Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Sam Spade]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

[Sam Spade]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

I was going to post this.  I am wondering what is going to happen in New York City with Bloomberg after his overturning term limits.  I am hearing that the Dems internal polls in that race see it surprisingly very close. 

SUSA has Bloomberg up by 8 - a poll I was going to post in a few minutes.  And given the internals on the SUSA poll - I suspect it's closer than that.

btw, I'm not voting for Bloomberg or Thompson either.  Going third party this year - haven't looked over the candidates yet.

Bloomberg's a fascist and the term limits thingy still pisses me off.  I also have a personal reason why Bloomberg can f-off.  Thompson's a tool of the unions, the minorities and the Working Families party (a criminal organization) - I know all about his tenure as the head of the Board of Education back in the incompetent days too.

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?

I'm sure he also didn't get *very* many in 2005 also (definitely a whole lot less than the polls were saying), but this applies to most minorities.  But the blacks will return home this election, I can guarantee it.

I'd have to review the precincts specifically, but truth be told, the Giuliani/Bloomberg coalition has been pretty much the same since 1993, with 1993 mirroring 2001 and 1997 mirroring 2005 for said candidate (with racial variation depending on Dem candidate).

[Sam Spade]

Oh, and good to see you back, WMS.  I missed the thing on the City Council.

The impression I got from reading Joe Monahan was that Berry won the West Side, but who knows for the moment.

Interesting to see that the GOP in NM is possibly getting a tad more intelligent (though that's not saying much).  Folks who hold positions in Albuquerque city politics often get elected to higher office down there.

[Sam Spade]

Bloomberg is also spending insane amounts of money: $15k an hour since summer.  65 million total last week, probably 75 million by now

I should know - I get mailers from him almost every day.

I should note this - in 2005 (I did not live here, but know others), all of the mailers were focused on his accomplishments and simply ignored Ferrer.

A couple of weeks ago, his mailers started changing from being all positive to being about 50% attacking Bill Thompson and 50% positive.

Tells me something is going on.

[Sam Spade]

Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month.  I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.

[Sam Spade]

I really meant what Moderate is pointing out, that's all.  And obviously, these voters may never even show up for all we know.

At an executive level (at least), tied races on Election Day with unpopular incumbents tend to produce odd outcomes moreso than most other contests.  Of course, it's not a correlation, so whatever... 

[Sam Spade]

Ridiculously-small turnout in the Queens district. 23% of precincts in and it's 57-43 for the Dem. Just over 1,100 votes.

Everyone knew Weprin would win and decided not to show up?

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Actually, the win in the 89th is equally as surprising, for the same reasons.  Dems have held that seat for 17 years and it's considered Dem-leaning.  Also, the Republican had no money (Dem raised three times as much money), no website, no nothing. 

But this is merely continuing a lot of the trends that I was noting in 2009 NY results, so carry on.

[Sam Spade]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

[Sam Spade]

I'm going to have to say that I'm not familiar with what's happened in the 3rd AD before about 1990 myself, so please tell...

[Sam Spade]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.

You're assuming that I reflect the opinion of "those in the know" regarding said movement, just FYI.  I might have just been posting that to taunt for all that you know...

[Sam Spade]

HD-41 is a Dem hold, although just barely. Eileen Filler-Corn won by 42 votes, or a 0.4% margin.

Edit: Also, the Republican held the seat in CT.

Recount possible?

[Sam Spade]

gotcha

[Sam Spade]

You can't make early calls on these Southern races without knowing exactly what's in precinct-wise. Even though it's Acadia.

[Sam Spade]

I spoke too soon, it's down to a 25-vote lead.

Not that it really matters, since the Senate's going Republican at some point this year.

Isn't this important for redistricting?

It'll be 5-1 in redistricting - maybe it makes a difference for who gets the shaft.

Anyway, there's 10 precincts left and Perry's up by 441 votes.  We'll see.

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0211/Democrats_lose_another_one_in_the_South.html?showall

[Sam Spade]

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.

[Sam Spade]

Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=121854.msg2743752#msg2743752

[Sam Spade]

Sounds like the Russian guy is going to be the frontrunner for the nomination. He voted for gay marriage in 2009, so I guess he's good? I'm a little surprised, considering how homophobic the former Soviet bloc is.

The Russians in that area of Brooklyn are not any better.

I have to wonder looking at the map - did McCain actually win that SD?  Not that this matters at all in this area of the world (and I really, really mean that).

[Sam Spade]

45% Obama

That's what I thought.  Golden's SD is probably stronger Obama.

[Sam Spade]

So Dems won three of the four assembly seats, including both held by Republicans, and the GOP won the inner city Buffalo district formerly held by a Dem by running a popular Dem who has said he will caucus with the Dems, but not support Sheldon Silver, and endorsed Paladino in 2010.  The race here was D-Cons v. R-Ind. (lol)

Of the two GOP seats, 100 was the more likely one to go as the Dem incumbent who lost to the GOP former 14-term incumbent who had previously lost in 2008 but won the seat back in 2010 (and then died in 2011) was running.  103 is the big win for the Dems.  At any rate, it doesn't really affect Assembly number, but hey.

Meanwhile, the open State Senate seat is basically tied right now.  Storobin leads Fidler by 94 votes with 213/258 precincts reporting.

[Sam Spade]

Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?

[Sam Spade]

Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?

Of the 757, how many do you expect to successfully challenged by either campaign before they are opened and counted?

I have no clue there, but as indicated in the second article NY Jew posted, Storobin's lead is now up to +143, as of yesterday.

[Sam Spade]

That's basically a lot closer than I expected.

For who? The conventional wisdom was safe D, and given Dem bloodletting over the past couple of days, obviously they held to that. Of course with the NY State Senate Dems, nothing is ever safe D, so who knows.

I personally suspected it would be close for a number of reasons.