Ok, replace Gore's name with Kerry. Of these groups of voters, what numbers do you expect to see a significant difference from 2000 to 2004? Either overall or for one candidate or another (I removed Buchanan....with pleasure)? For instance, I imagine there will be a large non-white vote and lower income vote, and I think the voting pattern will be even more Kerry in those groups than Gore. I also think there might be a slightly higher percent identifying as gay and of those a substantial increase in Dem voting.
Thoughts? Will women close the gap between parties?
source:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/2000vote/general/exitpoll_hub.htmlNATIONAL EXIT POLL RESULTS
% of All GORE BUSH NADER
Are you:
Male 48 42 53 3
Female 52 54 43 2
Are you:
White 81 42 54 3
Black 10 90 9 1
Latino 7 62 35 2
Asian 2 55 41 3
Other 1 55 39 4
To which age group do you belong?
18-29 17 48 46 5
30-44 33 48 49 2
45-59 28 48 49 2
60+ 22 51 47 2
What was the last grade of school you completed?
Did not complete high school 5 59 39 1
High school graduate 21 48 49 1
Some college 32 45 51 3
College graduate 24 45 51 3
Postgraduate study 18 52 44 3
1999 total family income:
Under $15,000 7 57 37 4
$15,000-$29,999 16 54 41 3
$30,000-$49,999 24 49 48 2
$50,000-$74,999 25 46 51 2
$75,000-$99,999 13 45 52 2
$100,000 or more 15 43 54 2
Are you currently married?
Yes 65 44 53 2
No 35 57 38 4
Do you currently have any children under 18 living in your household?
Yes 39 45 52 2
No 61 50 46 3
Do you work full-time for pay?
Yes 67 49 48 2
No 33 47 48 3
No matter how you voted today, do you usually think of yourself as a:
Democrat 39 86 11 2
Republican 35 8 91 1
Independent 27 45 47 6
Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union?
Yes, I do 16 62 34 3
Yes, someone else 10 54 41 3
No 74 44 52 2
On most political matters, do you consider yourself:
Liberal 20 80 13 6
Moderate 50 52 44 2
Conservative 29 17 81 1
Is this the first time you have ever voted?
Yes 9 52 43 4
No 91 48 48 2
Are you gay, lesbian or bisexual?
Yes 4 70 25 4
No 96 47 50 3
In the 1996 election for president, did you vote for:
Clinton (Dem) 46 82 15 2
Dole (Rep) 31 7 91 1
Perot (Ref) 6 27 64 7
Someone else 2 26 52 15
Did not vote 13 44 52 3
Do you or does someone else in your household own a gun?
Yes 48 36 61 2
No 52 58 39 3
When did you finally decide who to vote for in the presidential election?
Last three days 11 48 46 5
In the last week 6 48 44 5
In the last month 13 49 45 5
Before that 69 48 50 1
Are you:
Protestant/Christian 54 42 56 2
Catholic 26 50 47 2
Jewish 4 79 19 1
Other 6 62 28 7
None 9 61 30 7
How often do you attend religious servces?
More than once a week 14 36 63 1
Once a week 28 40 57 2
Few times a month 14 51 46 2
Few times a year 28 54 42 3
Never 14 61 32 6
Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement, also known as the religious right?
Yes 14 18 80 1
No 83 54 42 3
Which comes closest to your position? Abortion should be:
Legal in all cases 23 70 25 4
Legal in most cases 33 58 38 3
Illegal in most cases 27 29 69 1
Illegal in all cases 13 22 74 1
