Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Torie]

Hey, there was one tonight. Continuing Kentucky's trend of bizarre special election results, a Democrat picked up the House seat of a Republican who won a special Senate election a month or two back.

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/exeres/CBFBFF75-CCC3-40E5-A221-0884DFEEB300.htm

Terry Mills (D) - 3,001 (54%)
Leo Johnson (R) - 2,518 (46%)

Are the legislative districts in KY a Dem gerrymander? It seems a bit too convenient that in this polarized district, there is this nice little built in Dem edge in a zone with very predictable voting patterns.

[Torie]

Something approaching the null set as to a competent bench is one of the problems that bedevils the GOP in California come to think of it.  California in some ways, is sort of the other side of the Texas coin for the GOP. On one side of the coin is Pubbie heaven, and on the other side is Pubbie hell.

[Torie]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

[Torie]

Good points BRTD, but in what other states other than perhaps uber Green Vermont do the Dems carry the upper middle class WASP vote; not that that particular cohort matters that much in Mass, but it kind of gives you the idea that it is a bit more than just where different kinds of folks are parked across the state, doesn't it?

Uh, New York? Look at Westchester County. Also true in suburban Philly, some places in Maryland and lots of places in Connecticut. I've never really managed to pin down the difference between the still Republican very affluent parts of Connecticut and latte liberal Dem areas though.

Maybe in Maryland in Montgomery County (Potomac?), but otherwise no. Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out. Interestingly, my vague impression is that both the upper middle class to rich WASP and Jews tend to avoid the upper middle class to rich heavily Catholic areas of Westchester, to wit Eastchester.

[Torie]

By plurality BRTD I meant a substantial minority. I misused the word! 

If you can find a poll of upper middle class WASPS let me know. A poll of Protestants won't cut it - even white Protestants. White Protestants are a rather variegated bunch in a host of ways.

[Torie]

Isn't this senate seat converted to a much safer Pub one under the new map?