India elections

[minionofmidas]

Actually living in India at the moment, so I have to say something on this count:
Basically the BJP can't win much longer, the Congress can't win for the time being, and anyone else's government is going to end in rapid breakdown as it did twice before:
Vajpayee is personally much more popular than his party - I myself like the guy even though he's allied with people I'd put to the gallows if I endorsed the Death Penalty -
but he's 79 and ill. They need him to win. That there'll be early elections is partly due to this respect.
The Congress party is so dead that it's leader is the widow of the son of the last capable leader they ever had. (That she's also Italian doesn't matter to me) That it's still around is only because so many voters have nowhere else to go.
That at least is my pesimistic assessment.
My optimistic one is that Congress will overcome its earlier mistakes and form a bit broader coalition and Sonia will actually prove a capable leader and the BJP is back to fringe as soon as Vajpayee dies.

[minionofmidas]

It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely

[minionofmidas]

Well I believe at the Indian Parliament and the Election Commission you only get lists with the districts they're in... Yet I've seen such maps in the Deccan Herald and the Times of India concerning the state polls... Not the new results strangely, but in the pre-poll coverage they showed maps of the previous result. So maybe you should just email these people, I don't know...

[minionofmidas]

Former UP CM Kalyan Singh is rejoining the BJP. He'd walked out before the last general election and set up his own outfit. It took (I think) 2 Lok Sabha seats but its five percent vote share across the state probably cost the BJP 10-12 seats. I'm not sure how they fared in the State polls since.
His party isn't following him back into the fold actually, but as he's the only prominent head most voters will. In fact it's really a caste-based "vote bank". He's the only Lodh who's made it this big, so the Lodhs vote for him...Hey, that's India!

[minionofmidas]

It's just about possible, but even if it happens it certainly wouldn't last five years.
ANother option for UP discussed in the Indian press is a formal Cong-BSP alliance and a formal SP-Left Front alliance that cooperate in a number of key seats and slings it out elsewhere. It's just talk as of now, but the Cong-BSP bit actually is starting to look likely

Wouldn't this coalition try to halt privatization and de-regulation? From what I hear that would be a turn back into the past.

Funny that you should say that, with that signature...
I don't think India is overregulated, it's more like misregulated. A lot of red tape has been applied, but just not in the places where it belongs.
Basically I have the feeling that the Economic reforms of the last 15 years -initiated by the last Congress government but continued by the BJP- have done a lot to make the small middle class richer, but for the poor the best that can be said is they haven't hurt. (Hey-that means they've actually been quite succesful!)

[minionofmidas]

It can now be considered pretty much established that there will indeed be Elections very soon. Pramod Mahajan. the General Secretary of the BJ, has said as much, and he hasn't hedged his comment this time: "The House will be dissolved in the first week of February."
Also the NCP is splitting up. Pawar is trying to lead it into an Alliance with the Congress from which it had split off on the question of Sonia's leadership. Some of its top brass have bolted or been expelled. They are now expected to set up their own shop and join the NDA.

[minionofmidas]

Bad in Kerala, well in WB and Tripura is my guess. But I'm no expert on that. I don't even have a clue why the CPI and CPI-M remain split, now that Mao is dead...

[minionofmidas]

No more NCP to split the vote in Maharashtra?
Excellent...

Probably more like two or even three of them...Anyway the NCP is also quite strong in Chhattisgarh and the state party chairman was among the guys trying to form an NDA-affiliated party.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah well, whoever believes Tamil Nadu politics had anything to do with issues or principles better had his mind checked.
The NCP factions are fighting about who gets to keep the name and the symbol.
Rebellion has broken out in the Congress in Kerala, with some octogenarian leader, K.Karkulidharan or something like that, who'd been unhappy with the CM for years, having finally walked out taking 17 Assembly members with him. That's not enough for the Government to lose the majority. His son, who is an Assembly member himself, surprised everybody by not joining. (He fell short of calling his father senile though). Anyways, they will found a new party, to be known probably as Indira Gandhi Congress, and will contest elections. Nobody expects them to win much, but it might mean a worse Congress and thus a better Communist showing in the state. (The BJP doesn't figure at all in Kerala, which is only 55% Hindu but 25% Muslim and 20% Christian).

