Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Bacon King]

There'll be another special in California, as Assemblyman Michael Duvall of the OC resigned following the surfacing of some... colorful remarks of his:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/gop_lawmakers_graphic_sex-bragging_caught_on_tape.php

LOLOLOLOL

[Bacon King]

Georgia SD1 - Open R seat, two Rs running: Buddy Carter and Billy Hair.

Eric Johnson's seat; he's resigned to run for governor.

This district is the white part of Chatham County (so minus most of Savannah) along with adjacent Bryan and Liberty Counties. Carter's the former mayor of Pooler (in Chatham), and represents an Assembly District that overlaps with this Senate district basically just in the immediate vicinity of Pooler (which is a sizeable chunk of the district, but still). He seems to be pretty popular. Billy Hair was the two-term Chatham County Commission Chairman for, I believe, 1998-2006.

My guess is that west Chatham goes strongly for Carter and rest of the county for Hair. I have no idea how things are on the ground but my best guess says that Carter carries the other two counties and keeps the margin in Chatham close enough for a victory. This is just a guess though, I'm assuming Carter's more involved here since he's actually giving up an elected position while Hair is in election semi-retirement. Consider this race to lean Carter.

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Kasim Reed's seat; he's resigning to run for mayor of Atlanta. The district is south Fulton plus part of Douglas County/Douglasville. About two thirds black.

With so many candidates it's of course going to a run-off. Nobody's probably getting more than 30%. Donzella James was this district's Senator for eight years in the 90's so the voters might remember her. Her, Torrey Johnson, Kemiziche Atterbury, and Benny Crane are the likely names for a run-off, though with this many candidates anything can really happen.

I'll talk about the house races tomorrow.

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[Bacon King]

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far east Atlanta, including (I think) all of the Dekalb part of the city. About two-thirds black but with some white voters in some of those newly gentrified neighborhoods like Cabbagetown, parts of Reynoldstown, etc.

Kevin Johnson has apparently been working hard as all hell to win this race, apparently personally canvassing every single home in the district. Expect him to win outright, though Michael McPherson could pull him into a runoff if his Cabbagetown base holds for him. McPherson also has good connections with the State Senators in the area (previously working for two of them) though I don't know if that will do much in terms of voter support. If black turnout is incredibly low McPherson could win, but I doubt it.

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This one is actually really interesting. Black majority district in central Clayton County (city of Forest Park) and there's practically nothing to be found about it in the print media or on the internet. Ron Dodson is a white guy that held the district from 1998 to 2006, and won legislator of the year once apparently. Shawn James is a black guy whose campaign is making no reference to his party affiliation. I'm assuming that Ron Dodson will cruise back into his old seat but depending on what's happening on the ground, anything could happen.

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Rural/suburbanish area just north of Colombus. Vance Smith resigned to take a seat on the state Transportation Commission. The biggest candidate looks to be his son, Kip Smith. The other candidates are two businessmen (Steve Earles and Jerry Luquire) and Former Representative Earl Davis, who held this seat from 1969-1974 (lol). This is a part of the state that's a bit behind the times- none of the candidates have anything on the internet, and most of the newspapers don't really have much in the way of a website either.

Because of that handicap I'm guessing this half-blind, but unless Kip's campaign has been blunderingly incompetent I assume he'll win convincingly.

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Purcell is from Pooler and held this seat until Carter kicked her out of it in 2004. Tyler is 25, the Vice Chairman of Georgia College Republicans, and has a lot of big campaign work experience. I assume Tyler will win but that depends on how much of Purcell's old base has stayed with her.

[Bacon King]

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This district is Baldwin County; Millidgeville. About 40% black. It's a college town so white voters are a bit less Republican than normal. I agree with you that this is the most interesting race.

Darrell Black is a white Democrat and a businessman. He's running TV ads, and I think is the only candidate doing so.

Angela Gheesling-McCommon is the director of the County Development Authority and the candidate the county Republican Party seems to be lining behind.

Casey Tucker is a 22 year old that just graduated and is running for office. Non-factor; at best he'll drain some of the conservative student vote away from Gheesling-McCommon.

But now, for Rusty Kidd. This guy's just awesome. For all four years of high school he was the starting quarterback at Baldwin High School, and a basketball player too. His father held this seat for a decade, served on the Baldwin County Commission, and then held the area's State Senate seat for thirty years (1962-1992). He's definitely got huge recognition in the district. Also, his sister was a Congresswoman known for being a feminist Republican.

He's been a state lobbyist since 1972, with a list on his website of all the different groups he's represented. Jimmy Carter called him "the most influential lobbyist in the state" once. He's also built an insurance agency in the Baldwin area from the ground up, which now has seventeen offices throughout Middle Georgia.

He has huge civic connections in the county as well, being on the board of the local Habitat for Humanity, Chairman of the state Special Olympics, and donates money to dozens of local causes. He even gave his own stand-up wheelchair to a Milledgeville barber that recently became paralyzed.

Oh yeah, wheelchair. About that: Kidd is paraplegic.



His policies are very well thought out, seems to have a strong following, and argues that because of his extensive personal connections from lobbying he will be effective and bipartisan without needing to tie himself to the less reputable elements of either party.

TELL ME YOU WOULDN'T VOTE FOR THIS GUY. JUST TRY IT.

badass epitomized

Honestly, though, I'm assuming this will be going to a runoff between two of the three "real" candidates, and it will be close. No idea about anything else but I'm definitely crossing my fingers for some awesome independent win here.

[Bacon King]

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

[Bacon King]

There was a special election for LA House district 93 yesterday. The two candidates that made the runoff are Helena Moreno, who in 2008 lost in the primary runoff against Bill Jefferson, and James Perry, who got fifth in the Mayor's race this year due to low name recognition but is actually a pretty decent candidate.

It's a majority-black district, so I think I can guess who's going to win there. There was also one in East Baton Rouge, which also resulted in a Dem-Dem runoff.

Hopefully; I will laugh at seeing Moreno lose a second time. She's one of the very few people in politics I have a legitimate personal distaste for. Still, she's throwing big money into the race, from what I hear...

[Bacon King]

Aw

[Bacon King]

The special election was (even in the short term) probably irrelevant regarding Republican control of the LA State Senate. Given another few months some conservative Democrat scared about redistricting would've switched parties to save his own seat, especially once the chamber actually started talking about redistricting.

[Bacon King]

I've been so out of the loop and not paying attention to local media and websites that I missed that my OWN State Senator resigned two weeks ago and announced her resignation in late June. Shame on me.

Don't sweat it. Last year, I didn't find out until I read it on the forum that my State Rep in New Orleans had switched parties; my response even got goldmined.