Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Хahar 🤔]

Orange County - Assembly District 72

100.00% (197 of 197) precincts partially or fully reporting as of Jan 12, 2010, 10:35 p.m.

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Chris Norby (Rep)	20,292	62.88%
John MacMurray (Dem)	10,018	31.04%
Jane Rands (Grn)	1,963	6.08%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FWIW, a Democrat has already declared his candidacy for Scott Brown's State Senate seat.

Rep. Richard Ross would be the likely Republican candidate, and would presumably be favored in a special election situation.  Not sure if Republicans would be lucky enough for the timing to allow a special election for Ross's seat, but that'd be the ideal situation for them—not that a Wrentham-based seat should be especially competitive, especially in a year like 2010 with Patrick topping the ballot.

[MaxQue]

While occassionally a special election for a state/local office may be significant in and of itself, it seems to me that it is often more important as an indicator of change.

As such, would appreciate it if the results of the previous election for that office were posted so that readers can discern trends.

Totally disagree than special elections can show a trend, but posting previous result and showing the trend is used in thread for special elections in other countries on the forum, so, it is logic to put them for US elections too, I think.

[MaxQue]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)

More later...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Wikipedia says a special election in late 2009 resulted in a Republican winning a Democratic-held seat. So it is 50-48-1.

^ This is correct.  We won District 62.  We can't replace Kent Williams until the end of this term.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

My state house district (TN-83) has a special election tomorrow. It's a very Republican district, but I've been seeing a lot of signs for the Democrat.  My money is still on the GOP

So this is where you live?

http://www.capitol.tn.gov/districtmaps/House83.pdf

Looks pretty awful honestly.

I know, my neighborhood is so flat, yellow, and gerrymandered. I live in the far NW of the district, near where 40 and 240 come together.

I think you'll find that your new representative has a substantially different leadership style than his predecessor

Ironically Castle won two very Republican precincts in your neck of the woods, and White won the non-white (haha) Democratic precincts near Nonconnah Pkwy.  

In the primary White won massively in East Memphis while John Pellicciotti cleaned house in Germantown.... then in the general White squeeks by in East Memphis but wins Germantown by a mile.

And a final irony --  White's GOP primary opponent John Pellicciotti was sworn into public office before Mark White was.... as the other day he was appointed to the Shelby County Commission to replace an appointed Democrat.  Go figure

Maps forthcoming.

[MaxQue]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)

More later...

Should I continue?

[Хahar 🤔]

Yes.

[MaxQue]

Yes.

That will take a couple of days, sorry. I began many things at the same time, but now I miss time to finish them. I'll try to do quickly as possible.

[Хahar 🤔]

Thanks!

[Bono]

Could anybody compile a list of all state legislative special elections thus far in 2010?

Sure.

January 5
Georgia House District 122  and Senate District 22. Both Dem holds, but in the Senate district there will still be a runoff between two Dems on February 2.

January 12
California Assembly District 72. GOP hold.

New Hampshire House Rockingham County District 8 and Sullivan County District 2. Both GOP.

Tennessee House District 83. GOP hold.

Virginia Senate Districts 8 and 37 . One GOP hold and one Dem pickup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As MN26 nears, I'm going out on a limb and saying that Srp has with a plurality the best chance of winning. Something like 40%, Parry 33%, Engbrecht 27%. Remember this is entirely poll blind.

Srp has run the best campaign by default. He's made a great argument that the district has nothing to lose by electing him since he'll be up in 2010 and they can then elect a Democrat or Republican if they want to. Engbrecht's campaign has mostly been boring, bland Democratic talking points. Parry's campaign has been nothing but shameless extremism. That'd weaken him if it were a general election and he could certainly lose if he gets in unless he tones down in November, but in a special election it might help with the crazies. Engbrecht could win on that in a two-way race, but I see moderate Republicans more likely to flee to Srp.

Ultimately though Srp could still take third if both the GOP and DFL turnout machines are big. Here's the thing though: A DFL victory in this seat requires huge turnout in Faribault, not complete destruction in Owatonna and the rurals, and a slight victory in Waseca. The first bit is up to the DFL. The second two depend on whether or not the moderate Republicans and independents decide to stick with Parry in those areas. The third depends on a DFL machine and Engbrecht keeping moderate Democrats from going to Srp in his hometown. The most likely victory for Engbrecht is probably a huge win in Faribault, a close to tie in Owatonna and the rural parts thanks to Srp siphoning lots of votes from Parry, and a narrow Srp plurality in Waseca. Parry needs Faribault not a landslide, Owatonna and the rural areas very solid and a strong showing in at least second place in Waseca. Srp just needs a huge win (possibly majority) in Waseca and a solid showing everywhere else. Look at Tim Penny's area of support in 2002 and note he was from Waseca, and you'll realize that isn't impossible.

Anyway the IP is closer to their first legitimate pickup in the legislature ever. They've had two seats in the past, one was the former Republican incumbent running for reelection though, the other was a DFL legislator in the north switching parties after being elected and didn't run for reelection.