[minionofmidas]

Sorry, the name up there should be Karunakaran.
The Communists seemed finished for the moment in Kerala, but this thing should help them. I still can't see them winning a majority of the state's seats yet. Btw: Is that 8-8 for the two major parties or 8-8 for the two political blocks, the different leftie groups vs Congress, Muslim League and Kerala Congress (a Commie splinter-off)? Anyway, Congress is playing this secession biz cool. They just say they are not going to expel him, if he really founds his own party he's out anyway, but as for now nothing has actually happened.
The first opinion poll is out and says the NDA is increasing its position slightly, the Congress is losing seats, others pretty much unchanged. This might change if more parties ally with Congress though.
Parliament will be dissolved on February 6th, but the Election dates have not been set yet. That's done by the Electoral Commission, not the PM. There will also be state Elections in Andhra Pradesh (regional outfit TDP with BJP as junior partner vs a split opposition of Congress, AIMIM (Muslim party strong in Hyderabad, united to Cong), TRS (regional party demanding separate statehood for the Telangana) and the CPI. There were talks about an alliance but they seem to have fallen flat), Sikkim (doesn't matter), Orissa (just as Andhra, governed by regional outfit Biju JD with BJP backing. Cong only real opposition, has just recruited some rebel BJD politicos. Election one and a half years ahead of schedule), probably Karnataka (governed by Congress, but with the opposition split five way between BJP, their ally JD (U), the JD (S), the AIPJD and the Janata Party 50% of the vote should be enough for 90% of the seats. Indeed Congress talks of all Lok Sabha seats from the state and an increased majority in the Legislative Assembly, where they currently have about two thirds). Early polls in Maharashtra are also possible - it's just half a year early, as here in KA - but unlikely because the NCP is a partner in the government and obviously has no reason to want elections now.
Oh yeah, Tamil Nadu. It started when film stars entered politics. There is also the fact that DMK and AIADMK both endorse Tamil nationalism and socialist rhetoric, neither of which means anything. So effectively there is no difference between them except who runs them and who votes for them, and they can't really ally with each other as that would be kind of pointless. Similarly all the minor parties, which are effectively vote banks and include Communists and Congress, prefer to ally with the DMK simply because its smaller and therefore more ready to make seat-sharing arrangements. The BJP seems not to be active in the state at all, which I'd advise Congress to do too. But who am I for Congress to listen to me...

[minionofmidas]

How reliable are polls in India? As it's such a huge and diverse country I wouldn't think very accurate...

I don't know. They polled a remarkable number of people though, something like 15K across 20 states or something...Still, who knows what kind of people they polled...

[minionofmidas]

That's the number I remember. I read this yesterday morning, so I may be wrong. Or maybe it's a typo...But I distinctly remember it as 13,000 or 15,000.

[minionofmidas]

For one poll? That'll cost a lot of money...

BTW how well will the RJD do in Bihar?
I remember them doing very badly in 1999.

Hey, I don't know everything! The RJD wants an electoral alliance with Congress, the only reason it's not finalized (in my opinion) is that Congress fears this might scare away other allies. Whatever his popularity in Bihar, which appears highly polarized, Laloo Prasad is extremely unpopular in the rest of India. Kinda like everybody's favorite whipping boy, in fact.
If anyone makes populist noises and points out being born into poverty, the other camp will shout "Lalooism!"

[minionofmidas]

Well, during the last Lok Shaba election in 1999, Kalyan Singh was still in the BJP and was the CM of UP.  His relationship with the BJP was strained at that stage but did not walk out.  The Lodh community is part of the OBC (Other backward castes) group of castes and Kalyan Singh help the BJP capture a good dead of the OBC vote starting in the early 1990s despite that the fact that the BJP in UP is basically an upper caste outfit.  After a disappointing 1999 LS election in UP Kalyan Singh was eased out as CM by the upper caste establisment and he soon bolted from the BJP soon after that.  For sure he did not leave the BJP and float his own outfit before 1999 or the BJP would not even get the 29 seats in UP it got.  

Well, so much for the reliability of Indian newspaper reporting. That's where I got my version from. Probably they were just copying it from BJP press releases...
Kalyan Singh was allied to the SP and the RLD in the last assembly elections, I read yesterday. The RLD, strong among Jats, seems to be interested in joining a (not yet certain) Congress-BSP alliance, which would leave Mulayam Singh without his allies. The Communists will likely be allied with Congress outside their stronghold states but pretend that they aren't. They would also not join a Cong-led Ministry at the Centre but would prefer to tolerate it from the outside.

