Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #300 on: March 17, 2010, 12:49:21 PM »

He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

You think Christie pulled him out of the legislature because he was unwhippable?

No, because the seat leans Democratic and Greenstein has the slight advantage in November. Baroni in that seat is an asset to the NJ GOP. I think Baroni left to escape a Republican primary campaign where all sorts of uncomfortable questions would come up about why he voted the way he did...

Which is sad, because he had been on track for a promising statewide career. Such is life when you're "one of the good ones."
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jimrtex
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« Reply #301 on: March 19, 2010, 10:14:58 AM »

Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.
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« Reply #302 on: March 19, 2010, 05:40:49 PM »

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.
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Rowan
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« Reply #303 on: March 19, 2010, 05:46:12 PM »


LOL. What?
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Badger
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« Reply #304 on: March 22, 2010, 08:02:50 AM »

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

That should tell you all you need to know. FWIW, when I visited my sister in Manhattan she would take us out to JH for what she calls the best Indian lunch in the city (Jackson Diner on 74th). From my brief stroll in the area, that neighborhood had a distinctly more urban feel than some of the more suburbanesqe parts of Queens.
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« Reply #305 on: March 22, 2010, 08:12:52 AM »

So the Republican has 6%? LOL.

Who the hell are these 34% of idiots though?

It's Jackson Heights. 8% (the final result) is a good showing for the Republicans. And presumably the 27% for Monserrate are Puerto Ricans (while the Peralta voters are Dominicans and other Hispanics, with all the Asians, not totally insubstantial in the seat, also supporting him).

Plus, Monserrate apparently tried to make the race about gay marriage (which Peralta supports). Not the greatest strategy in the heartland of the Hispanic gay community in NYC, but it probably won him some social conservative vote from various Hispanic groups.

What kind of place is Jackson Heights? All the ads on Bengali TV are for places in Jackson Heights.

Mix of Asians and Hispanics. Asians (particularly South Asians) in the west and south, Hispanics (mostly Caribbeans, like in most of NYC) in the north, east and center as the neighborhood blends with Corona to the east. The Asian communities are larger in bordering Rego Park and Elmhurst but substantial in Jackson Heights as well, so it's not a huge surprise that Jackson Heights pops up on Bengali TV.

Very, very diverse and vibrant and has been for quite some time. Not impoverished for the most part, just steady middle class. Very prime location for commuting into Manhattan as there are some express subway stops in the area on multiple lines.

Also contains a substantial gay community near the subway lines, notable for being the center of the Hispanic gay community in NYC (much like Fort Greene is the center of the black gay community--a gay community on the edge of a larger ethnic enclave).
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Lunar
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« Reply #306 on: March 29, 2010, 06:03:04 AM »

Bloomberg in a wig isn't as cool as Rudy in drag, but here it is:


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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #307 on: April 12, 2010, 07:00:22 AM »

Has it really been so long since the last special? Well, there are a few tomorrow:

California AD-43 - Democratic incumbent elected to the LA City Council. Three Dems and one R running; likely an easy Dem hold, but it's unclear whether one candidate will win a majority in the first round.

California SD-37 - Republican incumbent appointed to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors; it's fairly Republican, so it shouldn't be too hard to hold. It will probably go to a second round, though, with 6 major-party candidates running.

Florida HD-4 - This one's on the panhandle, so it should be an easy Republican hold, especially since some attorney spent $300k to win the Republican primary.

Also, two primaries in Mass:

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) - It's SCOTT BROWN's Senate seat! Primary for the Democratic nomination; either physician Peter Smulowitz and State Rep. Lida Harkins will win the chance to face off against Republican State Rep. Richard Ross in May.

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) - Six Democrats are running in this primary, which is going to be the deciding election, as no Republican has filed. Sal DiDomineco, the previous incumbent's Chief of Staff seems to be the favorite here. Shame, I would've gone with Denise Simmons, the black lesbian mayor of Cambridge.

You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #308 on: April 12, 2010, 08:04:46 AM »

You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.

I dunno, there's a special charm to living in the Thirty-fourth Middlesex.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #309 on: April 14, 2010, 07:02:17 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2010, 07:08:34 AM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Results from last night:

CA AD-43:

Mike Gatto (D) - 10,584 (32.3%)
Sunder Ramani (R) - 10,403 (31.8%)

Nayiri Nahabedian (D) - 7,298 (22.3%)
Chahe Keuroghelian (D) - 4,444 (13.6%)

CA SD-37:

Bill Emmerson (R) - 36,507 (41.6%)
Russ Bogh (R) - 19,247 (21.9%)
Justin Blake (D) - 12,253 (14.0%)
Anna Nevenic (D) - 7,524 (8.6%)
Arthur Bravo Guerrero (D) - 6,283 (7.2%)
Matt Monica (AI) - 3,884 (4.4%)
David W. Peters (R) - 2,036 (2.3%)

FL HD-4:

