India elections

[jaichind]

I am afraid that NDA at this stage will surge to victory in 2004.  I feel that BJP and INC are evenly matched but the distribution of BJP and INC support hurts INC.  INC strength tends to be spread across India, while the BJP is strong in the Hindi heartland and weak in the South.  This actually helps the BJP in alliance making.  Its strength in places like UP and Bihar makes it possible that if it just ropes in a few allies it could surge to victory in this first-past-the-post system.  The rise of BSP in the North also hurts the INC who traditionally votes INC.  The BJP is weak in the South so it has NO CHANCE of winning unless it attaches itself to some reginal party, like BJD in Orissa, DMK/AIADMK in TN, TDP in AP, and JD(U) in KT.    INC, on the other hand, are strong in the South.  But it is strong enough to make a bid for power on its own but not strong enough to stop an alliance of the BJP and a reginal party.  It is in the regional party's intrest to ally with BJP as if they do not hand togeather they hang seperately.  

I think in UP next year it is a no-win for INC.  If it makes an alliance with BSP, then BJP and SP will make a de facto alliance and surge to victory.  If it goes it alone, BJP, BSP and SP will split the seats.  If it makes an alliance with SP, that would anger the BSP which in turn could hurt INC in other states, like MP, Rajastan, Gujarat and so on where the the anti-BJP vote will be split and throw the elections to the BJP.  

[jaichind]

Problem with an INC-Left Front alliance is that it might not work on the ground.  Left Front (mostly CPM and CPI) only strong in Tipura, West Bengal, and Kerela.  In all three cases their main rival in the staet is the INC.  In WB, it is reall a three cornered contest with the Left Front, INC, and BJP-AITC.  In all three states the local INC would not accept any accomodation with their longtime rival, the Left.  This makes allaince making very difficult.  I guess In WB it is possible the Left Front and INC can form an alliance but the INC splinter AITC has been in the decline and INC had hoped to rope it back into the mother party.  The AITC is very hostile to Left Front so again at the local level it is difficult.

Simply put, for an alliance to work, it would involve support by the Left Front for INC in all states where it is marginal.  In return, Left Front would obviously demand that INC support it in the three states mentioned.  Local INC activitists would oppose that and if a deal is made over their head they might defect to BJP.  Truely between a rock and a hard place.

[jaichind]

anyone tell me the reason for this anti-BJP sentiment?

Even though my views are to the Right I am very hostile to the BJP and prefer the center-left INC or even the Left Front in India.  This is because of the BJP's Hindu extremist nature.  One example is what happend to Gujurat a couple of years ago.  An incompent BJP state government was clearly head toward defeat.  But the BJP led by Modi wipped up a pogram targeted at the Muslims that lead to the death of several thousand innocent n Gujurat, mostly Muslims.  That the Modi and his BJP goons would kill several thousands people just to win an election just makes me sick.  BTW, it worked.  A year ago the BJP won in a landslide based on the anti-Moslim riots.  It captured about 125 out of 180 seats.  It is intresting to note that the about 100 districts affected by riots the BJP won nearly all of them.  It only won about 25 of the 80 some seats not affected by the riots.  Projecting these results it is clear that the BJP would have been ousted if it was not for the anti-Mulsim riots.
Truely a record to be shameful of.

[jaichind]

Breaking news.  In Tamil Nadu, the DMK has left the NDA and its ministers in the NDA government has resigned.  This could lead to realignments ahead of the 2004 Lok Shaba election in Tamil Nadu.  Now there could be a DMK-INC-Left Front alliance in the 2004 polls.  This also could lead to an alliance of the ruling AIADMK and the BJP.  Of course, given the ego of AIADMK supermo Jayalalitha, she might not want to give any significant number of seats to the BJP and the election in TN might turn into a three-way race with BJP way behind.  MDMK might back BJP but its appeal is limited in TN.  Both Jayalalitha of AIADMK in TN and Yadav of SP in UP think/hope that the election in 2004 will result in neither the NDA nor INC-led bloc with a majority.  In which the AIADMK or SP could be kingmaker with the prospect of Jayalalitha or Yadav becoming PM, or so they hope.  This means both SP and AIADMK would want to contest the maximum number of seats in UP and TN and hopefully win enough chips at the post-election horse trading table.  

Under this logic, AIADMK might not want to give BJP and seats and the election in TN will mostly be a battle between DMK-INC-Left Front and AIADMK.  This does provide a ray of hope to INC which is sad shape after losing three of four assembly election in what many calls the election "playoffs" before next years "finals" of the Lok Shaba polls.  