[minionofmidas]

In Black-and-White Newspapers, the Congress is White, the BJP is Grey, and all others are Black.
Green or White will do fine.
And the BJP is not orange, its saffron!

[minionofmidas]

Orangy-yellow then.
Is making that mistake enough to get me on the hitlist of a bunch of Hindu extremists?

Might be.

[minionofmidas]

There's a new gigantic opinion poll by Outlook magazine and MDRA polling agency...
The NDA should get about 40,6% of the vote (up 2,1)
Congress and its Aliies should get about 37,1 (+0,4)
others about 22,3 (-2,5)
This should translate into 280-290 seats for the NDA (from 280)
159-169 for Congress and Allies (154)
89-99 for others (109)
However, the BJP is supposed to gain seats anc COngress to lose seats. Congress just has more allies this time around...

There are short state-by-state analyses of those states included in the survey:
PUNJAB Akali Dal-BJP alliance will make gains, Cong state government faction-ridden and unpopular
HARYANA Gains for Congress as INLD-BJP alliance has broken up and INLD state government is unpopular
DELHI Last time BJP swept the seven seats, Congress will wrest about half of them away
RAJASTHAN BJP will improve on the current 16-7 split
UTTAR PRADESH If BJP, SP, BSP and Cong all go it alone, as appears likely right now, expect slight gains for BJP and SP, losses for BSP, Cong stable. A BSP-Cong alliance, still possible, should make handy gains resulting in small losses for BJP and SP
BIHAR Congress-RJD alliance stronger than last time, alliance with Lok Jan Shakti will also help. JDU in disarray, BJP holding up better
CHHATTISGARH Cong in disarray after Ajit Jogi's departure. BJP might even sweep all eleven seats
ORISSA BJP-Biju JD combine will likely hold its current 19 out of 21 tally. Biju JD state government is returned on increased majority
WEST BENGAL Left Front will be dominant once again, Trinamool Congress will lose seats, Cong may gain a handful
ASSAM Last time Cong got 8 seats, Asom Gana Parishad 4, BJP 2. Since then the AGP has joined and left the NDA. The three parties are polling remarkably equal now, which means seat losses for Cong
GUJARAT Last time the BJP got 20 out of 26 seats, a slight gain now is more likely than a slight loss
MADHYA PRADESH All set for a BJP sweep
MAHARASHTRA The Cong-NCP alliance should outpoll the BJP-Shiv Sena combine, gain 10-15 seats. Central Maharashtra will go for them, and Mumbai will probably be split, but the Vidarbha (far East) and the Konkan Coast will stay with the NDA
KARNATAKA the poll predicts an outbreak of ticket-splitting here, with the BJP making gains in the Lok Sabha, to about parity with Cong, but the Cong state government reelected easily due to the remaining JDS strength. (Many people will vote NDA nationally, JDS in the state, thus splitting the vote and letting more Cong assembly members in)
ANDHRA PRADESH Congress will certainly improve on its current tally of five. The alliance with the TRS should pay rich dividends. That said, the TDP-BJP combine will still hold a majority of Andhra seats, and the TDP state government will limp into another term
TAMIL NADU The DMK-Cong-etcetera alliance is set to sweep most of the state

Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Jharkand, Goa, Kerala, the Northeastern Hill States except Assam and the Union Territories except Delhi were not included in the survey.
The pollsters identified 102 constituencies across the nation. In each of them they picked three assembly segments and, in each of these, three communities (one town and two villages in rural constituencies, three neighborhoods in urban ones). This means the mammoth poll was actually 918 simultaneous mini polls with about 130 voters in each, 12,249 in all. In each poll, they interviewed exactly 50% men and 50% women, and only one person per household.
We'll see how accurate it's going to be...

[minionofmidas]

The poll already assumes no alliance between AGP and BJP.

Seems the chances for a Congress-BSP alliance are off. Mayawati has said she'd go it alone because BJP, SP and Congress, accordig to her, have exactly the same ideology anyway.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, a lot of truth in that...Let's just keep hoping...
Maybe we should also hope for an Indian drubbing in the cricket series and a health scare for Atalji...Now those two events together should sweep Congress to victory.