Matt Gaetz (R) - 10,118 (66.0%)
Jan Fernald (D) - 5,212 (34.0%)

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary:

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Mass Senate (Middlesex, Suffolk, Essex) D primary (no actual numbers):

Sal DiDomenico (D) – 30%
Tim Flaherty (D) -  29%
Denise Simmons (D) – 20%
Mike Albano (D) – 10%
Dennis Benzan (D) – 8%
Dan Hill (D) – 1%

Flaherty is refusing to concede, contending that there were "voting irregularities".
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #310 on: April 14, 2010, 02:16:18 PM »


Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #311 on: April 19, 2010, 06:30:55 PM »

Two special elections to be held on Saturday May 8 (uniform spring election date).  Since these are only for the remainder of this year, and the legislature is not in session, and is unlikely to be in session, these are relatively meaningless.  The primaries for the 2011+ terms have already been conducted.

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

There was another district that had been added, HD 66 which is in Collin County, due to the resignation of Brian McCall to become chancellor of the Texas State University System (Texas has several independent system governing bodies, Texas State University system is just one of them).  But the loser of the Republican primary runoff, has just withdrawn from the special election, so the Republican primary winner, Van Taylor will become the current representative.

In addition only one candidate filed in HD 100, so that special is also cancelled.

So the only special still on is SD 22.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #312 on: April 24, 2010, 03:22:19 PM »

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?

Maine doesn't have such a provision, and in both 2002 and 2008 a Democratic caucus of combined municipal committees chose a candidate to replace an unopposed incumbent on the general election ballot.  The replacement candidate so chosen in 2002 barely won "re-"election against a Republican in 2004, became an Independent in 2005, started caucusing with the Republicans, handily defeated the same Democratic challenger in 2006 and 2008 (no Republican has opposed him since he left the Democrats), became a Republican last year and is now their candidate for the State Senate in his district (and will probably win).
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jimrtex
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« Reply #313 on: April 25, 2010, 01:43:12 PM »

SD 22 (Central Texas, southern DFW suburbs, similar to Chet Edward's district, 68% McCain): To replace Kip Averitt who resigned for health reasons.  After Averitt resigned, he was talked into remaining on the primary ballot so that his opponent Darren Yancy would not be elected unopposed, and instead the Republican party could name a replacement nominee.

Averitt won the primary based on 71% support in McLennan County, and 50-50 in the DFW suburbs.  The special election is for the remainder of the term, but might be considered a straw poll for deciding who is nominated by the Republican party.  Yancy has said that he would run in the special election, along with David Sibley, the former senator (until 2002).  Sibley like Averitt, is from Waco.

Since Averitt is withdrawing from his nomination for the 2011-2013 term for health reasons, he may be replaced by the Republican Party.  However, since there are no other nominees, all parties will be able to nominate for the November election (and of course anyone can run in the special election).  Democrats may not want to draw out Republican votes to vote against Edwards, so may pass on this district.

So the only special still on is SD 22.

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
No write-ins in Texas primaries except for party offices.

Candidates in the special election:

David Sibley(R) is from Waco and the former senator for the district. 

About 1/3 of the district is new since he last ran in 1998 (for a 1999-2003 term).  The district used to wrap around to the west of Fort Worth, and was shifted to include Ellis County, and the more populous northern part of Johnson County.  41% of the district is in the DFW southern suburbs (Ellis, Johnson, Hood); 31% is in McLennan (Waco); 28% in the rest of the district (Coryell, Navarro, Hill, Falls, Bosque, Somervell).

In a special election, Sibley will have an advantage being from Waco, since the Waco newspaper and TV/radio stations will cover the election, and there is a feeling that Waco deserves a senator.  The special election is on the spring uniform election date, so there will be other city and school board elections, but these all cover small areas and they are unlikely to be be hotly contested.  The Fort Worth Startlegram and Dallas Morning News will cover the election peripherally, as will the TV and radio stations, since it is at best 10% of their immediate coverage area.

Sibley has the endorsement of Rep. Joe Barton, whose district includes Ellis and Navarro, and would be known in Johnson, and George W Bush who was governor when Sibley was senator.  He has the negative of having been a lobbyist in Austin for the past 8 years, and he took a homestead exemption for a house in Travis County.

Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).

Darren Yancy is from Burleson in Johnson County, insurance and real estate.  He lost the primary with 40% of the vote, which is probably a little better than he would have done had Averitt actually campaigned.  Averitt probably got a lot of the vote in the primary from name recognition of voters who were voting in the gubernatorial race, including crossovers and independents.  Turnout in the Republican Primary in the district was 5.7 times that as Democrats, vs. 2.2 statewide.  Yancy is the only candidate supporting Nullification.

Gayle Avant is the Democrat candidate.  He is a just-retiring law professor at Baylor (in Waco).   He says he would be like W.R.Poage who was a congressman from 1937-1979.  He will be going against Sibley in McLennan County, so voters who want a senator from Waco will vote for Sibley.  And there won't necessarily be voters who turn out to vote a straight Democratic ticket, since this will be the only partisan race on the ballot.

