Alabama

[Lephead]

Here is a complete Alabama by precinct 2008 :

http://www.sos.state.al.us/Elections/2008/ElectionInfo2008.aspx

[mileslunn]

My guess is one could use a racial breakdown map and it would probably be pretty close to the actual results.  Mississipp, Louisiana, and Alabama strike me as the most racially polarized states.  In Alabama, 9 times out of 10 you could guess right how someone voted just by looking at their skin colour.  I also don't think this just has to do with Obama being Black as I believe Bush got around 85% in 2004 amongst Alabama whites, while Kerry got between 90-95% of Alabama Blacks.  Now true Blacks vote heavily Democrat regardless of location whereas the white population is far more evenly split and there are some sections such as New England, West Coast, parts of the Upper Midwest where the white population generally favours the Democrats by margins outside of the statiscal margin of error (in the Mid-Atlantic, most states were within the statistical margin of error amongst whites in the 2008 election).  Even in other southern states, such as Arkansas, North Carolina, and Tennessee, the Democrats still almost always get over 30% of the white vote. 

[Hash]

Mississippi is even more racially polarized than Alabama, FWIW.

[mileslunn]

Mississippi is even more racially polarized than Alabama, FWIW.

I would say Alabama is probably the second most racially polarized state, although I agree Mississippi is the most racially polarized.  Here are the Mississippi results according to the CNN exit polls

2004

85% of Whites voted for Bush
94% of Blacks voted for Kerry

2008

88% of Whites voted of McCain
98% of Blacks voted for Obama

[Hash]

I think it's been said that if, in 1996, MS whites voted at the same percentage between Dole and Clinton as the AL whites did, Clinton would have won MS.

[Husker]

I think the 18-29 white demographic subgroup in MS might have been more slightly more favorable to Obama than in AL.

[Hash]

I think the 18-29 white demographic subgroup in MS might have been more slightly more favorable to Obama than in AL.

Maybe a slight sign of encouragement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, it's a sign of the usual problems with exit polls. It's pretty obvious that the exit polls (somehow) managed to underestimate Obama's white support in Alabama - else the county results make no sense.

[Rob]

It's pretty obvious that the exit polls (somehow) managed to underestimate Obama's white support in Alabama - else the county results make no sense.

For example, how Winston County- roughly 99 percent white- gave "only" 81 percent to McCain? Maybe, but I'd guess that whites in most black-majority areas voted well over 90 percent against Obama; and metro Birmingham probably had equally extreme polarization, especially in the outer suburbs.

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

True enough, but if I remember the exit poll figures right it showed polarisation as being only slightly better than Mississippi - and for that to be true there must be large parts of Alabama with racialised voting patterns at an even worse level than pretty much anywhere in Mississippi. Which seems unlikely. Not that any of this changes the overall picture, of course...

[DariusNJ]

For example, how Winston County- roughly 99 percent white- gave "only" 81 percent to McCain? Maybe, but I'd guess that whites in most black-majority areas voted well over 90 percent against Obama; and metro Birmingham probably had equally extreme polarization, especially in the outer suburbs.

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

It's a noticable pattern, that in very white areas in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, Obama managed to get 15-20% of the white vote. Meanwhile, in areas that are majority black, or 50\50, Obama managed to get only 5-10% of the white vote, so the exit polls may not be wrong.

[nclib]

For example, how Winston County- roughly 99 percent white- gave "only" 81 percent to McCain? Maybe, but I'd guess that whites in most black-majority areas voted well over 90 percent against Obama; and metro Birmingham probably had equally extreme polarization, especially in the outer suburbs.

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

It's a noticable pattern, that in very white areas in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, Obama managed to get 15-20% of the white vote. Meanwhile, in areas that are majority black, or 50\50, Obama managed to get only 5-10% of the white vote, so the exit polls may not be wrong.

Perhaps. These are the top 5 AL counties in terms of raw number white population:

                               number of whites  Obama % black% est. white Obama%
Jefferson County   AL   352,991     52.2%        41.5%       12.4%
Mobile County   AL   244,899     45.3%        34.7%       12.0%
Madison County   AL   218,331     41.9%        24.0%       18.9%
Shelby County   AL   156,441     22.8%        10.6%       12.6%
Baldwin County   AL   148,448     23.8%        10.1%       14.1%

For MS:   
                           white pop. 2008   Obama %   black%   est. white Obama%
Harrison County   MS   119,673   36.6%     24.0%     13.6%
DeSoto County   MS   111,226   30.5%     22.1%     9.3%
Rankin County   MS   107,295   22.8%     20.5%     3.1%
Jackson County   MS   91,924   32.7%     23.0%     10.6%
Hinds County   MS   77,884   69.2%     67.0%     4.9%


The estimated white Obama vote presumes blacks being 96% Obama, as national exit polls say. In any case, it looks somewhat more positive for Ala. than Miss.

