Special state legislative elections thread (see OP for results/upcoming races)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There was no Republican candidate in NY-38 in 2008. Perhaps Seminerio had the Republican line as well or something. Anyway. Really low turnout - Obama polled over 21,000 in the district and even McCain managed over 8,000. So a low turnout by-election in a safe Democratic district in Queens (yes, I think this area (if I'm remembering where it is right) might have had a GOP State Senator and City Councillor within the past decade or so, but that would have been nowt more than a hangover from the Queens of thirty years ago) with a solid Democratic % and a fairly respectable (for the district) Republican one. Meh. Tells us very little about anything, really.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another to file in the annals of NM weird elections.  (Al will love this one) 

Richard Berry defeats incumbent Marty Chavez for Albuquerque Mayor.  Helped, of course, by Richard Romero stealing some votes (though those votes may have gone for Berry otherwise, given Romero's campaign was basically anti-Chavez).

Chavez, much like Bloomberg, overturned the term-limits law to run for a fourth-term.  Berry is a Republican (and quite conservative at that).  Chavez is a Dem (pro-business is the left's major complaint).  Romero is a Dem too (for those who don't know NM politics), though Romero used to be a Republican.

With 93% in (40% needed to avoid runoff)
Richard Berry 43%
Marty Chavez (i) 35%
Richard Romero 21%

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S1178683.shtml?cat=500

Haha, yes. I just put a thread up on it before reading this one. I wonder what Romero's base looked like this election - might ask Nate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bloomberg is trying to give Obama political capital in the healthcare fight in exchange for Obama not endorsing Thompson

If Bloomberg thinks that will help in any ways towards re-election, then he really is tone-deaf politically.  The minorities will return to the minority candidate in NYC elections no matter what the polls say or what Obama does (see 2005).

Of course, Marty Chavez was also tone-deaf politically.

I dont know.  Didnt Bloomberg get a significant number of black votes in 2005?

He won't in an election in which the Democratic candidate is black. Aren't municipal voting patterns in New York wonderful?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Republicans hold SD-14.

Edit: That's a ridiculous overreaction.

Especially as they've picked up one (or was it two?) seats in Kentucky in other special elections this year. Where in Kentucky bist this seat? Numbers can confuse me, especially when tired.

Central KY, southeast of Louisville.

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/GIS/Senate%20Simple/s014s.pdf

Ah, right. Pretty mixed area. Now, I think I do know where the State House seat the Democrats lost is (Lewis county, Carter county... maybe some other areas), and... no, that's not a surprise (or shouldn't be). Perhaps reasons to be concerned at the margin, though, hey turnout at below 20%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The result in the 3rd is very surprising to me, just FYI - go look up the history on that seat since the mid-1990s.

Ah, so its that district. You might want to stretch that back a little... say, to the early 70s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think his point may have been 'by 30'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm pretty sure good years aren't going to be happening for Democrats in Louisiana anytime soon.

Not until... you know.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those precincts that you think are upper middle class WASP have a heavy Jewish plurality. So you need to cull those folks out.

Think you might want to consider rephrasing that, slightly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice site Lunar.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well I for one am quite sure that there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those photographs.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who cares anyway? The real battle over who controls the senate was given during redistricting and there Cuomo screwed royally his fellow Democrats.

I think most would agree it's more likely than not the Democrats take the Senate before the end of the decade even under the current map.

Never ever underestimate the power of the NY State Senate Democrats to screw everything up.

You only need to remember how they let it slip from them in 2010 for that, really...