The winner has to have a majority, with a runoff in June if there isn't a majority, though it is not unknown for a runner-up to withdraw. 

If I understand the election code, the replacements for the general election don't have to be named until late August.  The Republicans will probably go with the winner of the special election.  The decisions is made by the county chairs of the 10 counties, so if it were a totally free vote, Sibley might have an advantage.  The Democrats will pick whoever is willing to run, so unless Avant gets 15% of the vote in the special election, it is probably his for the asking.  It doesn't matter, since the district was 68% McCain, and Republicans will be pushing turnout to defeat Edwards.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #314 on: April 25, 2010, 01:53:58 PM »


Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #315 on: April 26, 2010, 10:18:29 AM »


Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.


And back on the first hand, Lida Harkins is pissed as hell at Smulowitz for his attacking her in the primary and all but endorsing the Republican, which is going to deny him a serious slug of votes he needed to win this. Ah well.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #316 on: April 26, 2010, 10:20:11 AM »

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.

Oh, I don't doubt that Democrats are better off with Smulowitz if he was able to defeat Harkins. I had simply presumed that Harkins would be much stronger than she turned out to be.

Smulowitz's problem is that he won the primary by going negative to the extent that Harkins is refusing to endorse him:

Quote from: Restricted
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In other words, "good luck with getting the numbers you need out of Needham." These are precisely the circumstances that lead to Republicans winning elections in seats about 10 to 20 points more Democratic than this one.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #317 on: April 26, 2010, 08:37:29 PM »

Who are the candidates in the special election, and what party/parties are they from?  Also, any word on whether the Democrats will take advantage of the provision that allows them to nominate a candidate for the full term even though none filed by the normal deadline or got enough write-in votes in the primary (unless one did)?
Brian Birdwell is from Granbury (in Hood County) and a motivational speaker.  He was at the Pentagon on 9/11 and received burns over 60% of this body.  There was an issue raised on whether he has been a Texas resident for the five years necessary.  His explanation was that he was still on active duty and also receiving continued treatment  (he has 39 operations) until 2007.  While a possible legal issue, it is not a favorable campaign issue (and the SOS has already ruled him eligible for the special election ballot).
Birdwell has just got a declaratory judgment that he has been a Texas resident since 1973.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #318 on: April 27, 2010, 07:01:07 PM »

Bob McDonnell appointed a couple Delegates to posts in his administration, so there are two special elections slated for June 15 (yes, the week after the primary -- Virginia apparently can't hold two different elections on the same day), HD-26 and 27. Both are Republican seats and will likely stay Republican.

HD-26 is about 50/50 Harrisonburg and Rockingham County, and is a very Republican district (Obama got 44% there, but that was because he overperformed there due to the presence of JMU). Democrats actually got a good candidate, the mayor of Harrisonburg, but I can't see a Democrat winning there. The last time the seat was open, in 2005, the Democrat lost 54-46, but that was a better environment for Dems.

HD-27 would be more interesting in a better environment for the Democrats. It's a Republican-leaning district, but it's in the suburbs of Richmond that have been drifting towards the Democrats somewhat. However, the Dems don't even have a candidate yet, so it may go uncontested.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #319 on: April 28, 2010, 02:01:54 AM »

HD 100 (South Dallas, Black 46%, Hispanic 36%, Anglo 16%): To replace Terri Hodge who resigned as part of her plea bargain.  She remained on the Democratic primary ballot where she receive a little over 22% of the vote.  This may draw only one candidate for the special election (the winner of the Democratic primary who is unopposed in November).
Hodge was just sentenced today to one year for not reporting $74,000 in income (from kickbacks/bribes).  Others involved in the case have received terms of up to 14 years.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #320 on: April 28, 2010, 02:11:28 AM »

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.
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« Reply #321 on: April 28, 2010, 03:17:10 AM »
« Edited: April 28, 2010, 03:11:36 PM by Хahar »

Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.
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« Reply #322 on: April 29, 2010, 02:49:28 AM »

Ah, so Maldonado finally was confirmed? First Republican Lieutenant Governor in 25 years, he is. His district is literally a stone's throw from my house. I can see it from where I sit.

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.
Yes.  Schwarzenegger had to nominate him a second time.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #323 on: April 29, 2010, 09:11:58 AM »

Democratic favorite is John Laird, former Assemblyman and Mayor of Santa Cruz. He's gay.

That would be pretty awesome to have two openly gay Lt. Governors elected this year--him and Richard Tisei in Mass.
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« Reply #324 on: April 29, 2010, 09:54:29 AM »

California Senate District 15, to replace Abel Maldonado who has become Lt.Governor of California.

June 22, 2010 for the special primary, August 17, 2010 for the special general.

The district is a coastal strip from Santa Barbara to Monterey, with some spilling over into Santa Clara.

Looking at a map... How the hell did a Republican ever win that district?
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