[jaichind]

A ray of hope for INC.

In Tamil Nadu a powerful front of DMK, MDMK, PMK, INC, CPM, and CPI seems to have been formed.  BJP now stands alone in TN and will have to align with AIADMK.  AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha already said that it will contest at least 33 of 39 TN seats.  BJP might have to accept such terms less it gets wiped out in TN.  Even if a AIADMK-BJP front is formed most likely it will be no match for the new DMK-led front.

NCP is moving closer to a INC-NCP alliance in Maharastra and avoid a repeat of 1999 when BJP-Shiv Shiva swept the polls there due to the split of the INC and NCP.

In critial Uttar Pradesh, SP has ruled out an alliance with BJP while INC is moving close to BSP.  In a three corned battle between SP front, BSP-INC, and BJP the BJP most likely will capture less than the 29 seats it has now.  INC-BSP alliance will also help in places like MP, Rajastan, and Gujurat.  

In Bihar, JD(U) is falling apart and the BJP is also in bad shape.  RJD is looking good and the RJD-INC will for sure gain seats over the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In Northeast India, the NDA might gain a few seats over the INC but most likely very much.

In AP. TDP-BJP still has the edge, but if an INC-TRS-CPM alliance can be formed then it could lower the TDP-BJP total from 1999.  

If these postive trends can be consolidated when the polls come in March or May 2004, the LS elections might produce a situation where no party nor front has a majority.  Both BJP and INC will have around 150 seats or so.  This will lead to a weak and unstable coalition governments and another election might come before the 5 year team is up.

 

[jaichind]

For one poll? That'll cost a lot of money...

BTW how well will the RJD do in Bihar?
I remember them doing very badly in 1999.

Last I checked it should be an uphill struggle for the NDA this time around.  In Bihar the JD(U) is in bad shape despite the merger of the Samata Party into the JD(U) or perhaps because of it.  The BJP-JD(U) swept Bihar last time around in 1999 but that was the height of the media assult on RJD "Jungle Raj."  The amount of defections of from JD(U) and BJP to RJD are an indication that the RJD-INC-Left Front prospects are getting brighter.  While such a front on paper is powerful it still comes down with effective seat adjustment.  In Jarkarhand the NDA government is crisis prone and the JMM might very well throw its weight behind RJD-INC-Left Front.    

[jaichind]

Former UP CM Kalyan Singh is rejoining the BJP. He'd walked out before the last general election and set up his own outfit. It took (I think) 2 Lok Sabha seats but its five percent vote share across the state probably cost the BJP 10-12 seats. I'm not sure how they fared in the State polls since.
His party isn't following him back into the fold actually, but as he's the only prominent head most voters will. In fact it's really a caste-based "vote bank". He's the only Lodh who's made it this big, so the Lodhs vote for him...Hey, that's India!

Well, during the last Lok Shaba election in 1999, Kalyan Singh was still in the BJP and was the CM of UP.  His relationship with the BJP was strained at that stage but did not walk out.  The Lodh community is part of the OBC (Other backward castes) group of castes and Kalyan Singh help the BJP capture a good dead of the OBC vote starting in the early 1990s despite that the fact that the BJP in UP is basically an upper caste outfit.  After a disappointing 1999 LS election in UP Kalyan Singh was eased out as CM by the upper caste establisment and he soon bolted from the BJP soon after that.  For sure he did not leave the BJP and float his own outfit before 1999 or the BJP would not even get the 29 seats in UP it got.  Kalyan Singh's outfit did participate in the 2002 UP assembly election and captured about 5 out of 425 seats available.  There are few Lodh dominated segments but they are significant in large number of districts and for now Kalyan Singh has them in his vote bank.

Kalyan Singh had shown signs of returning to the much weakened BJP but he was driving a hard bargin between the Samajwadi Party and BJP.  I guess he is going with BJP.  I was on my home province of Taiwan for Chinese New Years and did not get to read much about Kalyan Singh's return but I expect that this will acclerate INC and BSP talks in UP for an alliance as BJP just got a shot in the arm.  If the INC and BSP does not hang togeather they will hang seperately given the possible revival of the BJP and the obvious strength of the SP in UP.

[jaichind]

"Communists in split shock" eh?
I remember the CPI-M[arxist] doing well in the WB local elections a bit ago.

No more NCP to split the vote in Maharashtra?
Excellent...

