Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The legislature was split for redistricting, so the map might be a Dem gerrymander or a bipartisan gerrymander, depending on whether each house of the legislature draws their own maps.

[Linus Van Pelt]

If a Negro can get 47% in Marion county, any local white Democrat should have a cakewalk.

Marion actually swung to Obama, despite being a 89% white rural county - he beat Kerry by 1 percentage point, or around 200 raw votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Karen Carter won a 2-D runoff in a special state senate election in Louisiana Saturday. Nothing exciting there.

Four New York Assembly seats are up tomorrow, districts 3, 15, 24, and 89. Here's a nice rundown of the seats:

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[xavier110]

I predict whoever has the Independence line to prevail.

[Verily]

I predict whoever has the Independence line to prevail.

True for the first three, not true for the last. The 89th is solidly Democratic, around 60% for Obama; the Independence line makes no difference for the Republicans.

[they don't love you like i love you]

All four look like holds.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republicans picked up the 3rd and 89th, held the 15th, and Democrats held the 24th.

Results:

3rd
Dean Murray (R/Cons) - 4,186 (51%)
Lauren Thoden (D/Ind/WF) - 4,000 (49%)

15th (97% in)
Michael Montesanto (R/Cons/Ind) - 3,719 (71%)
Matthew Meng (D/WF) - 1,497 (29%)

24th (98% in)
David Weprin (D/Ind/WF) - 4,166 (63%)
Bob Friedrich (R/Cons) - 2,432 (37%)

89th (98% in)
Robert Castelli (R/Cons/Ind) - 6,732 (55%)
Peter Harckham (D/WF) - 5,430 (45%)

Edit: Also, there will be another special, as the State Senate just voted to expel Monserrate.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

15th wasn't even close, 74-26 for the Republican.

[Rowan]

All four look like holds.

LOL

[Sam Spade]

Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.

Everyone knew Weprin would win and decided not to show up?

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Actually, the win in the 89th is equally as surprising, for the same reasons.  Dems have held that seat for 17 years and it's considered Dem-leaning.  Also, the Republican had no money (Dem raised three times as much money), no website, no nothing. 

But this is merely continuing a lot of the trends that I was noting in 2009 NY results, so carry on.

[Dan the Roman]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

[Sam Spade]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

[Holmes]

fwiw:

ALBANY — The State Senate on Tuesday expelled a senator convicted of domestic assault, the first time in nearly a century that the Legislature has forced a member from office.

The Senate voted 53-to-8 to immediately oust the senator, Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat convicted last fall of a misdemeanor for dragging his companion down the hallway of his apartment building.

Yay.

[Frodo]

fwiw:

ALBANY — The State Senate on Tuesday expelled a senator convicted of domestic assault, the first time in nearly a century that the Legislature has forced a member from office.

The Senate voted 53-to-8 to immediately oust the senator, Hiram Monserrate, a Queens Democrat convicted last fall of a misdemeanor for dragging his companion down the hallway of his apartment building.

Yay.

New York has nothing on Illinois..... 

[cinyc]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.

Ah, so its that district. You might want to stretch that back a little... say, to the early 70s.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why don't you just tell us rather than being coy about it? It's not like historical data on a state legislative seat is that easy to come by.

On a purely numbers level, the Westchester result is worse -- it's a 60+% Obama district that the Republican won by 10%, while the 3rd is more marginal (my best guess is about 55% Obama, and the result last night was 51-49).

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...

[MArepublican]

Nan Hayworth seems like a great canidate to take out John Hall unlike Greg Ball she seems to be moderate which is what the district needs. She looks like a perfect model of Sue Kelly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I think Bishop is likely in more trouble than Hall should these trends impact the 2010 house races.  Hall comes across (from what I know) as a far stronger candidate (or at least a better campaigner).  That said, I don't think either will lose.

[Verily]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.

[Sam Spade]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.

You're assuming that I reflect the opinion of "those in the know" regarding said movement, just FYI.  I might have just been posting that to taunt for all that you know...

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...

If Sam Spade isn't sure what's going on, then it's time to tell.