German Election Prediction Contest

[Tender Branson]

Might refine this stuff in the evening, if additional polls come out:

I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 32.5%
SPD: 26.1%
FDP: 14.4%
Left: 11.1%
Greens: 10.5%
Others: 5.4%

Turnout: 74.7%

Red-Red-Green: 47.7%
Black-Yellow: 46.9%

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1 - CDU/CSU
2 - SPD
3 - FDP
4 - Left
5 - Greens

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SPD wins Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin and Brandenburg (allthough the Left will be within 1 point).

The Left wins Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen.

CSU wins in Bavaria.

CDU wins everywhere else.

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CDU/CSU: Best = Bavaria, Worst = Berlin
SPD: Best = Bremen, Worst = Bavaria or Saxony (lean Saxony)
FDP: Best = BW or Hesse (lean BW), Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Left: Best = Sachsen-Anhalt, Worst = Bavaria
Greens: Best = Berlin, Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or or Sachsen-Anhalt (lean MV)

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No clue.

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No clue.

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I´m not that insane ... 300 constituencies with no polls. It would just be too embarrassing.

[Tender Branson]

We could include predictions for the 2 state elections though which are also held tomorrow:

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 31% (-9)
SPD: 26% (-13)
FDP: 15% (+8 )
Greens: 13% (+7)
Left: 7% (+6)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (nc)

Brandenburg

SPD: 32% (nc)
Left: 27% (-1)
CDU: 21% (+2)
FDP: 7% (+4)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (-2)
Others: 4% (-4)

[Tender Branson]

Don't know if I should make a last-minute change in my prediction after I saw Stefan Raab's "TV Total" result yesterday, which indicated a strong surge for the Left at the expense of the SPD.

But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

We'll see. I think I let my prediction as it is.

[Tender Branson]

But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.

As if all the CDU/CSU/FDP-people are working on a Saturday evening ...

Or I can also state that they are just too dumb to use a phone.

[Tender Branson]

But it could only mean that the Leftists were more likely to watch "TV Total", pick up their phone and make a call or send an SMS to vote ...

Makes sense, people on welfare do tend to have the most time.

As if all the CDU/CSU/FDP-people are working on a Saturday evening ...

Or I can also state that they are just too dumb to use a phone.

Left always seems to massively overperform in these TV polls. There have been lots of Kabel 1 (or whatever) video text polls that have the Left in 1st place.

Probably has more to do with how they choose to spend their time.

I'm pretty sure that voters of the Left spend significantly more time watching TV, statistically, don't you think?

Over the day for sure, because many of them are unemployed. But not in the night, where it should be more mainstream. Because what else do the CDU/CSU/FDP voters do in the evening ?

And what also contradicts it is the fact that in the 2005 TV Total poll the Left got only 10% or so, yet unemployment was at 5 Mio ...

Another important factor is that CDU/CSU and SPD voters are very old and go to sleep at 7pm.

Or I state that CDU/CSU/FDP voters are just too geizig to spend 50 Cents on a call or SMS ...

[Tender Branson]

Or I state that CDU/CSU/FDP voters are just too geizig to spend 50 Cents on a call or SMS ...

You can see what unemployed people spend money on

What should they do instead ? Drop dead in front of the TV ?

[Tender Branson]

Let's just say I have lots of alcohol ready for tonight.

Cool. What kind ? Hard one or Champagne ?

I think I´m also zwitschering a beer or two when the returns come in.

[Tender Branson]

Perhaps followed by: Stuttgart I (20+%)

Why not Freiburg?

Because of the 11% in 2005.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for best CDU constituency (list): Cloppenburg-Vechta

Prediction for best CSU constituency (list): Rottal am Inn (Pope-district)

[Tender Branson]

Might refine this stuff in the evening, if additional polls come out:

I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 32.5%
SPD: 26.1%
FDP: 14.4%
Left: 11.1%
Greens: 10.5%
Others: 5.4%

Turnout: 74.7%

Red-Red-Green: 47.7%
Black-Yellow: 46.9%

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1 - CDU/CSU
2 - SPD
3 - FDP
4 - Left
5 - Greens

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SPD wins Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin and Brandenburg (allthough the Left will be within 1 point).

The Left wins Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen.

CSU wins in Bavaria.

CDU wins everywhere else.

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CDU/CSU: Best = Bavaria, Worst = Berlin
SPD: Best = Bremen, Worst = Bavaria or Saxony (lean Saxony)
FDP: Best = BW or Hesse (lean BW), Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Left: Best = Sachsen-Anhalt, Worst = Bavaria
Greens: Best = Berlin, Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or or Sachsen-Anhalt (lean MV)

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No clue.

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No clue.

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I´m not that insane ... 300 constituencies with no polls. It would just be too embarrassing.

We could include predictions for the 2 state elections though which are also held tomorrow:

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 31% (-9)
SPD: 26% (-13)
FDP: 15% (+8 )
Greens: 13% (+7)
Left: 7% (+6)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (nc)

Brandenburg

SPD: 32% (nc)
Left: 27% (-1)
CDU: 21% (+2)
FDP: 7% (+4)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (-2)
Others: 4% (-4)

OK, wasn't really that bad after all. Mostly got the state elections right and the "best/worst state"-stuff and the overall result. Turnout was really low and hard to predict ...