of the vote, 1897 - 308. Eighty-six percent.

Ross got 81.2% in Plainville, 78.6% in North Attleboro, and 77.9% in Norfolk.

Brown only got 73.9% or something in Wrentham.
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« Reply #351 on: May 12, 2010, 10:14:19 am »

Brown only got 73.9% or something in Wrentham.

Lower turnout for state legislature special vs. Senate special, plus the nature of what's passed at a state level, means parochial connections count for even more than usual.
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« Reply #352 on: May 13, 2010, 08:44:51 am »
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The June 22 special for CA SD-15 (Maldonado's seat) has four candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent. Due the the open primary law, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a general election in August... with the same four candidates.
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« Reply #353 on: May 13, 2010, 09:06:09 am »
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The June 22 special for CA SD-15 (Maldonado's seat) has four candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent. Due the the open primary law, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a general election in August... with the same four candidates.

I'll give everyone a heads up. Smiley
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« Reply #354 on: May 13, 2010, 09:38:44 am »
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Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1
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« Reply #355 on: May 13, 2010, 04:07:06 pm »
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Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

The article breathlessly declares it a "highly politicized race."  Such is the nature of politics.
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« Reply #356 on: May 13, 2010, 08:58:29 pm »
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Monterey County being a VRA county, the courts can and have stayed the election.
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« Reply #357 on: May 13, 2010, 09:05:18 pm »
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Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

The article breathlessly declares it a "highly politicized race."  Such is the nature of politics.

I wonder when the last time a contested partisan election hasn't been politicized.
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« Reply #358 on: May 15, 2010, 06:40:37 pm »
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Probably when Tom Osborne ran for Congress from Nebraska CD-3 in 2004.  His 2002 and 2000 races were the only two other instances that I can think of.

The thing is, he is pretty much to a living "saint" in Nebraska, added to the reality that CD-3 is probably 70% Republican, so it is a unique set of circumstances.
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« Reply #359 on: May 16, 2010, 08:14:15 am »
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Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

If the legislature had confirmed Maldonado a week earlier, the special primary could have been held on June 8, the same day as the statewide primary.  Had Schwarzenegger waited 9 days to issue his proclamation, it would have been 180 days from November 2, and the special general could have been held then, though the special primary would still have been in the Summer (August 31).

Given all the squawking about the dates, it is pretty clear that the Democrat boys and girls at Sacramento Junior High were playing a game to keep SD 15 from being represented during the budget negotiations, and Schwarzenegger upset their plan.

Monterey County is covered by Section 5 of the VRA because in 1968 it had a voting test, and less than 50% of the adult population voted in the general election.  California until 1972 had a literacy test (in English).  But the main reason that it had less than 50% turnout in 1968 was because of Fort Ord.

As late as 1990, Fort Ord had 3% turnout, while for the rest of the county it was 40%.  During redistricting plans were made on including Fort Ord (and also Soledad Prison) in minority supervisor districts because they would bump up the total population and the minority percentage, while not actually having many voters.  The DOD encouraged military to vote in their home residences.  Fort Ord was BRAC'ed in 1994.

Because Monterey is covered by Section 5, they are quite experienced in filing with the DOJ.  The day after the governor's proclamation the county election head called the DOJ, and made their first formal filing within the week, and a supplemental filing a week later.

The lawsuit was filed after Monterey County had filed for preclearance on a expedited basis.  Monterey County has said that they wouldn't object to an injunction because they are really concerned that voters might be disenfranchised.  So some other citizens have intervened with defendants.  The State of California (the other defendant) pointed out that under the 11th Amendment that the federal court could not enjoin California from conducting the election, so now the plaintiffs have sought to add Governor Schwarzenegger as a defendant, though it would have made more sense to name Debra Bowen, except she is a Democrat.

So far the court has issued a temporary restraining order from sending out absentee ballots.  After the court's order, Monterey County filed that they had received preclearance from the DOJ for the early election.  They had a supplemental filing where they asked for preclearance for other changes, including moving two polling locations, and also some changes related to absentee ballot procedures, such as putting the voter's pamphlet and ballot in the same envelope, and encouraging overseas voters to have an e-mail address on file so that ballots may be sent by e-mail (then returned by fax).  If the court doesn't dissolve the TRO, it will be the lawsuit that caused the delay that prevented the election from being held.

