Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[CARLHAYDEN]

Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.

[CARLHAYDEN]

There are a number of special elections in progress (candidates nominated) or completed but not yet certified.   Will be posting information about those certified soon.  However, when checking the certified results, I found a really interesting result fo New York's 77th Assembly district.  That is a third world district where the Democrat won 71 to 74 per cent of the vote (depending upon whether you include the second line on the ballot), but the Conservative party candidate trounced the Republican candidate (by a factor of more than five to one).

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, its nice to see you posting again.

Second, very insightful post.

[CARLHAYDEN]

While occassionally a special election for a state/local office may be significant in and of itself, it seems to me that it is often more important as an indicator of change.

As such, would appreciate it if the results of the previous election for that office were posted so that readers can discern trends.

[CARLHAYDEN]

California Assembly District 72

2008

Michael D. Mike Duvall (R) 79,066 votes (54.8%)
John MacMurray (D) 65,216 votes (45.2%)

2010 special

Chris Norby (R) 21,406 votes (62.7%) (+7.9%)
John MacMurray (D) 10,622 votes (31.1%) (-14.1%)
Jane Rands (G) 2,100 votes (6.2%) (+6.2%)

New Hampshire State Assembly Rockingham Eighth District

2008
7 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Norman L. Major (R) 6,218 votes (12.22%)
Roger G. Wells (R) 5,594 votes (10.99%)
David A. Welsh (R) 5,550 votes (10.91%)
Don Van Patten (R) 5,281 votes (10.38%)
John W. Flanders, Sr. (R) 5,041 votes (9.91%)
John B. Sedensky (R) 5,037 votes (9.90%)
Melissa L.B. Lyons (D) 4,910 votes (9.65%)
Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 4,898 votes (9.63%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 4,432 votes (8.71%)
Joel Saren (D) 3,893 votes (7.65%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

Republican Candidates 37,619 votes (73.93%)
Democrat Candidates 13,235 votes (26.01%)
Others 29 votes (0.06%)

2010 special election

Kenneth L. Weyler (R) 1,005 votes (77.79%) (+3.86%)
Norman R. Hurley (D) 287 votes (22.21%) (-3.80%)


New Hampshire State Assembly Sullivan Second District

2008
3 persons are elected (yes, I know, it is awkward)

Beverly T. Rodeschin (R) 2,608 votes (20.59%)
Anthony Maiola (R) 2,446 votes (19.31%)
Thomas J. Howard (R) 1,984 votes (15.67%)
Arthur G. Jillette, Jr. (D) 1,949 votes (15.39%)
John? Bell (D) 1,888 votes (14.91%)
Peter Franklin (D) 1,784 votes (14.09%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

Republican Candidates 7,038 votes (55.57%)
Democrat Candidates 5,621 votes (44.39%)
Others 5 votes (0.04%)

2010 special election

Steve Cunningham (R) 616 votes (65.88%) (+10.31%)
Arthur G. Gillette, Jr. (D) 319 votes (34.12%) (-10.27%)

Special elections in State Senate District 16 on February 16 and State Assembly Coos Second District on March 9.

Thanks for the data.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Apparently there was a special election for the 38th Assembly district in New York during Tuesday's primary. Here are the results:

Michael Miller (D) - 2,730 (64.55%)
Donna Marie Caltabiano (R) - 1,499 (35.45%)

Here's hoping Mr. Miller's career doesn't end as ignominiously as his predecessor's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/nyregion/25fraud.html

Thanks for the post.

Now, to put things in context.

In 2008 the Democrat nominee for this seat received more than three times the number of votes that the Republican nominee received, whereas in the special election this year, the Democrat nominee did not receive quite twice as many votes as the Republican nominee.

Well, in safe Democrat districts you can get away with such losses, but, in competitive districts, such loses can be disasterous.

ROFL

Have you not learned anything from trying to analyze these special election results CARL? THEY'RE IRRELEVANT. ALL OF THEM.

Irrelevant?!?

Hmm.

As our British posters could tell you, special elections are closely studied as harbingers of future elections.

What happened in the special elections seems to have been validated in the general elections this year.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

[CARLHAYDEN]

CARL, you're the only poster on this site that could take two months to respond to a post and have it still not make any sense. Congrats.

You really should learn to check dates.

Oh ok, a year and two months and your post still doesn't make any sense. Further congratulations.

Well, we've made some progress, so I'll try to use a very simple explanation as you still don't understand.

The poster to whom I responded asserted the special elections are meaningless.

I have previously noted that they frequently provide advance warning of what will happen in general elections.

As I noted in the response to which he responded, there was a well developed gtrend toward Republicans.

If you check, you will find the Republicans made massive gains in the state legislative elections in the general election in 2010.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think this gives Republicans a 27 to 25 edge in the MS State Senate.

It's tied, but it doesn't really matter as there was a de facto Republican majority supported by some Democrats. Either way, there will probably be a few party switchers now.

Correct!

However, I suspect the most party changing this year will be in the State Senate.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Another party switcher in the South:

As of Feb 17th, Republicans control the Mississippi State Senate 27R - 24D - 1Vacancy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ezell_Lee

Also of possible interest, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_State_Senate

Re: 3 elected Mississippi Democrats switch to GOP
« Reply #3 on: December 29, 2010, 02:00:45 am »    

This is just the start.

With election in 2011, expect more Mississippi elected elected officials to jump off the sinking ship of the Democratic party.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

Since Nov 2010, the GOP gained majorities in five legislatures, and the Democrats none:the Lousiana House by party switches, the Lousiana Senate by special elections, the Mississippi Senate by party switches, the Mississippi House on election day, and the Virginia Senate on election day. In one year, that's a switch from a 5-1 advantage, to a 1-5 disadvantage.

It must have been a pretty painful year for partisan Democrats to watch!

What is so hillarious is the Democrats are bragging about winning a vote on one issue is Ohio (they lost on the healthcare issue in the same election in Ohio), while ignoring what happened around the mation.