The Indian Communist Party (CPI) split back in 1964 into Right and Left factions.  The Right faction controlled the party and stayed CPI and the Left faction became CPI(M) or CPM for Marxist.  The split was over the USSR-PRC split where CPI sided with USSR and CPI(M) was for PRC.  CPI also insisted that alliances with "progressive" elements of the INC was acceptable while CPI(M) has rejected the line.  CPI(M) itself broke with the PRC in 1979 when the PRC opposed the USSR intervention in Afganistan but CPI(M) as well as CPI supported it.  

[jaichind]

Bad in Kerala, well in WB and Tripura is my guess. But I'm no expert on that. I don't even have a clue why the CPI and CPI-M remain split, now that Mao is dead...

The main issue is still the nature of a "progressive" centrist outfits like INC.  Whereas CPI insist that alliance with a progressive INC is possible on the long run the CPM insists that the class nature of the INC makes such an alliance impossible and hurts the working class it claims to represent.  The CPM does accept tactial alliances with the INC to defeat the BJP but no long term relationship.  There as been reunification talks between the two parties but have broken down over the issue I raised above.

[jaichind]

That's the number I remember. I read this yesterday morning, so I may be wrong. Or maybe it's a typo...But I distinctly remember it as 13,000 or 15,000.

Polls in India have a relatively poor record.  Mainly because the multi-polar mature of many election contests it is very difficult to translate % of the vote of each party to the number of seats each party could expect to get.  Adding the number of poeple polled will not change this.

[jaichind]

I find it hard to believe that INC will not gain a bunch of seats in Orissa.  Back in 1999 BJP-BJD took 19 of 21 seats.  This time there are significant defections from BJD to INC as well as an INC alliance with OSP.  It is really now a virtual tie.  

As for Assam, BJP and AGP talks broke down so INC might not lose that many seats.  

In Jarkrahand, the INC-JMM-RJD could capture more seats than BJP-JD(U).  

NDA will for sure lose ground in Himachral Pradesh, Uttranchal, New Dehli, Hayarana, and Kashmir/Jammu.  

It really comes down to Uttar Pradesh and it BJP and take a good deal more than the 29 seats it got in 1999.  Also, I am not so sure one can call a clean sweep for BJP over INC in Gujurat, Madaya Pradesh, Rajastan, and Chattisgrah.  The polls might show a clean sweep but I think the BJP will be luck to replicate its 1999 performance in those areas come voting day.  

[jaichind]

The poll already assumes no alliance between AGP and BJP.

Seems the chances for a Congress-BSP alliance are off. Mayawati has said she'd go it alone because BJP, SP and Congress, accordig to her, have exactly the same ideology anyway.

I know and read the poll already on the issue of AGP and BJP.  My point is that in a multi-cornered contest the distribution of votes is far more relevent.  So even if the poll correctly estimates relative levels of support any estimate of seat totals will be quite futile.  

As for UP. I am taking a non-CW view on the non-alliance of INC with neither SP nor BSP.  I tend to think this will hurt BJP.  BJP tends to be strong in upper caste, is trying to expand its base in the backward castes and dalits.  INC used to be catch call party with weakness in the backward castes but now has only pockets of support among upper castes, dalits, and muslims.  BSP is strong among dailts and trying to move to Muslims.  SP is strong in backward castes and has significant support among Muslims.  Upper castes are very hostile to BSP and SP and the BSP case for not forming an alliance with INC is that the INC cannot transfer its upper caste vote to BSP, which is true.  The mulsims tends to support INC but switched to SP after the INC government at the center back in 1991 failed to stop the destruction of the masque at Ayodyda followed the failure of the INC government in Maharastra so stop anti-Muslim riots in Mumbai back in 1993.  If the INC goes it alone and captures back Muslim support in UP, the upper caste vote might swing back to INC and away from BJP.  For sure an  SP-INC or BSP-INC allaince will get very little upper caste support.  The upper caste vote in UP is fairly unhappy with BJP for trying to move more backward caste leaders into its leadership.  In 1999 the BJP only got 29 seats in UP as opposed to 50+ seats in 1996 and 1998 because of upper caste protest to Kaylan Sighn, himself a backward caste leader of the BJP.  The BJP after 1999 ousted Kaylan Singn to try to pull back upper caste vote and managed to preseve its base in the 2002 assembly elections.  The return of Kaylan Singh to BJP for sure wil pull in more backward caste vote for BJP but if INC goes it alone and runs a good campaign the BJP will lose the upper caste vote to INC.  So ironicly, if INC plays its cards right, the BJP will be a net loser from the failure of INC to form an alliance with either BSP or SP.