[minionofmidas]

The BJP will definitely not get an absolute majority. They'd have to win almost all the seats they contest for that.
But I'm here, I'm around Indians in Bangalore rather than NYC, and trust me, Congress won't win. Unless the cricketers lose all remaining matches of the Pakistan tour, that is.
That the regional thing isn't working as well for the BJP as last time is obvious from that Outlook survey too, by the way. It says the BJP+allies will gain 2% of the votes, Congress+allies 0,5%, but Congress+allies will gain more seats.

[minionofmidas]

This is just to bore you...
Party's percentage-wise break up in big states last time.
Punjab INC 38,4 Akali Dal 28,6 BJP 9,2 two different Akali Dal splinter groups 4,6 and 3,4 BSP 3,8 CPI 3,7
Haryana INC 34,9 BJP 29,2 INLD 28,7
Rajasthan BJP 47,2 INC 45,1
Gujarat BJP 52,5 INC 45,4
Uttar Pradesh (includes Uttaranchal) BJP 27,6 SP 24,1 BSP 22,1 INC 14,7 independents 3,6
Bihar (includes Jharkand) RJD 28,3 BJP 23,0 JD (U) 20,8 INC 8,8 independents 4,2
Madhya Pradesh (inludes Chhattisgarh) BJP 46,6 INC 43,9 BSP 5,2
West Bengal CPM 35,6 Trinamul Congress 26,0 INC 13,3 BJP 11,1 RSP 4,3 CPI 3,5 FB 3,5
Assam INC 38,4 BJP 29,8 AGP 11,9 independents 9,4
Orissa INC 36,9 Biju JD 33,0 BJP 24,6
Maharashtra INC 29,7 NCP 21,6 BJP 21,2 Shiv Sena 16,9 independents 3,3
Karnataka INC 45,4 BJP 27,2 JD (U) 13,3 JD (S) 10,9
Andhra Pradesh INC 42,8 TDP 39,9 BJP 9,9
Kerala INC 39,4 CPM 27,9 CPI 7,6 BJP 6,6 Muslim League 5,3 independents 4,8
Tamil Nadu AIADMK 25,7 DMK 23,1 INC 11,1 PMK 8,2 TMC 7,2 BJP 7,1 MDMK 6,0

[minionofmidas]

I'm up in Rajasthan right now, where they won't vote til 10th May. I'll go to Delhi today and then to Kerala, where they also vote only on tenth May...And, travelling, I've stopped reading papers regularly...I do knwo that I recently saw two newsmagazines with polling-related covers that were quite contradictory: One proclaimed "Now NDA shining in assembly polls too?" and had a poll showing the BJD-BJP combine in Orissa with another landslide, the TDP just about limping home with a majority and Karnataka's Congress government going down, though I can't really see that happening. They'll lose seats in the Interior but they'll gain bigtime in Bangalore and on the coast.
The other predicted just 230-260 seats for the NDA, which would mean a hung parliament. (Congress and allies were predicted at 170-200).

[minionofmidas]

Different exit polls all showed the NDA ahead amongst Constituenciies voting on the first round, with totals ranging from 69 to 93 out of 140. In the last election they took 88 of these, so they might register slight losses. But there isn't really any chance of Atalji not staying PM unless maybe if the SP really sweeps UP or something...Oh, and Chandrababu Naidu is probably out in Andhra, while S.M.Krishna might survive on a whisper in Karnataka.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, I bought THE WEEK's Election Special and now have a constituency-by-constituency guide to the Elections...
Just for kicks, I've got a constituency-by-constituency prediction ready! (I spent 52 hours on a train...)
Note that this prediction is probably not friendly enough to the NDA. Also note that it presumes swings that, while not exactly uniform, are certainly more uniform than they'll actually be. I'm just wondering how many I'll get right...

Jammu & Kashmir
INC 2 (Baramulla, Jammu)
PDP 2 (Anantnag, Ladakh) CONGRESS ALLY
BJP 1 (Udhampur)
J&K NC 1 (Srinagar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
J&K NC 4 BJP ALLY
BJP 2

Himachal Pradesh
BJP 3
INC 1 (Shimla)

1999 result
BJP 3
HVC 1 BJP ALLY

Uttaranchal
BJP 3
INC 1 (Nainital)
BSP 1 (Hardwar) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 4
INC 1

