VA: SUSA: McDonnell's lead shrinks a tad

[Rowan]

Virginia Gov(SUSA)

McDonnell 54%
Deeds 42%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4e0f2656-897c-4563-ad57-f90f052c9033

[Dan the Roman]

Thats a very Republican heavy sample, see the 7 point McCain win.  Possible in the current environment, but an absolute worse case scenario if Obama is below 40%.

Adjusted to the 2008 results you get

McDonnell 49%
Deeds       48%

Almost exactly a tie.

[Smash255]

Turnout will of course be much lower and a bit different than 08, but 08 vote of McCain 51%, Obama 44%?  LMAO

[Rowan]

Turnout will of course be much lower and a bit different than 08, but 08 vote of McCain 51%, Obama 44%?  LMAO

PPP has it as a McCain +4 sample.

[xavier110]

All the age group results make sense, except for the 35-49s. Why would Deeds perform much better with the 65+ group than them?

[Dan the Roman]

Turnout will of course be much lower and a bit different than 08, but 08 vote of McCain 51%, Obama 44%?  LMAO

PPP has it as a McCain +4 sample.

Oh I have no doubt it will be more Republican than 2008, and McCain voters probably would outnumber Obama voters slightly if it was held now.

I have the same concerns however over these polls that many had with the Obama up 13 or 14, or Democrats up 18 on the generic ballot last year.  August has been a disasterious month for the Democrats, focus on the election is low, and many are protesting Obama dropping a public option. My question to these pollster would be, not that they should stop using likely voter models, but that they should at least stop and ask what is plausible. I think McCain +1 or +2 might happen. I doubt in November it will be +4 or +7.

The other problem is what I am interested in right now is how the thesis story is effecting the race. In order to measure that I need samples that are roughly comparable, and the unstable likely voter screens are making that impossible. We now have to wait until the next round of polls to make measurements.

[Nhoj]

I think we can gather one thing from recent Va polls and that is that deeds has about 42% support right now.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

McDonnell isn't going to get 18% of blacks, or 52% of females, or 47% of the Northeast vote.

[War on Want]

Yeah SUSA is not the most reliable pollster. I'd say this is a few points more towards Deeds but what matters is the overall trend, not the specific numbers. It looks like Deeds' campaign is finally picking up momentum.

[Rowan]

Yeah SUSA is not the most reliable pollster. I'd say this is a few points more towards Deeds but what matters is the overall trend, not the specific numbers. It looks like Deeds' campaign is finally picking up momentum.

SUSA was the most accurate in 2008...

[Eraserhead]

Okay, so it's still pretty tough to see McDonnell losing this.

[YankeeFan007]

Yeah SUSA is not the most reliable pollster. I'd say this is a few points more towards Deeds but what matters is the overall trend, not the specific numbers. It looks like Deeds' campaign is finally picking up momentum.

SUSA was the most accurate in 2008...

I thought Republicans thought Rasmussen was the most accurate?  What happened?  Are they not showing the largest lead for a Republican anymore?