Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[BigSkyBob]

Iowa democratic State Senator resigns to take position in Branstad administration.

http://theiowarepublican.com/2011/branstad%E2%80%99s-appointment-of-dandekar-puts-iowa-senate-in-play/


The chamber is, now, 25D-24R. If the Republicans win, it's a tie. This will be the second special election for control of a state Senate this cycle.

[BigSkyBob]

Been checking numbers, and it appears that as a result of the November 2011 elections, both houses of the Mississippi state legislature went from Democrat controlled to Republican controlled while in Lousiana and Virginia (where each party previously controlled one of the houses of the state legislature), Republicans won control of both houses.

Yes, I know the Democrats won a couple of special state legislative races around the country, but I don't know of any legislature (or house thereof) which flipped to Democrat control in 2011.

Does anyone else?

If so, please specify state, which house(s), and a link.

Thank you.

Since Nov 2010, the GOP gained majorities in five legislatures, and the Democrats none:the Lousiana House by party switches, the Lousiana Senate by special elections, the Mississippi Senate by party switches, the Mississippi House on election day, and the Virginia Senate on election day. In one year, that's a switch from a 5-1 advantage, to a 1-5 disadvantage.

It must have been a pretty painful year for partisan Democrats to watch!

[BigSkyBob]

Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.

[BigSkyBob]

Only partisan Democrats would be the ones crying over losing legislatures in the deep south, yes.

Then, it must really have hurt to watch the GOP pick up both chambers in New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, the Houses in Pennsylvania, Colorado and Ohio, and the Senate in New York. The last one must have really caused some consternation. Fortunately, the loss of both chambers in North Carolina wasn't that bad since it is part of the South.

There was no excuse for Democrats to lose the New York Senate.  This was caused by a Democratic incumbent losing in a 77% Obama district. 

Then, it must of have doubly sucked.

[BigSkyBob]

I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.

I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.

[BigSkyBob]

I don't think the second most McCain district was as close percentage wise to him than that district to Obama. Do you have the numbers?

He's talking about Dov Hikind's Assembly district, which is totally irrelevant to the discussion but was extremely strong for McCain, like 70% or so. Of course, Presidential vote is meaningless in that part of the world.

I think he is talking about Carl Kruger's state senate seat.

He's not; that seat is fairly Republican but far from the second-most Republican in the state. It's maybe R+5 or so.

no I was talking about Kruger (the reason Republicans do so bad here is because they never put anyone up (the incumbent R district leader of one the AD in this SD even got a very well known democratic blogger endorsement in his primary race))

here are the NY state senate districts in order of most pro McCain

                           Obama     McCain
Lanza                  38.54%    60.82%
Kruger               44.62%    54.75%
Volker            44.63%    53.80%
Young            45.65%    52.64%
Maziarz            46.85%    51.59%
Flanagan             48.49%    51.15%
Golden               48.88%    50.35%
Griffo            48.79%    49.64%
Seward            48.95%    49.28%
Nozzolio            49.66%    48.85%
Aubertine        49.75%    48.75%
Ranzenhofer        50.44%    48.09%
Hugh Farley        50.48%    47.61%
Winner           51.25%    47.42%
Libous            51.07%    47.27%
Morahan           52.08%    47.25%
Marcellino            52.35%    47.20%
Skelos                52.10%    47.17%
Leibell            52.37%    46.69%
LaValle                 53.40%    46.55%
O. Johnson           52.87%    46.30%
Larkin            53.13%    45.77%
McDonald        52.96%    45.38%
Foley               54.69%    44.84%
Fuschillo               55.39%    43.92%
Saland            54.84%    43.89%
Little            54.64%    43.81%
C. Johnson          55.55%    43.74%
Hannon               55.69%    43.61%
Alesi            55.36%    43.45%
Bonacic            56.39%    42.07%
DeFrancisco        56.08%    41.98%
Stachowski        56.30%    41.92%
Valesky            58.46%    39.83%
Addabbo             61.26%    38.01%
Klein             62.26%    37.06%
Padavan               62.59%    36.65%
Stewart-Cousins    64.17%    35.07%
Oppenheimer        64.79%    34.44%
Breslin            63.85%    34.39%
Stavisky               65.01%    34.21%
Robach            65.85%    33.01%
Savino              66.65%    32.67%
Krueger              75.49%    23.75%
Thompson        76.71%    22.06%

That one was an embarassing one to lose!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[BigSkyBob]

State Senate District 59
Republican    BEN SCHWANKE    824   19.28   
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    KARI DZIEDZIC    3393   79.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    56   1.31

*yawn*

State Representative District 61B
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    SUSAN ALLEN    1155   55.96   
Respect    NATHAN BLUMENSHINE    896   43.41   
Write-In    WRITE-IN**    13   0.63

Good showing by Blumenshine. He actually two precincts, one in a landslide, and tied another. Unsurprisingly he did best in the white areas, Allen won the minority areas.

Is this a sign of "racially polarized voting" within the Democratic primary?

[BigSkyBob]

Per Daily Politics and Celeste Katz, the NYC Board of Elections has the unofficial total for 100% of precincts at Storobin +120, 10756 to 10636.  AP now matches this.

Also, per Board of Elections, 1194 absentees were returned, 437 were invalid, 757 were valid.  2090 were issued in total.  At any rate, we won't know a winner on this one tonight.

Right now, the margin would be just outside that of a mandatory recount, fyi.

Where is NY Jew now?

Of the 757, how many do you expect to successfully challenged by either campaign before they are opened and counted?

[BigSkyBob]

Storobin ahead by 27 votes going into hand recount of ballots:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/14/david-storobin-now-leads-by-24/

[BigSkyBob]

Storobin(R) wins:

http://politicker.com/2012/05/david-storobin-wins-epic-state-senate-race/

Lightening strikes twice in Brooklyn!