Punjab
SAD 5 (Tarn Taran, Jalandhar, Bhalanda, Fardikot, Ferozepur) BJP ALLY
INC 4 (Phillaur, Ropar, Ludhiana, Patiala)
BJP 3 (Gurdaspur, Amritsar, Hoshiarpur)
SAD (M) 1 (Sangrur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
INC 8
SAD 2
BJP 1
SAD (M) 1
CPI 1 THIRD PARTY

Chandigarh
BJP 1

1999 result
INC 1

Haryana
INC 6 (Kurukshetra, Karnal, Rohtak, Faridabad, Hissar, Sora)
BJP 3 (Ambala, Sonepat, Mahendragarh)
INLD 1 (Bhiwani) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 5
INLD 5 BJP ALLY

Delhi
INC 4
BJP 3 (New Delhi, South Delhi, Outer Delhi)

1999 result
BJP 7

To be continued...

[minionofmidas]

Rajasthan
BJP 19
INC 6 (Bikaner, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Nagaur, Salumber, Banswara)

1999 result
BJP 16
INC 9

Gujarat
BJP 21
INC 5 (Surendranagar, Patan, Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Kapadvanj)

1999 result
BJP 20
INC 6

Daman & Diu
INC 1 (as 1999)

Dadra & Nagar Haveli
INC 1 (1999: ind 1)

Uttar Pradesh
SP 42 (1999 constituencies plus Bijnor, Shahjahanpur, Sitapur, Hardoi, Sultanpur, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Salempur, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Chail, Hamirpur, Ghatampur, Saharanpur) THIRD PARTY
BJP 23 (1999 constituencies mines Bijnor, Bansgaon, Gorakhpur, Jaunpur, Ghazipur, Robertsganj, Hapur; plus Moradabad, Pilibhit, Jalaun, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar)
INC 6 (Rampur, Rae Bareli, Pratapgarh, Amethi, Jhansi, Kanpur)
BSP 5 (Amroha, Shahabad, Akbarpur, Ghosi, Banda)
RLD 3 (Hapur, Baghpat, Kairana) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY
SJP 1 (Ballia) THIRD PARTY/CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
SP 26
BJP 25
BSP 14
INC 9
LTC 2 BJP ALLY
RLD 2 THIRD PARTY
SJP 1 THIRD PARTY
ind 1 BJP ALLY

Madhya Pradesh
BJP 26
INC 3 (Guna, Chhindwara, Jhabua)

1999 result
BJP 21
INC 8

Chhattisgarh
BJP 9
INC 2 (Surguja, Mahasamund)

1999 result
BJP 8
INC 3

Orissa
Biju JD 10 (unchanged) BJP ALLY
BJP 7
INC 4 (Berhampur, Koraput, Nowrangpur, Dhenkanal)

1999 result
Biju JD 10
BJP 9
INC 2

Bihar
RJD 17 (Bettiah, Motihari, Gopalganj, Siwan, Chapra, Vaishali, Samastipur, Barh, Madhepura, Kishanganj, Monghyr, Arrah, Buxar, Sasaram, Bikramganj, Jahanabad, Gaya) CONGRESS ALLY
JD (U) 10 (Bagoha, Maharajganj, Muzaffarpur, Sitamarhi, Jhanjhapur, Balia, Saharsa, Banka, Khagoria, Nalanda) BJP ALLY
BJP 6 (Shashar, Madhubani, Deurbhanga, Araria, Patna, Nawada)
LJP 3 (Hajipur, Rosera, Purnea) CONGRESS ALLY
INC 2 (Begusarai, Aurangabad)
NCP 1 (Katihar) CONGRESS ALLY
CPM 1 (Bhagalpur) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
JD (U) 18
BJP 12
RJD 6
INC 2
CPM 1
ind 1

Jharkhand
BJP 9
INC 4 (Rajmahal, Kodarma, Giridh, Lohardaga)
JMM 1 (Dumka) THIRD PARTY

1999 result
BJP 11
INC 2
RJD 1

West Bengal
CPM 24 (1999 result plus Krishnagar, Nabadwip, Contai)
TC 5 (minus Nabadwip, Contai, Calcutta NW) BJP ALLY
CPI 3 (unchanged)
RSP 3 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
INC 3 (unchanged)
FB 2 (unchanged) COMMIE ALLY
BJP 1 (minus Krishnagar)
ind 1 (Calcutta NW) CONGRESS ALLY

1999 result
CPM 21
TC 8
CPI 3
RSP 3
INC 3
BJP 2
FB 2

to be continued