Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like no one ever mentioned here, but apparently there was a special election for my old State Senate seat (District 24) back in Pennsylvania on Tuesday.  Sen. Rob Wonderling (R) left office to join the Greater Philly Chamber of Commerce.  The district is PVI neutral—Obama carried it by seven points.

Robert B. Mensch (R) 66.2%
Anne Henning Scheuring (D) 30.3%
Barbara Steever (L) 3.5%

Mensch was a State Rep, Scheuring was a councilor.  Mensch was favored; Democrats made an effort on behalf of Scheuring.

The PA Senate is once again 30R, 20D.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not much of an effort, it would seem.

You can only put so much lipstick on a pig, as it were.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Eh, I wouldn't read that much into some election for a house seat in the western suburbs of Oklahoma City.

The one in Tennessee is more important because it gives the GOP there a much more secure hold on the State House than before and GOP prospects to win the governorship in 2010 look pretty good right now (which would affect redistricting).

Let's see what happens in NJ and VA next month.  I have to say that Moderate's proposition that Jersey voters may CTA voting Republican in Assembly elections if they think Corzine will be re-elected is certainly not an unreasonable one.

I dont think most voters think that way.  Are voters going to vote Democratic in 2010 because they think there will likely be a Republican President in 2012?  I guess a more reasonable comparison would be Virginia voters electing a Democratic House of Delegates because they are certain that McDonnell will win. 

Perhaps it's not the exact way voters are thinking, however, it's important to note that it's not Corzine voters who are going to be hedging.  Corzine voters are pulling the Dem lever downballot at the same rate Christie voters are pulling the GOP lever downballot.

The key in these Assembly races are Daggett voters.  The PPP poll internals show that they prefer a generic Republican Assembly candidate over a Democrat by a margin of two to one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What the hell is happening to the Democratic party?  If Democrats do indeed lose the New Jersey Assembly, something is VERY, VERY wrong.  I havent seen a party get beat up this badly in an off year election since Watergate. 

Eh? Republicans held the NJ Assembly during this very decade. And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election. The Republicans could win the PV by as much as 8-10% and still fail to take the Assembly.

Not since redistricting they haven't.

But yeah, the deck is HEAVILY stacked in the Democrats' favor.  Republicans winning the Assembly hinges on the GOP taking seats that Obama probably won with about 70% of the vote.

What kind of seats did Republicans have to hold in the 1990's to keep a majority?  Were the district lines just very GOP favorable then?

District lines were much more favorable to the GOP, yes.  The 1990s lines are generally considered a GOP gerrymander; 2000s are a Dem gerrymander.  Even though both were technically drawn by independent commission.

Republicans scored 58 seats to Democrats' 22 in the 1991 anti-Florio superlandslide.  They slowly hemorrhaged the unholdable, intensely Democratic seats throughout the decade, but always had solid control.

Since redistricting, the main Dem pickups were in District 1 (Heavily GOP, but Republicans essentially handed Democrats these seats via a 2005 ballot-access signature snafu); District 3 (both longtime GOP incumbents retired during a good Dem year); District 4 (top GOP prospect this year, always "lean Dem" but made slightly more Dem through redistricting); District 22 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting); District 34 (shifted from toss-up to safe Dem via redistricting); District 36 (shifted from toss-up to strong Dem via redistricting); and District 38 (shifted from lean GOP to strong Dem via redistricting).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature page:

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Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately.  There's no party-line lever.


And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Senate District 6 was Adler's old district, it's pretty safely Democratic.
Senate District 23 was Lance's old district, it's pretty safely Republican.

If either flips, it'll be 6 due to the environment, but certainly if something happens there it'll be really ugly on the Assembly side.  Like, REALLY ugly.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And the chances of the Democrats actually losing control are essentially nil due to way seats are elected: only half of the seats are up for election.

