Results by MSA

[mileslunn]

Results by Metropolitan Statistical area starting with the most populated:

Dallas/Fort Worth: McCain 55%-45%

Greater Houston: McCain 54%-46%

Although the numbers seems reasonable, how the heck did the statewide results come out to 55% McCain and 44% Obama when aside from the Hispanic South, McCain won most of rural Texas by a landslide, in most cases over 70% and in many cases over 80%.

[mileslunn]

Results by Metropolitan Statistical area starting with the most populated:

Dallas/Fort Worth: McCain 55%-45%

Greater Houston: McCain 54%-46%

I am aware that Travis County went heavily Democratic, but is it large enough to offset much of Rural Texas, especially when you consider McCain got over 70% in pretty much every country in West Central Texas and Texas Panhandle and over 70% in most East Texas save a few with large African-American populations.

Although the numbers seems reasonable, how the heck did the statewide results come out to 55% McCain and 44% Obama when aside from the Hispanic South, McCain won most of rural Texas by a landslide, in most cases over 70% and in many cases over 80%.

Travis County (Austin makes up about 3/4 of the population) was won by Obama 63.52-34.25

[mileslunn]

Memphis: Obama 57/43
Nashville (Joke MSA): McCain 55/45

Do you know the racial demographics in the Nashville MSA?

Only about 16% black, which is less that every single county in our MSA. Memphis MSA is about 46% black, the highest of all million plus metros.

Did Kerry, Gore, or Clinton win the Nashville MSA.  It seems much of Middle Tennessee was fairly Democrat under Clinton and Gore, less so under Kerry, but he at least won a fair number of counties, while Obama did quite poorly outside of Nashville-Davidson.  Was this simply one of the last remnants of the Solid South or were there are other reasons.  I know the South use to go solidly Democrat, but after Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act in 1965, it gradually trended Republican although some areas faster than others.  Were these mostly Dixiecrats or Blue Dog Democrats as a lot of the Southern Democrats philosophically seem to have little in common with the Democrats today.

[mileslunn]

NOTA. The central TN Democrats were TVA Democrats. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennessee_Valley_Authority)

The TVA was created back during the Great Depression, so how come it took so long for this area to swing to the Republicans?  Western Tennessee use to be Democrat back when they were Dixiecrats and many of the Southern Democrats favoured segregation, but today it is quite racially polarized like much of the Deep South.  Eastern Tennessee was always Republican, even during the Reconstruction era.  But Middle Tennessee until very recently tended to favour the Democrats.  Even Kerry won several rural counties in Middle Tennessee.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento Obama: 55%-43%

Greater Cleveland: Obama 62%-37% (Note: this MSA alone gave Obama his victory margin in Ohio)

Greater Orlando: Obama 54%-45%

Greater San Antonio: McCain 52%-47%

Kansas City: Obama 52%-47%

Las Vegas: Obama 58%-39%

I don't think any Democrat has won Ohio minus Cleveland MSA since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  In fact I was surprised that even if you took Cuyahoga County, Obama would have narrowly won Ohio.  That being said, both Gore and Kerry would have probably won Ohio if you took the Cincinnati MSA out so both sort of cancel each other out.  Now true most of Western, Central, Southern Ohio, and Columbus Suburbs also tend to go Republican, however the Democrats usually win the blue collar cities in the Northeastern part (i.e. Youngstown, Warren etc.), Toledo, as well as are generally competitive in the areas along Lake Erie.

I would also argue the Orlando MSA is pretty key since I believe whomever carries the I4 corridor (which includes both the Orlando and Tampa MSA) usually carries Florida.  In many ways Orlando is sort of at the cultural dividing point between Northern Florida which is very much your Deep South type in terms of values and Southern Florida which is more liberal and moderate and quite distinct in its values from the rest of the South.

[mileslunn]

Bill Clinton won Ohio minus Cleveland MSA in 1996.

Okay, I wasn't aware of that.  I figured Ohio - Cleveland MSA would probably be similiar to Indiana in its voting patterns which voted for Dole in 1996.

[mileslunn]

Sacramento Obama: 55%-43%

Greater Cleveland: Obama 62%-37% (Note: this MSA alone gave Obama his victory margin in Ohio)

I don't think any Democrat has won Ohio minus Cleveland MSA since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  In fact I was surprised that even if you took Cuyahoga County, Obama would have narrowly won Ohio.  That being said, both Gore and Kerry would have probably won Ohio if you took the Cincinnati MSA out so both sort of cancel each other out.  Now true most of Western, Central, Southern Ohio, and Columbus Suburbs also tend to go Republican, however the Democrats usually win the blue collar cities in the Northeastern part (i.e. Youngstown, Warren etc.), Toledo, as well as are generally competitive in the areas along Lake Erie.

Actually I recall reading that Obama won the Columbus MSA (defined as Franklin and all contiguous counties) by 52-47, an inverse to Kerry/Bush results. Franklin County continues to switch hard Democratic, and the surrounding counties are not as overwhelmingly Democratic as in past decades. It's a good future sign for the Ohio Democratic Party as its also one of the growing areas of the state.

True, Obama won the Columbus MSA, but the Columbus suburbs still went for McCain albeit by smaller margins than Obama won the city proper.  The Cincinnati suburbs went heavily for McCain, over 60% thus despite losing the city proper badly, he easily won the MSA.  Cleveland suburbs on average favoured Obama although not by the massive margins he won in Cleveland proper.  McCain did win a few suburbs, although I believe far more went for Obama than McCain.

[mileslunn]

I always thought Obama's performance in Ohio in general was very poor when you consider just how bad the state economy was. The fact that 47% still wanted the Republicans in charge after Bush + Iraq + the state economy + the meltdown + the loss of manufacturing jobs throughout the decade does not speak well of Democratic strengths in the state.

Its true he didn't do as well as some might think, although I think this was a state more suited to a Hilary Clinton type Democrat as opposed to Obama one.  Also McCain campaigned quite heavily in the state in the final month while Obama did some but not quite to the extent of McCain.  Relative to Pennsylvania, his numbers were reasonable as the Republicans always perform slightly better in Ohio than Pennsylvania, although the difference in Republican performance between Ohio and Indiana was rather small as normally the Republicans do quite a bit better in Indiana.  Although Obama did campaign there a fair bit while I think most Republicans just assumed they would win the state as they always have.