Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was a runoff for the Mississippi Senate seat that had the first round back in February, which the Democrat won easily:

Albert Butler – 3,781
Jimmy Strong – 2,496

No party labels on the ballot, but Butler was the Dem, Strong was the Rep.

Also, Republicans held a House seat in New Hampshire. Yawn.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tonight is the special for Hiram Monseratte's seat. He's running as an independent to try and get it back.

Seriously? I haven't been paying enough attention. Doesn't he know the Senate would just expel him again?

Yeah, he's currently getting his ass handed to him by Jose Peralta. 1/3 of the precincts are in and Peralta is up 60-34.

There is no limit to his desperate attempts to cling onto his political career, though -- he's apparently considering a run for Peralta's Assembly seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Final result:

Jose Peralta (D) - 9,803 (65.4%)
Hiram Monserrate (I) - 4,098 (27.3%)
Robert Beltrani (R) - 1,087 (7.3%)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Has it really been so long since the last special? Well, there are a few tomorrow:

California AD-43 - Democratic incumbent elected to the LA City Council. Three Dems and one R running; likely an easy Dem hold, but it's unclear whether one candidate will win a majority in the first round.

California SD-37 - Republican incumbent appointed to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors; it's fairly Republican, so it shouldn't be too hard to hold. It will probably go to a second round, though, with 6 major-party candidates running.

Florida HD-4 - This one's on the panhandle, so it should be an easy Republican hold, especially since some attorney spent $300k to win the Republican primary.

Also, two primaries in Mass:

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) - It's SCOTT BROWN's Senate seat! Primary for the Democratic nomination; either physician Peter Smulowitz and State Rep. Lida Harkins will win the chance to face off against Republican State Rep. Richard Ross in May.

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) - Six Democrats are running in this primary, which is going to be the deciding election, as no Republican has filed. Sal DiDomineco, the previous incumbent's Chief of Staff seems to be the favorite here. Shame, I would've gone with Denise Simmons, the black lesbian mayor of Cambridge.

You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Results from last night:

CA AD-43:

Mike Gatto (D) - 10,584 (32.3%)
Sunder Ramani (R) - 10,403 (31.8%)
Nayiri Nahabedian (D) - 7,298 (22.3%)
Chahe Keuroghelian (D) - 4,444 (13.6%)

CA SD-37:

Bill Emmerson (R) - 36,507 (41.6%)
Russ Bogh (R) - 19,247 (21.9%)
Justin Blake (D) - 12,253 (14.0%)
Anna Nevenic (D) - 7,524 (8.6%)
Arthur Bravo Guerrero (D) - 6,283 (7.2%)
Matt Monica (AI) - 3,884 (4.4%)
David W. Peters (R) - 2,036 (2.3%)

FL HD-4:

Matt Gaetz (R) - 10,118 (66.0%)
Jan Fernald (D) - 5,212 (34.0%)

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary:

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) D primary (no actual numbers):

Sal DiDomenico (D) – 30%
Tim Flaherty (D) -  29%
Denise Simmons (D) – 20%
Mike Albano (D) – 10%
Dennis Benzan (D) – 8%
Dan Hill (D) – 1%

Flaherty is refusing to concede, contending that there were "voting irregularities".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bob McDonnell appointed a couple Delegates to posts in his administration, so there are two special elections slated for June 15 (yes, the week after the primary -- Virginia apparently can't hold two different elections on the same day), HD-26 and 27. Both are Republican seats and will likely stay Republican.

HD-26 is about 50/50 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, and is a very Republican district (Obama got 44% there, but that was because he overperformed there due to the presence of JMU). Democrats actually got a good candidate, the mayor of Harrisonburg, but I can't see a Democrat winning there. The last time the seat was open, in 2005, the Democrat lost 54-46, but that was a better environment for Dems.

HD-27 would be more interesting in a better environment for the Democrats. It's a Republican-leaning district, but it's in the suburbs of Richmond that have been drifting towards the Democrats somewhat. However, the Dems don't even have a candidate yet, so it may go uncontested.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tomorrow is the special election for Scott Brown's state senate seat.