[DariusNJ]

For example, how Winston County- roughly 99 percent white- gave "only" 81 percent to McCain? Maybe, but I'd guess that whites in most black-majority areas voted well over 90 percent against Obama; and metro Birmingham probably had equally extreme polarization, especially in the outer suburbs.

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

It's a noticable pattern, that in very white areas in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, Obama managed to get 15-20% of the white vote. Meanwhile, in areas that are majority black, or 50\50, Obama managed to get only 5-10% of the white vote, so the exit polls may not be wrong.

Perhaps. These are the top 5 AL counties in terms of raw number white population:

                               number of whites  Obama % black% est. white Obama%
Jefferson County   AL   352,991     52.2%        41.5%       12.4%
Mobile County   AL   244,899     45.3%        34.7%       12.0%
Madison County   AL   218,331     41.9%        24.0%       18.9%
Shelby County   AL   156,441     22.8%        10.6%       12.6%
Baldwin County   AL   148,448     23.8%        10.1%       14.1%

For MS:   
                           white pop. 2008   Obama %   black%   est. white Obama%
Harrison County   MS   119,673   36.6%     24.0%     13.6%
DeSoto County   MS   111,226   30.5%     22.1%     9.3%
Rankin County   MS   107,295   22.8%     20.5%     3.1%
Jackson County   MS   91,924   32.7%     23.0%     10.6%
Hinds County   MS   77,884   69.2%     67.0%     4.9%


The estimated white Obama vote presumes blacks being 96% Obama, as national exit polls say. In any case, it looks somewhat more positive for Ala. than Miss.

Well thats partly because those counties in Alabama may have some younger voters and a few urban whites. If I'm not mistaken, some of the Alabama counties have college campuses as well that may have some liberal whites, which will bring his white vote % up. The counties in Mississippi don't have college whites or urban whites, so that's my guess as to why there's a difference.

[DariusNJ]

The polarization in some of these Mississippi counties is sickening.

Wilkinson County: 30.1% white, 30.5% McCain
Amite County: 55.4% white, 55.5% McCain

There's many counties like this, especially in the southernmost Mississippi counties.

[Stranger in a strange land]

For example, how Winston County- roughly 99 percent white- gave "only" 81 percent to McCain? Maybe, but I'd guess that whites in most black-majority areas voted well over 90 percent against Obama; and metro Birmingham probably had equally extreme polarization, especially in the outer suburbs.

Rural northern Alabama may include the whitest areas of the state, but I don't think we can extrapolate statewide numbers from those counties.

It's a noticable pattern, that in very white areas in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, Obama managed to get 15-20% of the white vote. Meanwhile, in areas that are majority black, or 50\50, Obama managed to get only 5-10% of the white vote, so the exit polls may not be wrong.

Perhaps. These are the top 5 AL counties in terms of raw number white population:

                               number of whites  Obama % black% est. white Obama%
Jefferson County   AL   352,991     52.2%        41.5%       12.4%
Mobile County   AL   244,899     45.3%        34.7%       12.0%
Madison County   AL   218,331     41.9%        24.0%       18.9%
Shelby County   AL   156,441     22.8%        10.6%       12.6%
Baldwin County   AL   148,448     23.8%        10.1%       14.1%

For MS:   
                           white pop. 2008   Obama %   black%   est. white Obama%
Harrison County   MS   119,673   36.6%     24.0%     13.6%
DeSoto County   MS   111,226   30.5%     22.1%     9.3%
Rankin County   MS   107,295   22.8%     20.5%     3.1%
Jackson County   MS   91,924   32.7%     23.0%     10.6%
Hinds County   MS   77,884   69.2%     67.0%     4.9%


The estimated white Obama vote presumes blacks being 96% Obama, as national exit polls say. In any case, it looks somewhat more positive for Ala. than Miss.

Well thats partly because those counties in Alabama may have some younger voters and a few urban whites. If I'm not mistaken, some of the Alabama counties have college campuses as well that may have some liberal whites, which will bring his white vote % up. The counties in Mississippi don't have college whites or urban whites, so that's my guess as to why there's a difference.

Northern AL has very few actual liberals, but it does have a few labor union type whites. Also, it has few blacks, so poor whites don't have to compete with poor blacks for jobs or services.

[Lephead]

Here is my precinct vote chart :

http://www.scribd.com/documents#folder/91609