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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
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Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 135456 times)
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #375 on: June 05, 2010, 07:37:45 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #376 on: June 06, 2010, 11:55:30 am »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 

So, who won?
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Meeker
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« Reply #377 on: June 06, 2010, 01:07:42 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 

So, who won?

I believe the election is Tuesday.
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Holmes
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« Reply #378 on: June 06, 2010, 01:09:09 pm »
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It's the 22nd.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #379 on: June 06, 2010, 02:27:22 pm »
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Silly me.  There have been two many elections over the weekend lately.  Cheesy
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #380 on: June 07, 2010, 06:34:28 pm »
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The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #381 on: June 07, 2010, 07:51:31 pm »
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The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #382 on: June 07, 2010, 09:14:49 pm »
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The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.

That really doesn't mean much; Obama overperformed in a lot of suburban districts that are otherwise solidly Republican.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #383 on: June 08, 2010, 01:07:19 am »
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The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.

That really doesn't mean much; Obama overperformed in a lot of suburban districts that are otherwise solidly Republican.

That is true, but in November, Democrats lost some districts Obama carried heavily and even some that John Kerry won and in some cases even Steve Shannon and Jody Wagner won like AD-86, AD-51, the Vanderhye seat and a few others.  Democrats had no excuse to lose these as there werent even coattails for Republicans here. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #384 on: June 08, 2010, 06:10:11 am »
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The only seat the Republicans picked up that didn't go McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli was HD-34, and that was only because Shannon tied it 50-50. As for the 86th, Stevens Miller wasn't that great of a candidate; he didn't raise much money and was dependent on the state party to do the heavy lifting for him.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #385 on: June 08, 2010, 12:49:44 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 
Schwarzenegger carried the district by 30.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #386 on: June 08, 2010, 02:36:36 pm »
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I've seen a couple of Laird signs here.

Who does it look like will win here?  Laird should win since this district is very Democratic and he represented half of the district for many years until 2008 in the State Assembly.  However, Democrats have been doing awful in winnable special elections lately. 

I don't see the district as being very Democratic (if it were so Democratic, perhaps Abel would have had an opponent), and I'm not sure to what extent state legislative special elections in Louisiana or wherever impact the election results here. Tht said, I haven't been along the coast much south of Monterey since I was 7. Laird will clean house in the places I'm familiar with.

The district is certainly very Democratic.  Obama won here by 20 points and even John Kerry won it by seven points. 
Schwarzenegger carried the district by 30.


Schwarzanegger carried almost every district. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #387 on: June 08, 2010, 03:27:35 pm »
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I think his point may have been 'by 30'.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #388 on: June 10, 2010, 10:53:00 am »
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David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

45.02% He led in McLennan County by a 62:24 on 8.6% turnout.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

36.55% He led in Hood County with 68:15 on a 16.0% turnout.

The runoff is set for June 22.

Legal experts express doubts about validity of ruling on state Senate candidate's eligibility

An article in the Waco newspaper that indirectly questions Birdwell's eligibility.

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #389 on: June 14, 2010, 06:22:37 am »
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The two Virginia specials are tomorrow, as well as one in Massachusetts that doesn't have a Republican running. My guess for the Virginia ones are about a 60% win for the Republican in HD-26 and about a 70% win for the Republican in HD-27.
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« Reply #390 on: June 15, 2010, 04:05:51 pm »
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So I'm at Laird's Santa Clara County office doing clerical work.
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The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #391 on: June 15, 2010, 06:38:53 pm »
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Well, Chesterfield County certainly counts votes quickly. It's all in, 73-27 for the Republican. Still nothing from the 26th.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #392 on: June 15, 2010, 06:49:50 pm »
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Part of the 26th is in, and Democrat Kai Degner barely won Harrisonburg 48-47. Nice try, anyway.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #393 on: June 15, 2010, 06:55:37 pm »
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Yeah, Republican Tony Wilt is winning Rockingham 81-16. Ouch.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #394 on: June 20, 2010, 10:07:31 am »
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Tuesday brings us the primary for the California SD-15 seat formerly occupied by Maldonado. Despite being a primary, there's only one candidate from each of four parties on the ballot. In order to win, someone has to get a majority of the vote, otherwise there's a runoff with the same four people in August. It seems rather silly to me.

