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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)  (Read 136859 times)
Mississippi Political Freak
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« on: February 20, 2011, 09:32:17 am »

From the results of Louisiana's SD-26 Special election, I'd like to raise a few questions on the voting behaviors of Louisiana's Cajuns:

1. It seems the tactic by the GOP campaign team tarring the Dem candidate through alleged association of his campaign manager with OFA (Organizing for America) works superbly in this race.  I just wonder why why President Obama is so toxic among Cajuns?

2. Why are Cajuns trending sharply to the GOP?  Is it heavily about their anti-abortion beliefs?

3. My impression is that Cajuns are historically populist on economic issues.  Are they trending more pro-business instead, and why?

Thanks!
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2011, 10:16:32 am »

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2011, 04:45:23 pm »

At least Louisiana (especially the Cajuns) still voted Democratic throughout the 1990's.  And we cannot easily lump Cajuns with other Southerners of the Anglo-Scottish ancestry.

Not when the candidate was black. This map is from 1995:



That's what happens when a black runs in Cajun country.

So do you imply that Cajuns can be rather racist folks in terms of their voting behavior?  Thanks!
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2011, 09:02:38 pm »

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

Yep - which means that the goal of the State Republican party should be to eliminate Democrats from all levels of government (down to dogcatcher) while the opportunity is ripe. 

Witness what the Texas Republican part did in 2010.  They were helped by the straight-ticket, but basically what they did was emphasize voting straight-ticket Republican to all rural county voters.  As a result, any Democrat at any level of office in one of these rural counties who was not opposed got defeated, and a number of other Democrats got scared and switched after the elections.  This prevents local Democrats from rising up the ranks to get State Rep seats (as they have in the past) and possibly further, should the time be ripe.  I have to assume that 2012 and if necessary 2014 will be a continuation of that strategy if available.

It's so sad that electoral politics these days seems to be more about political domination through the destruction of the opposing party than positive advocacy for the platforms of a candidate's own party. 

I have the question though, why are the state-level Republicans seems to be more power-hungry and less concerned about governance and more preoccupied by political dominance than their Democratic compatriots?

As another side-note stemming from this response, after seeing through the promotion of straight-ticket voting by the Texas GOP, I really find it deplorable to allow voters to vote straight-ticket under any circumstances, as this provides a convenient excuse for voters to place partisanship over the merits of individual candidates and whether they are better fits to particular positions.  This is a blatant insult to the ideals of democracy, under which voter are supposed to make well-informed choices.  I therefore strongly recommend straight ticket should be abolished nationally. 
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #4 on: March 08, 2011, 10:57:16 pm »

Republican blowout in TN State SD 18 in a race that was supposed to be close:
Kerry Roberts - R 8,827
Ken Wilber - D 4,316

Hi!  The Dem candidate being a local elected official doesn't mean that the race will be necessarily close.  It also depends on the political makeup of the district, as SD-18 in Tennessee seems to be consist of Nashville suburbs like Gallatin and Hendersonville which are trending sharply to the right.  Also Mayor Ken Wilber's fiscal stewardship is under prominent scrutiny.  Finally, the GOP candidate has a slightly larger geographical base to work from (Springfield in Robertson County vs. Portland in Sumner County).  Together with a friendly territory, Robert's victory isn't really a surprise.  This is my two cents on the race from a decidedly non-local perspective.
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #5 on: March 08, 2011, 11:21:43 pm »

Not sure if this counts as a hold or a pickup, but a Republican won a House seat in Arkansas 60-40. The reason I say that is it was held by a term-limited Democrat, then won by a Republican who died before the election last year. That puts the Arkansas House at 54-45 with one vacancy (a Dem seat).

I would say is a GOP 'hold' of a posthumous pickup.  According to left-leaning blog sources from Arkansas quoted by the Swing State Project, the race has become extremely negative, as Garland County (Hot Spring)'s GOP Committee was sending mailers attacking the Dem candidate Jerry Rephan as a "pro-abortion Jewish" while advocating for the candidacy of the "Christian" GOP candidate Bruce Cozart. 

While the Dem seemed to be at least a semi-serious candidate judging by the presence of a more sophisticated campaign website compared to Cozart's profile under Garland County's GOP Committee website; I must grudging agree that the attack mailer is a masterstroke by the GOP, as it seems to appeal to demographic affinity if not the strong pro-life sentiment of the district.   

From my limited knowledge on the district, Arkansas' HD-24 is anchored at Hot Springs, and that area seems to be pretty homogeneous (majority-white) and heavily Christian (or even evangelical); making a liberal, Jewish-sounding Dem candidate really unappealing to the locals.  In low information local (and rural) campaigns like this and Louisiana's SD-26 special a few weekends ago, tarring an opponent to something foreign to the local traditions or someone unpopular with them is a highly effective campaign tatic.  IMHO, it is also an extremely deplorable use of the us-vs-them mentality in electoral politics.
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Mississippi Political Freak
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« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2011, 09:03:09 pm »

In Pennsylvania's State Senate SD-11 special election,  it's a 58-42 Democratic hold according to  http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=12&ElectionID=42 (From Pa. Department of State).
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