You're mistaken there.  From the New Jersey Legislature's Our Legislature page:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Two State Assemblymen/women (in each odd year) and one State Senator (in years ending in "1", "3" or "7") are elected from each Legislative district.  Comparing both the 2007 primary and general election results for State Senate and General Assembly, normal "block voting" or "plurality at large" seems to be used for elections to the New Jersey General Assembly.  Interestingly though, two Assembly candidates can bracket themselves with each other.  Slogans are used in the primary to indicate ideology or who are the "regular" party candidates (presumably those endorsed by the local county committee).  I'm not sure if voters can vote for both candidates by checking one box of not, but they clearly don't have to as I see candidates bracketed with each other with different vote totals.  Perhaps a New Jersey forumite can explain how that works, and whether or not New Jersey has a "big box" or "one lever" voting option in the general election (Maine got rid of its big box in 1972).

Nope, you need to vote for each candidate separately.  There's no party-line lever.


And there are two Special Elections in New Jersey for the State Senate, though neither is competitive.

Senate District 6 was Adler's old district, it's pretty safely Democratic.
Senate District 23 was Lance's old district, it's pretty safely Republican.

If either flips, it'll be 6 due to the environment, but certainly if something happens there it'll be really ugly on the Assembly side.  Like, REALLY ugly.

Adler's seat is Cherry Hill, right?  Even Corzine will probably get at least 60% in that district. 

Yeah, Cherry Hill is the anchor of the seat. It's not Democratic enough for Corzine to get 60%, though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FWIW, a Democrat has already declared his candidacy for Scott Brown's State Senate seat.

Rep. Richard Ross would be the likely Republican candidate, and would presumably be favored in a special election situation.  Not sure if Republicans would be lucky enough for the timing to allow a special election for Ross's seat, but that'd be the ideal situation for them—not that a Wrentham-based seat should be especially competitive, especially in a year like 2010 with Patrick topping the ballot.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It appears that the special election to replace Sen. Scott Brown will be between State Rep. Lida Harkins (D-Needham) and Rep. Richard Ross (R-Wrentham). The date of the election will be set after Brown files his intention to resign his seat, which he has yet to do.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/28/wrentham_republican_seeks_browns_seat/

One would presume a small lean to Ross here considering the results of the 2004 special election that Brown won and the current political environment, but this seat was not specifically designed for a Republican and Harkins is likely to be a much better candidate than the hapless Angus McQuilken.

Republicans will hold only 4 of 40 State Senate seats once Brown goes to Washington. A loss by Republicans here, combined with a potential loss of State Sen. Tisei's seat in November (he is not seeking re-election, and is instead running for Lt. Governor) and State Sen. Hedlund's seat (if he runs for U.S. House) would be just depressing in terms of having two-party government in this state.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.  Not to mention that the Republican has been associated with those who deal in certain "tea" activities - makes it even more surprising considering the district.

Tea...bagging hookers?  That's not a disqualifier anymore.

I'd like to see a poll on the public perception of the "tea party movement." I presume that those of us in the know about politics have a much more negative opinion than the nation as a whole.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, I forgot to mention, the new state senator from NJ's 14th District is Tom Goodwin (R), who easily won a special election convention over former Assemblywoman Barbara Wright (R).

He'll face Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) in November.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is the first I heard that Bill Baroni had cashed in and left the legislature. That's disappointing.

He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He's the new Deputy Executive Director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

Disappointing? Yes. Related to his voting for gay marriage? Maybe.

You think Christie pulled him out of the legislature because he was unwhippable?

No, because the seat leans Democratic and Greenstein has the slight advantage in November. Baroni in that seat is an asset to the NJ GOP. I think Baroni left to escape a Republican primary campaign where all sorts of uncomfortable questions would come up about why he voted the way he did...

Which is sad, because he had been on track for a promising statewide career. Such is life when you're "one of the good ones."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You know, Massachusetts should really step into the 21st century and start numbering their districts.

I dunno, there's a special charm to living in the Thirty-fourth Middlesex.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mass Senate (Norfolk, Bristol, Middlesex) D primary:

Peter Smulowitz - 3,806 (50.9%)
Lida Harkins - 3,666 (49.1%)

Like whooooooah.

Yonder toss-up race just became Lean Republican.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would not bet on a Democrat in that district in this year, but from what I have seen on BMG and, more importantly, on RMG, the fact that Smulowitz is an appealing (if nerdy) candidate, working hard and with a good grass roots organization makes him a better candidate than Lida Harkins (as evidenced by him defeating her) in the general election. I haven't checked back with RMG in the last couple of days but they seem negative on Ross's energy level when they discussed it a few weeks ago.

