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November 21, 2018, 12:46:07 am
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News: Election 2018 predictions for US Senate are now open!.

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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)
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Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 137339 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #475 on: February 19, 2011, 09:52:07 pm »

You can't make early calls on these Southern races without knowing exactly what's in precinct-wise. Even though it's Acadia.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #476 on: February 19, 2011, 09:55:38 pm »

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.
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rbt48
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« Reply #477 on: February 19, 2011, 10:00:38 pm »

As of 8:59 PM:
61 of 106 precincts reporting

Nathan Granger (D) 48.08% 5970
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.92% 6447

Yes, this is for control of the State Senate.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #478 on: February 19, 2011, 10:03:59 pm »

That's funny, now Granger is winning in Acadia (though only by a handful of votes) while losing in Vermillion.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #479 on: February 19, 2011, 10:06:41 pm »

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #480 on: February 19, 2011, 10:10:26 pm »

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #481 on: February 19, 2011, 10:15:21 pm »

Everything's in, and Perry wins by 688 votes.

It doesn't really matter for redistricting, since the Congressional map is going to be 5-1, and the Democrats are screwed when it comes to the state legislature. They're going to lose an entire Senate seat in New Orleans.
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rbt48
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« Reply #482 on: February 19, 2011, 10:16:25 pm »

Looks like the Republicans have taken over the LA State Senate, 20 to 19.

State Senator -- 26th Senatorial District
All 106 precincts reporting
Nathan Granger (D) 48.25%  9,491
Jonathan Perry (R) 51.75%  10,179
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #483 on: February 19, 2011, 10:17:28 pm »

Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.
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rbt48
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« Reply #484 on: February 19, 2011, 10:20:15 pm »

This leaves the Democrats holding both houses in Arkansas, the State Senate in Virginia, the State House in Kentucky and Mississippi.  All else is Republican in Dixie.

Also, here is the nation-wide breakout:
26 Republican-controlled Legislatures
15 Democratic-controlled Legislatures
8 Split Legislatures
1 Officially non-partisan (Nebraska)
50 Total
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #485 on: February 19, 2011, 10:32:55 pm »

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.

But they could still have bargained for a map that would give them opportunities to win open seats in good years.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #486 on: February 19, 2011, 10:37:31 pm »

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #487 on: February 19, 2011, 10:38:31 pm »

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #488 on: February 19, 2011, 10:45:49 pm »

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Obama won't be President after 2017 at the latest. Democrats won LA-03 as an open seat in 2004, won a special election for LA-06 in 2008 and came very close to winning LA-04 in 2008. These weren't results with beloved old Dixiecrats, these were open seats. I doubt Louisiana has really trended away from being to elect Democrats in open seats to having absolutely no chance in just a few years.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #489 on: February 20, 2011, 01:33:03 am »

Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.

Fishy?
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Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #490 on: February 20, 2011, 09:32:17 am »

From the results of Louisiana's SD-26 Special election, I'd like to raise a few questions on the voting behaviors of Louisiana's Cajuns:

1. It seems the tactic by the GOP campaign team tarring the Dem candidate through alleged association of his campaign manager with OFA (Organizing for America) works superbly in this race.  I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Thanks!
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Hash
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« Reply #491 on: February 20, 2011, 10:05:25 am »

I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

He's black.

Quote
2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

The President is a black liberal named Hussein from Chicago.

Quote
3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Since when have Southerners voted based on their economic interests?
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #492 on: February 20, 2011, 10:16:32 am »

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #493 on: February 20, 2011, 12:52:24 pm »

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Democrats_lose_another_one_in_the_South.html?showall
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #494 on: February 20, 2011, 02:17:02 pm »

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:



That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #495 on: February 20, 2011, 04:45:23 pm »

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:



That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.

So do you imply that Cajuns can be rather racist folks in terms of their voting behavior?  Thanks!
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« Reply #496 on: February 20, 2011, 05:06:32 pm »

They are Americans. They are White. They are not flaming pinkos. They vote GOP less than 100.000% of the time. QED.
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Voter #457
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« Reply #497 on: February 20, 2011, 05:37:34 pm »

Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #498 on: February 20, 2011, 05:50:57 pm »

Cameron Parish, LA 2008:

President:
McCain 81.44%
Obama 16.16%

Senate:
Landrieu 50.30%
Kennedy 46.92%

LOL
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rbt48
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« Reply #499 on: February 20, 2011, 07:13:23 pm »

Wikipedia has a listing for special state legislative elections.  Someone seems to keep it fairly up to date, though the individual links to the actual races do not necessarily cover that special election.

http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_legislative_special_elections,_2011 

It looks like Tuesday is a busy day for filling vacancies in Connecticut.  I gather the vacancies were mostly a result of the new governor appointing members of the legislature to positions in his administration.  His timing of announcing proposed tax increases might be interesting to see for an impact on the results. 
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