[jaichind]

From the Hindu Part I


IF THE media were to decide elections, the general elections to the 14th Lok Sabha would be a pointless exercise. The verdict is already out: the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance is sure to return to power. Almost all sections of the media have said this from the day the NDA decided to advance the polls. Two serious nationwide surveys have supported this forecast, though in varying degrees. Add to this the umpteen number of newspaper articles, views of poll pundits and the astrologers. The hawa, as they say, favours the ruling coalition.

I am not convinced of this established wisdom. I am not convinced that it is a one-sided race all the way, that the NDA's majority is a foregone conclusion and that the Congress is about to slip down to its worst-ever performance. I am not sure that the electoral race can be called at this stage, and that even if one were to call it at this stage the results would be quite what the media think to be the case. This is, of course, not to say that there is no substance in the conventional wisdom. Nor do I dismiss the two nationwide surveys published by India Today and Outlook (I do not include in this category some other purely urban opinion polls that are hard to take seriously). It is just that years of watching elections has convinced me of the value of political commonsense and has taught me to disregard hype.

Before I set out my reasons for not subscribing to the prevailing wisdom about an NDA victory, let me first note what I believe to be valuable in this wisdom. First, it is true that the ruling coalition does not confront an electorate in a mood of total rejection of the sort we saw in the national elections of 1977, 1980, 1989 or 1996. The absence of a strong `anti-incumbency' mood at the end of a nearly full term of the government is no mean achievement.

The second element of truth in the prevailing wisdom is related to the first. It is true that at the core of this achievement for the NDA is the image of the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in the eyes of the public. All the opinion polls so far have shown that his image has remained remarkably unaffected by the various scams and scandals that have taken place in the last five years. He is in any case substantially ahead of the Congress president, Sonia Gandhi, the only other name in the race.

And finally, there is no doubt that the organisational capacity of the BJP election machinery is way ahead of the Congress. This was clearly in evidence in the way Congress lost the Assembly elections in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The Congress may have recovered somewhat, but there are signs of the same in the Lok Sabha elections as well: the BJP is a well-oiled machine, while in the Congress the left hand does not know what the right is doing.

The question therefore is, what conclusions can one draw from these facts. It would be fair to conclude from these facts that the ruling NDA is not headed for an electoral debacle or a wipe-out of the kind many ruling parties have faced in the past. One could also conclude that the BJP-led alliance is better placed to exploit the electoral opportunities that present themselves than its rival.

But, to my mind, all this is not enough to conclude that the NDA is headed for a repeat of its performance and is sure to come back to power. For this to be true, one has to produce evidence that there is not only no anti-incumbency mood against the NDA, but also that there is a positive sentiment, something of a `feel good' factor across the country. One has to demonstrate that the preference for Vajpayee will prevail over other considerations in the voting decision. One needs to show that the BJP is already so close to the magic number that its organisational advantage is enough to make the difference. I have not yet seen evidence that convinces me on these counts. Therefore I remain an agnostic, as far as the final outcome is concerned, and wait for more reliable evidence.

A fundamental flaw in thinking about what is going to happen in this election is that we tend to see things through old frames while the political realities have changed on the ground. Gone are the days of nationwide swings in favour of one party leading to waves or sweeps in elections. Ever since 1996, the Lok Sabha elections are no longer a single nationwide race — for all practical purposes the general election now is 28 electoral races being held simultaneously; the national-level verdict is nothing but the sum total of all the State-level verdicts. A State is the effective unit of political choice even in Lok Sabha elections.

 

[jaichind]

From The Hindu part II

Therefore, the most useful way to think about electoral prospects is to look at each State separately and assess the type of party competition, nature of social alliances and the current electoral scenario. That is what I propose to do in this series of articles. The question therefore is not whether the NDA has an advantage at the national level. That it undoubtedly has. The real question is whether the BJP and its various allies can convert this advantage into seats in each State. That remains an open question. Before we turn to each State in this series, let us begin with an overview. It may be useful to think of the coming electoral battle in terms of three battlegrounds and group all the States accordingly into one of the three types of contests.

The `Western Front,' from Punjab downwards right up to Kerala including the whole of old Madhya Pradesh, represents the zone of opportunity for the NDA. This is where it is likely to put up a good show and record gains in terms of votes and seats.

The `Eastern Front' includes all the States on the eastern coast from Tamil Nadu to West Bengal and extends to Bihar and Jharkhand on the one hand and the North-East on the other. The NDA had hit a peak here in the last election and faces an uphill task of cutting its losses to a minimum in this zone.