Before the gubernatorial recall election in 2003, there was similar litigation.  A couple of propositions had been moved from the March 2004 primary to the October 2003 statewide election.  The court had blocked sending of absentee ballots, but then preclearance from the DOJ was received, and the election went on.

Merced County is also a covered jurisdiction under Section 5.  In their case, they had 49.6% participation in 1972, which may have been due to the Census Bureau's estimate assuming that all population growth between 1970 and 1972 were citizens.  And like Monterey County, it had a military base (Castle AFB) that was BRAC'ed in the 1990s.  Merced County has spent $1 million in VRA pre-clearance over the past decade, and has recently filed for a bailout.
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« Reply #360 on: May 19, 2010, 07:24:59 am »
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Lost in the hoopla last night were three special elections in Pennsylvania. Probably because they were all safe seats. Results:

HD-20 - Allegheny

Adam Ravenstahl (D) - 5,645 (62.8%)
Alex Dubart (R) - 2,479 (27.6%)
Daryl Putman (L) - 864 (9.6%)

HD-138 - Northampton

Marcia Hahn (R) - 4,055 (77.8%)
Cory Miller (D) - 1,158 (22.2%)

HD-147 - Montgomery

Marcy Toepel (R) - 3,785 (66.1%)
Robert Dodge (D) - 1,940 (33.9%)

Yes, that is Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's brother. Gotta start that dynasty.
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« Reply #361 on: May 21, 2010, 05:11:36 am »
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David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.
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« Reply #362 on: May 24, 2010, 07:53:08 am »
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I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.
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« Reply #363 on: May 24, 2010, 07:54:29 am »

I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.
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« Reply #364 on: May 24, 2010, 09:11:49 am »
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I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.
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« Reply #365 on: May 24, 2010, 09:27:44 am »
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I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.

Enjoy it while you can (this is still Massachusetts Tongue )
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People's Speaker North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #366 on: May 24, 2010, 04:02:23 pm »
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I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

The domino effect from Scott Brown's win pushing into summer special elections is amusing, even if it's not uncommon.

I am sure the MA GOP also enjoys hearing the words "Safe Republican" to describe both a state senate seat and a State Rep seat. Probably a rare occurance for an open seat since most are Safe Democratic or beyond.

Enjoy it while you can (this is still Massachusetts Tongue )

No, Srsly? I thought it was Alabama. Tongue
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« Reply #367 on: May 30, 2010, 03:52:32 pm »
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There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...

Moreno's money must have trumped the racial makeup of the district, as she won the runoff last night, 56-44.
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« Reply #368 on: June 02, 2010, 10:57:16 am »
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« Reply #369 on: June 05, 2010, 04:44:38 pm »
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Well, my boyfriend voted for Laird today. And then got a push poll against him... said that Laird was being endorsed or something by special interests, and if a Republican gets attacked regarding offshore drilling, if that's a fair or not. They didn't give a name... just said they were independent.
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« Reply #370 on: June 05, 2010, 05:05:29 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.
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« Reply #371 on: June 05, 2010, 06:21:14 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 
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« Reply #372 on: June 05, 2010, 06:45:48 pm »
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I can't say, personally. I mean Laird was the mayor of Santa Cruz and he's a good candidate for the area, so obviously his support is gonna be really high down there compared to the rest of the district.
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« Reply #373 on: June 05, 2010, 06:50:27 pm »
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I can't say, personally. I mean Laird was the mayor of Santa Cruz and he's a good candidate for the area, so obviously his support is gonna be really high down there compared to the rest of the district.

I expect Laird to run up the score in Santa Cruz and Santa Clara and do well in Monterey, while his opponent will probably win big in San Luis Obispo, which he represents in the Assembly and is about a third of the district. 
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« Reply #374 on: June 05, 2010, 07:04:36 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.
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