Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[cinyc]

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89, though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43.)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.

[rbt48]

Anybody seen a newer alignment than this?http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488

2010 Partisan Composition of State Legislatures                                       
                                       
State   Total   Dem   Rep   Indep   Vacant   Un-      Total   Dem   Rep   Indep   Vacant   Un-
   Seats         Other      Decided      Seats         Other      decided
Alabama   35   21   14   0   0   0      105   60   44   0   1   0
Alaska   20   10   10   0   0   0      40   18   22   0   0   0
Arizona   30   12   18   0   0   0      60   25   35   0   0   0
Arkansas   35   27   8   0   0   0      100   71   28   1   0   0
California   40   25   14   0   1   0      80   49   29   1   1   0
Colorado   35   21   14   0   0   0      65   37   27   1   0   0
Connecticut   36   24   12   0   0   0      151   114   36   0   1   0
Delaware   21   15   6   0   0   0      41   24   17   0   0   0
Florida   40   14   26   0   0   0      120   43   76   0   1   0
Georgia   56   21   34   0   1   0      180   74   105   0   1   0
Hawaii   25   23   2   0   0   0      51   45   6   0   0   0
Idaho   35    7   28   0   0   0      70   18   52   0   0   0
Illinois   59   37   22   0   0   0      118   70   48   0   0   0
Indiana   50   17   33   0   0   0      100   52   48   0   0   0
Iowa   50   32   18   0   0   0      100   56   44   0   0   0
Kansas   40   9   31   0   0   0      125   49   76   0   0   0
Kentucky   38   17   20   1   0   0      100   64   35   0   1   0
Louisiana   39   23   16   0   0   0      105   52   50   3   0   0
Maine   35   20   15   0   0   0      151   95   55   1   0   0
Maryland   47   33   14   0   0   0      141   104   36   0   1   0
Massachusetts   40   34   5   0   1   0      160   144   16   0   0   0
Michigan   38   16   22   0   0   0      110   66   43   0   1   0
Minnesota   67   46   20   0   1   0      134   87   47   0   0   0
Mississippi   52   26   25   0   1   0      122   74   48   0   0   0
Missouri   34   11   23   0   0   0      163   73   89   0   1   0
Montana   50   23   27   0   0   0      100   50   50   0   0   0
Nebraska   49   *   *   49   *   *      *   *   *   *   *   *
Nevada   21   12   8   0   1   0      42   28   14   0   0   0
New Hampshire   24   14   9   0   1   0      400   222   175   0   3   0
New Jersey   40   23   17   0   0   0      80   47   33   0   0   0
New Mexico   42   27   15   0   0   0      70   45   25   0   0   0
New York   62   31   30   0   1   0      150   107   43   0   0   0
North Carolina   50   30   20   0   0   0      120   68   52   0   0   0
North Dakota   47   21   26   0   0   0      94   36   58   0   0   0
Ohio   33   12   21   0   0   0      99   53   46   0   0   0
Oklahoma   48   22   26   0   0   0      101   40   61   0   0   0
Oregon   30   18   12   0   0   0      60   36   24   0   0   0
Pennsylvania   50   20   30   0   0   0      203   103   97   0   3   0
Rhode Island   38   33   4   1   0   0      75   69   6   0   0   0
South Carolina   46   19   27   0   0   0      124   51   73   0   0   0
South Dakota   35   14   21   0   0   0      70   24   46   0   0   0
Tennessee   33   14   19   0   0   0      99   47   50   1   1   0
Texas   31   12   19   0   0   0      150   73   77   0   0   0
Utah   29   8   21   0   0   0      75   22   53   0   0   0
Vermont   30   22   7   1   0   0      150   95   48   7   0   0
Virginia   40   22   18   0   0   0      100   39   59   2   0   0
Washington   49   31   18   0   0   0      98   62   36   0   0   0
West Virginia   34   26   8   0   0   0      100   71   29   0   0   0
Wisconsin   33   18   15   0   0   0      99   52   46   1   0   0
Wyoming   30   7   23   0   0   0      60   19   41   0   0   0
TOTALS:   1971   1020   891   52   8   0      5411   3023   2354   19   15   0
Source: National Conference of State Legislatures                                       

[Brittain33]

That chart includes Dave Marsden's win in Virginia on Jan. 12, so it's probably as good as it gets.

[Verily]

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89, though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43.)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.

New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.

[cinyc]

New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.

Obama won the county 63-36.  So just like in the 2009 County Exec race, the four NY-19 towns were about average for the county, with Mount Kisco slightly more Democratic and Lewisboro slightly more Republican.  Harrison and North Castle in NY-18 are Republican strongholds relative to the rest of the county.  Of the other two NY-18 municipalities, White Plains in NY-18 leans more Democratic than the county (though your AD-89 guestimate suggests the AD-89 part is about average); New Castle went more strongly Democratic in the Presidential race than in the County Exec race.  Perhaps that's because the Republican in the county exec race was from neighboring Mount Pleasant.