And finally, there is the `Northern Front' comprising Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. This zone is smaller than the other two but this is where the real uncertainty lies and where the real battle will be fought.

The principal nature of the political contest in the Western Front is that of the Congress versus the BJP. The NDA had bagged 108 of the 202 seats in this region in 1999 with the BJP alone getting 88. The Congress on the other hand won 70 seats with its allies adding another four. The BJP has allies only in Punjab and Maharashtra, while the Congress has allies only in Maharashtra and Kerala.

The BJP enjoys an advantage in this direct face-off with the Congress. The Congress regimes in Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala are well past their honeymoon period, while the BJP has the advantage of freshly elected regimes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and to some extent in Gujarat. However, the NDA cannot expect to gain a large number of seats here compared to its performance in 1999. Except Punjab, Karnataka and Kerala, the NDA did very well in this entire belt. While the NDA votes may improve in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP alliance may reduce the NDA's tally. In Kerala, the BJP is still far short of converting any gains of votes into seats. All in all, the NDA cannot expect to add more than 20 seats to its existing tally of 108 in this zone.

On the Eastern Front, the NDA will be engaged in a defensive battle. Here the contest involves principally the allies of the BJP and other regional political parties. Barring Jharkhand, none of the States will witness a direct BJP-Congress contest. Here the NDA had peaked in the previous Lok Sabha elections winning 136 of a total of 223 seats, of which 89 went to the BJP's allies.

The NDA, particularly the BJP's allies, has a lot to lose here. It nearly swept Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Jharkhand last time and will need to do exceptionally well to retain those seats. The nature of the anti-NDA coalition in Tamil Nadu and the state of the BJP's allies in Bihar and West Bengal will make it difficult for the NDA to repeat its performance in these States. The only place where the NDA can hope to retain and improve its position is Assam and other northeastern States, but then all of them account for only 25 seats. The NDA would be lucky if it contains its losses to about 40 seats. In a worst-case scenario, the losses for the NDA could go up to 60 seats or more.

That leaves the Northern Front, which itself can be divided into Uttar Pradesh and a group of small States in the northwest. The second group, comprising Jammu and Kashmi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana and Delhi, accounts for 32 seats of which the Congress won only one last time. The BJP swept this region, winning 21 seats with its allies picking another six.

This time it will be very difficult for the BJP to repeat this performance, especially after the split with the Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana. In Uttar Pradesh, which should be seen as a region in itself, the situation is still unclear since the alliances are yet to be firmed up. In any case, the BJP does not have big gains to look forward to here and should be content if it can retain the 25 seats it has now. If the Congress-BSP alliance does not take place, the SP can hope to add to its tally at the expense of the rest. If the BSP and the Congress do come together, the combine could inflict considerable damages on both the SP and the BJP. The NDA cannot possibly improve upon its tally in the northern zone; its losses may vary from none to a loss of up to 20 seats.

The final overall outcome will depend upon how the electoral battle on all the three fronts plays itself out. This is not the place or the stage to speculate on what the final outcome will be. But if the scenario presented above makes any sense, at least three types of outcomes are possible. The first scenario is that of the NDA coming back with a majority, perhaps a reduced majority. The second is that of the NDA falling short of majority by a small number, say up to 20. In that case the anti-NDA parties would still be considerably behind the NDA and the latter could draw upon some unattached parties such as the SP to form the Government.

But if the NDA does poorly in any two of the three battlegrounds, especially if the Congress-BSP alliance comes about, a third possibility is also open. The combined strength of the Congress, its allies and the Left could cross the majority mark. All the three scenarios lie within a very small range and can come about with a mere 50 seats changing hands. But the political consequences of the three scenarios are radically different. It is still an open race.

[jaichind]

I posted an essay from The Hindu which mimic my views that the NDA does not have it in the bag.  It is like the 1998 USA Congressional elections.  The national trend pointed toward a GOP gain but if one went disctict by disctrict a different result emerged.  Same here, a state b state analysis shows that if anything, NDA wil lose ground from 1999.

[jaichind]

Yeah, a lot of truth in that...Let's just keep hoping...
Maybe we should also hope for an Indian drubbing in the cricket series and a health scare for Atalji...Now those two events together should sweep Congress to victory.

All my Indian friends here in NYC, regardless of political loyalties, think that BJP will sweep the polls.  Many think that BJP will get a majority on their own, something I think is just not possible.  BJP at best might get to 200 but no more.   I guess my friends have been taken in by the "India Shineing" campaign.  I am sure that INC + allies will not get a majority but do not rule out a minority INC+allies government supported by the Left Front after the 2004 elections.