Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[cinyc]

Bye Bye Tim Bishop?

Possibly.  John Hall would need to watch out too if these results were to translate.

More importantly, however, if the results do translate to the 2010 midterms, Dems would probably be under severe pressure to maintain control of the State Senate.

Anyway, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here - these are only special elections.

The 89th AD special election and recent Westchester County Exec results really don't bode well for John Hall.  NY-19 is a traditionally Republican district, despite voting for Obama in the last election.  Hall's a two-termer who could easily lose in an election that doesn't favor Democrats (it needn't even be a really strong wave, if you ask me).  It should be on everyone's watch list, even though the best Republican candidate for the district, Assemblyman Greg Ball, decided to run for State Senate instead of NY-19.

Some of the 89th is in NY-18, but the northern parts are in NY-19.

[cinyc]

The northern parts are really Democratic, though (New Castle Town/Chappaqua and environs). The southern parts are where the Republicans are (except in White Plains, of course). Without the special election results, it's hard to say, but I imagine most of the swing happened in Nita Lowey's district, not Hall's.

Not really.  The only part of AD-89 that's overwhelmingly Democratic is White Plains, which is in NY-18.  You might be right about a swing there, but only because the prior Assemblyman stepped down to become mayor of White Plains, while the Democratic candidate in the special election was from Katonah, in NY-19.  Note that the most urban parts of White Plains (read: the most minority and Democratic) appear not to be in AD-89, though.

Harrison in NY-18 is the most Republican part of AD-89.  The town went to the Republican for County Exec by a 2-1 margin.  (The Republican won that race roughly 57-43.)

New Castle Town/Chappaqua is actually in NY-18, not Hall's district.  So is North Castle, on the Connecticut border.  New Castle is fairly marginal to slightly Democratic - it went about 53-47 to the Republican in the county exec race.   North Castle went just slightly less to that Republican than Harrison, and thus has a strong Republican tilt.

The NY-19 towns/villages in AD-89 are Mount Kisco, Bedford, Pound Ridge and Lewisboro.   Mount Kisco leans Democratic compared the rest of the county - the Republican County Exec candidate barely won it 51-49.  But Bedford went about 56-44 to the Republican in the County Exec race, while both Lewisboro and Pound Ridge went about 58-42 to the Republican.  Except for Mount Kisco, the NY-19 towns are hardly Democrat strongholds - they're pretty much in line with the rest of the county, if the County Exec race is any indication.  Outside of the train station hamlets, the three towns are largely horse country full of minimum 4-acre zoned lots.

[cinyc]

New Castle must have had a massive swing from the Presidential election in the county exec race, then--it went for Obama 70-29. Mt Kisco was only 64-34 Obama.

No idea on the rest, really. I was just going by the 2008 numbers, not the 2009 ones.

The 2008 results by town:

New Castle: 70-29 Obama
White Plains: 69-30 Obama (including the more Democratic parts at the north and west not in the district; without them, it's more like 61-38)
Mt Kisco: 64-34 Obama
Bedford: 61-38 Obama
Pound Ridge: 61-38 Obama
Lewisboro: 59-40 Obama
North Castle: 53-46 Obama
Harrison: 50-49 McCain

In 2008, at least, the Democrats were in the north. The two southern towns (other than White Plains) were the two most Republican.

Obama won the county 63-36.  So just like in the 2009 County Exec race, the four NY-19 towns were about average for the county, with Mount Kisco slightly more Democratic and Lewisboro slightly more Republican.  Harrison and North Castle in NY-18 are Republican strongholds relative to the rest of the county.  Of the other two NY-18 municipalities, White Plains in NY-18 leans more Democratic than the county (though your AD-89 guestimate suggests the AD-89 part is about average); New Castle went more strongly Democratic in the Presidential race than in the County Exec race.  Perhaps that's because the Republican in the county exec race was from neighboring Mount Pleasant.

I don't know where the NY-19 towns rank relative to the rest of NY-19 (probably more Democratic than average), but a Republican winning the district can't bode well for John Hall - he's in for a fight.

[cinyc]

Where are SD-13 and HD-101 located?

SD-13: Part of Cheshire, Meriden, Middlefield, part of Middletown (I-91/691 Corridor in between New Haven and Hartford)
HD-101: Part of Guilford, Madison (Shoreline, east of New Haven)

If WTNH's breakdown is correct, votes on the Working Families Party line put the Democrat over the top in HD-99 (Part of East Haven)

[cinyc]

New York will have four special elections for Assembly at a time yet undetermined next year - two currently held by Democrats who won local elective offices in Buffalo and Yonkers, and two held by Republicans representing districts from Dutchess County and environs.  One of the Dutchess County elections is due to the Assemblyman being elected County Executive; the other is due to death.  The deceased Assemblyman Kirwin only won by 15 votes in the 2010 election.

[cinyc]

Governor Cuomo announced today that New York will hold special elections to fill the 4 vacant Assembly seats and 1 vacant State Senate seat on March 20.

The vacant Assembly seats are in the Buffalo area (including part of the city), Yonkers, Dutchess/Orange/Ulster counties and Dutchess/Columbia counties.  The vacant State Senate seat is Kruger's seat in Brooklyn.