[rbt48]

Wikipedia says a special election in late 2009 resulted in a Republican winning a Democratic-held seat. So it is 50-48-1.
[/quote]

Well, I guess the Speaker rules with an iron fist and can keep a new vote for Speaker off the agenda, so Williams stays in office until he is voted out by a stronger Republican majority in January, 2011.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Never mind the above. I overestimated Waseca's size. It's not big, even in relation to the district. Srp could get 50% there, but if he gets 25% in the rest of the district, that's still not even 30%.

I have to call Parry the favorite then, even if only by plurality. Coleman got 42% in the seat (about his state numbers), Mark Kennedy got 40%. That's a solid GOP base. And though Coleman basically mirrored his state numbers, Barkley got over 20%, and Franken underran. That's good news for Srp. But he needs more than a bunch of votes in Waseca. He could still pull off strong in other areas just by not being Parry or Engbrecht, but he's going to need a lot beyond Barkley's numbers (which themselves were strong) to win.

Parry can be stopped though if enough moderate Republicans in Owatonna jump ship and the DFL turnout operation in Faribault resembles that of 2004 statewide.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I've edited the first post in the thread to include upcoming special elections. If there are others that are set, let me know and I'll put them in.

Another one coming up in Virginia is Dave Marsden's House of Delegates seat (HD-41). Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn (yes, that is her actual name), who worked in the Warner and Kaine administrations and ran for the seat way back in 1999 (lost by 17%) has filed to run. Republican Kerry Bolognese, who held Marsden to a 200-ish vote margin last year, is also running.

Filler-Corn's ties to Warner and Kaine should give her a leg up on fundraising. Also, the district is slightly more Democratic than SD-37. Bolognese will have the advantage of name recognition from his previous run, but he won't have McDonnell's coattails to help him this time.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.boston.com/yourtown/news/needham/2010/01/candidates_eye_browns_seat.html

[MaxQue]

I've edited the first post in the thread to include upcoming special elections. If there are others that are set, let me know and I'll put them in.

There is two more special elections in New Hampshire. I'll write for which districts when I'll complete the list of results I began in a realier post.

[MaxQue]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)
Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)

Special elections in State Senate District 16 on February 16 and State Assembly Coos Second District on March 9.

[CARLHAYDEN]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)
Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)

Special elections in State Senate District 16 on February 16 and State Assembly Coos Second District on March 9.

Thanks for the data.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I found a great calendar that has all the upcoming special elections on it, so I will only be updating the OP to post results:

http://www.statenet.com/resources/election_calendar.php

[MaxQue]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)
Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)


Tennessee House District 83

2008

Brian Kelsey (R) 20,592 votes (100%)

2010 special

Mark White (R) 3,236 votes (67.44%)
Guthrie Castle (D) 1,452 votes (30.26%)
John Andreuccetti (I) 110 votes (2.29%)


Virginia Senate District 8

2007

Kenneth W. "Ken" Stolle (R) 13,137 votes (95.59%)
Write-in 606 votes (4.40%)

2010 special

Jeff L. McWaters (R) 8,052 votes (78.58%)
William W. "Bill" Fleming (D) 2,185 votes (21.32%)
Write-In 9 votes (0.08%)


Virginia Senate District 37

2007

Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II (R) 18,602 votes (50.02%)
Janet S. Oleszek (D) 18,510 votes (49.77%)
Write-in 73 votes (0.19%)

2010 special

Dave W. Marsden (D) 11,954 votes (50.64%) (+0.87%)
Steve M. Hunt (R) 11,627 votes (49.26%) (-0.76%)
Write-in 21 votes (0.08%) (-0.11%)


Georgia House District 122 on January 5

2008

Hardie Davis (D) 15,060 votes (99.43%)
Write-in 87 votes (0.57%)

2010 special

Earnest J. Smith (D), no election, was the only candidate.

Georgia Senate District 22 was on the same day, but no candidate reached 50% so, there will be a runoff on February 2 between two Democrat candidates. There was 3 Democrats and 1 Libertarian in the general election. Complete results once the runoff is done.

[MaxQue]

Minnesota Senate District 26

Election on Tuesday, Monday 26.

BRTD is covering very well the election, but I will write 2006 result now.

2006

Dick Day (R) 16,148 votes (54.48%)
Jeremy Eller (D) 13,450 votes (45.37%)
Write-in 44 votes (0.15%)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Weather's been absolutely miserable lately here btw. I drove through that district last night and the fog was so bad there were points where visibility was about the length of one car ahead (luckily the streets were basically empty anyway.) However forecast for Tuesday is dry, very cold (in the teens), but Minnesotans are used to that. Turnout might not be as hampered as it would've been with the weekend weather.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a good writeup: http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/01/how_republican_is_minnesota_se.php

and a map: http://www.gis.leg.mn/l2002/pdf/26.pdf

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota 26 results!

Parry 55.42%
Srp 24.1%
Engbrecht 20.48%

OK, that's a very small and heavily Republican precinct. (McCain won it 65-33). But if that pattern holds could be bad news for Engbrecht...he could pull off huge numbers in Faribault though.