Also, there are three specials in Georgia tomorrow, but none look to be particularly interesting.

Are they all safe Dem or safe GOP seats?

HD-12 and SD-49 are Republican seats, while SD-42 is a Democratic seat.

HD-12 is the only one with both parties contesting; 2 Rs and 1 D. SD-49 is 2 Rs and a Libertarian. SD-42 is 2 Ds, a Libertarian, and an Independent.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently Jimmy Carter's grandson is running for the SD-42 seat.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Georgia specials did, indeed, turn out boring: the two Republican districts are being won by one of the two Republicans with around 80% of the vote, while Jason Carter is cruising to a 67% victory.

No numbers from Massachusetts, but I'm hearing the Dem got slaughtered.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The June 22 special for CA SD-15 (Maldonado's seat) has four candidates: a Democrat, a Republican, a Libertarian and an Independent. Due the the open primary law, if nobody wins a majority, there will be a general election in August... with the same four candidates.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently there's been a lawsuit filed to stay the election:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breaking-news/ci_15071849?nclick_check=1

The article breathlessly declares it a "highly politicized race."  Such is the nature of politics.

I wonder when the last time a contested partisan election hasn't been politicized.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Lost in the hoopla last night were three special elections in Pennsylvania. Probably because they were all safe seats. Results:

HD-20 - Allegheny

Adam Ravenstahl (D) - 5,645 (62.8%)
Alex Dubart (R) - 2,479 (27.6%)
Daryl Putman (L) - 864 (9.6%)

HD-138 - Northampton

Marcia Hahn (R) - 4,055 (77.8%)
Cory Miller (D) - 1,158 (22.2%)

HD-147 - Montgomery

Marcy Toepel (R) - 3,785 (66.1%)
Robert Dodge (D) - 1,940 (33.9%)

Yes, that is Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl's brother. Gotta start that dynasty.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...

Moreno's money must have trumped the racial makeup of the district, as she won the runoff last night, 56-44.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The pre-election fundraising reports for the two Virginia House of Delegates seats (previously held by Republicans) on 6/15 were posted on VPAP today. Surprisingly, the Democrat in HD-26 (Harrisonburg Mayor Kai Degner) outraised the Republican, $109k to $96k. There's also an independent candidate who raised about $500. In HD-27, not very exciting, the Republican outraised the Democrat $109k to $6k.

And HD-27 is the district Obama won.  Amazing how inept Democrats are at these special elections.

That really doesn't mean much; Obama overperformed in a lot of suburban districts that are otherwise solidly Republican.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only seat the Republicans picked up that didn't go McDonnell/Bolling/Cuccinelli was HD-34, and that was only because Shannon tied it 50-50. As for the 86th, Stevens Miller wasn't that great of a candidate; he didn't raise much money and was dependent on the state party to do the heavy lifting for him.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The two Virginia specials are tomorrow, as well as one in Massachusetts that doesn't have a Republican running. My guess for the Virginia ones are about a 60% win for the Republican in HD-26 and about a 70% win for the Republican in HD-27.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, Chesterfield County certainly counts votes quickly. It's all in, 73-27 for the Republican. Still nothing from the 26th.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Part of the 26th is in, and Democrat Kai Degner barely won Harrisonburg 48-47. Nice try, anyway.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, Republican Tony Wilt is winning Rockingham 81-16. Ouch.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Tuesday brings us the primary for the California SD-15 seat formerly occupied by Maldonado. Despite being a primary, there's only one candidate from each of four parties on the ballot. In order to win, someone has to get a majority of the vote, otherwise there's a runoff with the same four people in August. It seems rather silly to me.

It looks like Democrat John Laird has the fundraising edge; he's spent $756k, as opposed to Republican Sam Blakeslee, who has spent $435k. For a California State Senate seat, that seems pretty cheap; there were State House races in Virginia that involved more money than that last year.