Oh, I don't doubt that Democrats are better off with Smulowitz if he was able to defeat Harkins. I had simply presumed that Harkins would be much stronger than she turned out to be.

Smulowitz's problem is that he won the primary by going negative to the extent that Harkins is refusing to endorse him:

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In other words, "good luck with getting the numbers you need out of Needham." These are precisely the circumstances that lead to Republicans winning elections in seats about 10 to 20 points more Democratic than this one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Kind of odd, I don't have an exact map of the old Brown seat, but the general area doesn't look too Republican even by Massachusetts standards. I do know it is considered one of the safest GOP seats in Massachusetts though so I'm interested in a map.

The southern half is solidly Republican. The northern half is more Democratic, but the most Democratic town (Needham) went to Ross because the Dem savaged the state Rep. from that town in the primary and then she all but endorsed the Republican. (He was from there, too, but not a political veteran like her.) That was far from making the difference in the outcome, but it didn't help.

The southern tip was stunningly Republican in this election.

In Wrentham, Ross won 86% of the vote, 1897 - 308. Eighty-six percent.

Ross got 81.2% in Plainville, 78.6% in North Attleboro, and 77.9% in Norfolk.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The full town-by-town results: http://www.redmassgroup.com/diary/8405/unofficial-results-have-ross-win-at-62

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't think it's been scheduled yet, but I believe there will be a special election for Rep. Richard Ross's (R) seat now that he's been elected to the State Senate.

Massachusetts' Ninth Norfolk district is indeed a rare breed: It's a McCain district.

    * McCain 10,830 (49.18%)
    * Obama 10,794 (49.02%)
    * Other 397 (1.80%)

I presume the front runner for the seat is Norfolk Town Moderator Dan Winslow. He also served as Chief Legal Council for Governor Mitt Romney.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember that State House race here in Massachusetts where the Republican defeated a Democratic incumbent by 1 vote? Well, a judge ruled that a discarded ballot should be counted, giving us a 6,587 to 6,587 tie.

It's now up to the State House to decide how to break the tie. The expected route is for a re-vote rather than run-off, and the Secretary of State seems to believe it should be open to all candidates, not just Rep. Alicea (D) and Peter Durant (R).

A date has yet to be set.

http://www.telegram.com/article/20110202/NEWS/110209920/1116

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Another fishy late shift in a Louisiana election.  The same thing happened in LA-04 two years ago.

Fishy?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FWIW, Gov. Malloy has conceded that the GOP will win "some" of the seats up for election. Republicans have some good candidates in seats, so it'd seem the planets are aligning, so to speak.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In the conclusion to perhaps the last outstanding race of 2010, Republican Peter Durant won a special election tonight to resolve the tie between him and incumbent Rep. Geraldo Alicea.

Not sure of the exact numbers, but Redmassgroup is reporting a 55-vote victory margin.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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One of the interesting results of the 2010 elections here in Massachusetts were the tremendous (relatively) Republican gains in the State House. It's notable that the GOP did not clean up in marginal seats; instead, the GOP defeated incumbents and won open seats in areas that are heavily conservative (by Massachusetts standards). The Alicea seat in particular represents some fairly Republican territory -- Patrick won between 30 and 34 percent of the vote in every town that composes the district save for Southbridge, which he won by a 46–40 margin. Granted, Southbridge is the biggest town in the district, but still, it's a Baker-Brown district.

Historically, given the absence of an incumbent, Democrats have had the ability to play anywhere in the state -- few seats, if any, were truly "safe Republican." (It is quite possible for Democrats to someday rule the State Senate by a 40-0 margin.) The house seats Republicans took last year are quite holdable (given the powerful incumbency edge in MA), but the question remains: Was 2010 a fluke, or are Massachusetts conservatives getting more partisan?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe, but low-turnout special elections mean nothing in this regard (especially when the result is so close to the 2010 result, would be different if Durant won 60% of the vote or something).

Well, Alicea is an incumbent, after all, and incumbents simply don't lose general elections in this state.