It looks like Democrat John Laird has the fundraising edge; he's spent $756k, as opposed to Republican Sam Blakeslee, who has spent $435k. For a California State Senate seat, that seems pretty cheap; there were State House races in Virginia that involved more money than that last year.
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Holmes
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« Reply #395 on: June 22, 2010, 10:49:41 pm »
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http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/special/1559.htm

27% in and Blakeslee is up 9%. For what it's worth, it seems Santa Cruz is the only county that hasn't reported anything yet, just its early votes. As expected, Blakeslee is winning San Luis and Santa Barbara big, and Laird is winning Monterey and Santa Cruz big. Santa Clara is pretty much tied and will probably decide it... but I bet there'll be a runoff, barely.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #396 on: June 22, 2010, 11:10:46 pm »
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http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/special/1559.htm

27% in and Blakeslee is up 9%. For what it's worth, it seems Santa Cruz is the only county that hasn't reported anything yet, just its early votes. As expected, Blakeslee is winning San Luis and Santa Barbara big, and Laird is winning Monterey and Santa Cruz big. Santa Clara is pretty much tied and will probably decide it... but I bet there'll be a runoff, barely.

If Laird is to win the runoff, he is going to have to flip Santa Clara in his favor.  He should be able to do that.  Its very liberal and Obama won 63% there.
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Holmes
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« Reply #397 on: June 22, 2010, 11:22:43 pm »
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Just a tiny amount of San Jose is in the district, though. You can't extrapolate the 2008 results and make a prediction on tonight's showing from them.
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« Reply #398 on: June 22, 2010, 11:24:32 pm »
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That seat looks rather gerrymandered.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #399 on: June 22, 2010, 11:25:47 pm »
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Senate District 22 - Texas.  Special election runoff for the remainder of the 2007-2011 term.

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district.  

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.

CountyBirdwell
Sibley
Total
Percent
Bosque
581
377
958
61%
Coryell
572
476
1,048
55%
Ellis
1,548
670
2,218
70%
Falls
131
275
406
32%
Hill
545
327
872
63%
Hood
3,274
343
3,617
91%
Johnson
2,313
290
2,603
89%
McLennan
4,263
7,313
11,576
37%
Navarro
736
233
969
76%
Somervell
235
29
264
89%





Total
14,198
10,330
24,531
58%

McLennan County (Waco) is around 35% of the district and managed to get 47% of the vote, but with only tepid (63%) support for the hometown boy.  The Fort Worth suburbs managed much higher support, and Birdwell also won the counties in between.

The turnout in Ellis and Johnson was pretty low - combined they have more population than McLennan combined.  Johnson in particular took a low key approach, consolidating everything into 5 precincts, while McLennan had 93.

There is a newspaper report that Kip Averitt, who triggered the special election by resigning the seat, is considering staying in the race for the full term.

Averitt had filed in the primary for the full term (2011-2013, shortened to 2 years due to redistricting), and outsider Darren Yancy had filed against him in the Republican primary.  No Democrats filed.

Averitt's doctor advised him not to run, and he initially was going to withdraw from the primary.  But that would have meant that Yancy, who was not from Waco, would win the primary and general election by default.  So Averitt remained in the race, but did not campaign, and was nominated in the March Primary for the 2011-2013 term.

If a nominee withdraws, he ordinarily can't be replaced.  But if he is the only nominee chosen at a primary, all parties can name a new nominee.

After he was nominated, Averitt announced his resignation from the final year of his 2007-2011 term, which triggered the special election (and runoff).  Former senator David Sibley (from Waco) announced he was running.  A Democrat and Yancy ran.  But Brian Birdwell also entered the race.  If it had been Sibley vs. the Democrat and Yancy, Sibley would have easily won, and then the county chairs would have nominated him for the full term.  The Democrats might have passed, simply because the district overlaps much of Chet Edwards congressional district.

But now that the voters have chosen Birdwell, the county chairs might be reluctant to nominate Sibley for the full term.  They could, because it is one county, one vote.

Averitt is now considering not withdrawing.  So he will have (1) filed for renomination; (2) announced that wasn't going to run; (3) announcing that he wasn't going to formally withdraw from the primary, which would permit his replacement if he was nominated; (4) nof campaigning before the primary, but being nominated; (5) announced his resignation from the current term, which triggered a special election; and (6) announced that he is reconsidering not withdrawing from his nomination.
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