I don't know where the NY-19 towns rank relative to the rest of NY-19 (probably more Democratic than average), but a Republican winning the district can't bode well for John Hall - he's in for a fight.

[timmer123]

This is interesting to follow.

Maryland does not have special elections for legislative vacancies.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The chart is as close as you'll get given how fluid the composition of the legislatures is. It's missing the Virginia House vacancy, but otherwise it looks pretty complete.

[Bono]

Anybody seen a newer alignment than this?http://www.ncsl.org/default.aspx?tabid=19488

~snip~                  

http://www.statenet.com/resources/partisan_lineup.php

There are a few inaccuracies, mostly having to do with legislators changing parties; if you have doubts, check Wikipedia, they're usually very up to date on most legs.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

A few up today:

Alabama HD-40 - Democratic seat, the incumbent died.
Mississippi SD-36 - Democratic seat where the incumbent was appointed to the bench by Haley Barbour. There are seven candidates running, so this one will probably end up in a runoff.
New Hampshire SD-16 - Republican seat, the incumbent was elected mayor of Manchester.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)

[rbt48]

So if the Republican scored an upset in MS SD-36 today, it would tie that chamber?  I understand it is most unlikely to happen.

[Хahar 🤔]

(wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?)

Lee County, Arkansas and Lee County, South Carolina are also majority black.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So if the Republican scored an upset in MS SD-36 today, it would tie that chamber?  I understand it is most unlikely to happen.

Yes, the split is currently 26-25 with one vacancy. However, it being a majority-black seat (just drew it in the redistricting app - 65% black), the only way a Republican could win is if he/she is black (since party labels aren't on the ballot). I have no idea who any of the candidates are.

That Alabama seat looks like a GOP pickup, Mississippi one is probably a hold (wow, there is seriously a majority black county in Mississippi called Jefferson Davis County?), and the NH one could go either way, maybe GOP leaning (appears to have voted for Obama but he did arguably overrun in NH, was basically a dead heat in 2004.)

I wouldn't count the Dems out in Alabama; they've managed to hold on to several legislative seats over the past year.

[xavier110]

NH SD-16 is a GOP hold.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Yeah, looks like a stomping.

http://www.wmur.com/politics/22585344/detail.html

*  Candia: Boutin 355, Goley 125
* Dunbarton: Boutin 274, Goley 162
* Bow: Boutin 664, Goley 572
* Hooksett: Boutin 873, Goley 430
* Manchester, Ward 1: Boutin 803, Goley 701
* Manchester, Ward 2: Boutin 455, Goley 423
* Manchester, Ward 12: Boutin 344, Goley 270

Total:

David Boutin (R) - 3,768 (58%)
Jeff Goley (D) - 2,683 (42%)

Can't find any results for the other two elections.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Scratch that, the local paper has a twitter feed of the Alabama results:

http://twitter.com/AnnistonStar

7/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 1,013 59.1%
Ricky Whaley (D) 655 38.2%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 47 2.7%

Edit: 12/24 precincts:
K.L. Brown (R) 2,243 59.6%
Ricky Whaley (D) 1,419 37.7%
Carol Hagan (ind.) 100 2.7%

That'll just leave an eight-seat pickup for the Republicans to win the Alabama House in November. Although really, if they come within a seat or two, I'm sure there will be some party-switchers.

[Mr.Phips]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I was wrong about the composition of that NH seat, I couldn't find a map but the legislative page made it appear to be completely within Manchester. It's actually a lot more Republican than it appeared.

[Хahar 🤔]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Don't feed the troll.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Obviously it's also Obama's fault that when some Dixiecrat dinosaur in a >65% for McCain district dies the Democrats can't hold it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Finally got partial results for the Mississippi Senate race. The top two finishers were Albert Butler and Jimmy Strong (the latter being the one Republican in the race, although the same no-party-on-ballot caveat applies). I'm willing to bet that Butler soaks up almost all the votes from the defeated candidates in the runoff.

[rbt48]

When is the runoff to occur?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

March 9.

[Mr.Phips]

Just wonderful.  This is what Obama's Presidency is doing to the Democratic party.  This makes a net loss of eleven state legislative seats since Obama's election.  Democrats should take this guy, put steel boots on him and drown him for what he is done to the party.  This is a huge price for Democrats to be paying just to have a symbol sitting in the White House. 

Obviously, a Republican hold in a state legislative seat is far more important than control of the White House.

Holding several and likely holding Congress is far more important than control of the White House.  The White House is the weakest branch of government.