Holsatia May 2013 Local Elections Communities Mapgasm

[Franknburger]

As announced in the German Elections thread, I have over the last weeks been working on a base map of all the more than 1.000 communities in the State of Schleswig-Holstein. Unfortunately, I only made it half-way through, to a bit south of Kiel. Nevertheless, this is most of Holsatia, and incorporates the bulk of the State's population (though it would have been nice to have also covered the Kiel suburbs and the Rendsburg area, which are missing).

Instead of spending more time on finishing the base map, I have decided to use what I have to display the results of yesterday's Schleswig-Holstein local election. I will start with the CDU in the next post.

Some basic remarks:

• The green areas are unpopulated forest districts with no votes
  
• Major lakes (also no votes) that are found in the northern and eastern parts are usually shown in light blue. For the CDU map, I changed their colouring into grey to  make them easier distinguishable from "low CDU vote" areas.
• Colouring schemes were adjusted according to party strength and are in general not to Atlas standards.
  

[minionofmidas]

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I have never come across the form before. The modern English form is "Holstein".

[Franknburger]

And here comes the CDU map:



Obviously, their strongholds are in rural areas, where they may reach up to 70% and more. However, I was quite surprised to see that the stereotypical "black" (=dark blue) marshlands along the North Sea and Lower Elbe are not anymore so. Pockets have remained (and there might be more when moving up further north the coast), but in many parts the CDU has suffered heavy blows from local 'citizen lists' - and other parts of the marshes have been and are still FDP strongholds. It also seems that the Federal Ministry of Transport's failure to in time repair crucial locks on the Kiel Canal, which lead to a Canal closure this March, did not help the CDU there.

Another traditional CDU stronghold where they have suffered quite some losses is Eastern Holsatia - the peninsula in the Baltic sea north-east of Lübeck. This is also transport-related - here it is the controversial Fehmarnbelt crossing towards Denmark, and especially the upgrading / relocation of the railway line. Most communities along the envisaged possible lines have formally protested against the plans, complaining about poor analysis and documentation, insufficient dialogue / participation etc. [From having read some communities' official statements, prepared with quite some diligence, I get the impression that the current Federal planning is so full of mistakes that courts are likely to demand a complete planning overhaul].

Another surprise was major army camps, which I had assumed to be firmly in CDU hands. However, in some of these places (e.g. Kellinghusen, Hohenlockstedt) the CDU hardly made it to 30%. The recent army reform includes major staffing cuts or even camp closures in Schleswig-Holstein, which locals apparently don't like. [It also seems that the Federal Ministry of Defence has not always been bringing forward detailed plans on when and how certain camps shall be closed]. Rural areas near to the camps, which should be favourite retirement places for ex-soldiers and officers, on the other hand, vote strongly CDU.

The larger cities of Kiel, Lübeck and Neumünster were never CDU strongholds, yet the CDU managed to retain some 30% plus vote share there. Their "urban problem", however, now also extends to many of the smaller cities and the Hamburg suburbs. The major suburban corridors extending from Hamburg to the north-west (Pinneberg/Elmshorn), the north-east (Ahrensburg / Bad Oldesloe / Lübeck), and the south-east (Geesthacht/ Lauenburg) are clearly visible as low-CDU-vote areas.

What saved the day for the CDU, however, was the fourth of the major corridors, which stretches north from Hamburg to Neumunster / Rendsburg / Kiel. Here, in the densely populated eastern parts of Pinneberg county and western parts of Segeberg county, the CDU could manage vote shares above 40%, partly up to 50%. This is traditional FDP country, but my impression (to be confirmed by further mapping to come) is that a lot of former FDP voters here switched to the CDU. Segeberg county had the largest CDU gain of all counties in the state, and has now become the party's strongest county, surpassing its traditional North Sea strongholds.

[minionofmidas]

Is that for the district councils or the municipal councils?

[Franknburger]

Is that for the district councils or the municipal councils?

Its county (district) councils. There is no point in doing a municipal council map, since out of the 1116 municipalities, 950 have less than 1.000 inhabitants and will typically only have one (in some cases two) non-partisan lists running for the municipality council. In various of the 'larger' municipalities (between 1 and 2.5k population, 112 in total), for lack of candidates several parties have joined lists (in a nearby municipality, e.g. a joint CDU/SPD list was running against a non-partisan 'citizen list').

[Franknburger]

Now the Greens - this time the lakes are nicely blue, but I had to make the forest districts a bit pinkish so they are distinguishable ..



First the hotspots: In fact, a lot of what appears to be a Green hot-spot is in fact a sparsely populated rural area with a few eco-farmers. In their top village, Fredeburg south of Ratzeburg, e.g., the greens gained 19 out of 32 votes.

Nevertheless, a few 'real' hot spots are clearly distinguishable:

• The area close to the notoriously mal-functioning Krümmel nuclear plant (now permanently closed-down) on the Elbe river directly south-east of Hamburg;
  
• Not as apparent at first sight, but still quite contrasting to the surrounding, the area around the Brokdorf (still operating) and Brunsbüttel (shut-down) nuclear plants on the Lower Elbe
• the area along the planned extension of the A 20 motorway directly south of Bad Segeberg;
• The corridor for the Fehmarnbelt link upgrading, running from the island of Fehmarn in the north-eastern corner of the map towards Lübeck

But the map also shows that the Green appeal now reaches far beyond protest against specific projects and installations. Once an urban, academic party (and as such traditionally strong in Hamburg and Kiel), their electorate has long become sub- and exurban. However, it took the Greens some time to organise in the field, and nominate own candidates not only for county, but also for city councils. In the Hamburg periphery, the towns where the Greens have a city council tradition stand out with strong results:  Alveslohe (30%, down from 32%), Wentorf n. Hamburg (24.8, up from 19.4), Halstenbek (24.6, up from  22.6), Ahrensburg (21.3, up from 18.5).  For comparison - in Henstedt-Ulzburg,  next to Alveslohe, where the Greens did not run for the city council in 2008, they reached 17% (up from 13.9 %).

Stormarn, the county between Hamburg an Lübeck, has been the traditional Green stronghold and remained so at now 16.5% (plus 3.4)- with strength and gains not only in the cities, but also in the villages. The pattern has spread out to Herzogtum Lauenburg (south of Lübeck, up 4.3 % to 16.5), eastern Segeberg and, most notably, Plön county to the south-east of Kiel (+6.3% to 15.6%).  In fact, the above map is a good indicator on the extension of the Hamburg, Kiel and Lübeck exurban belts. [It is a pity I can't map the immediate Kiel periphery, that really should be interesting ..]

Within the Hamburg periphery, the Greens tend to perform better in upper-class, CDU dominated suburbs (e.g. 18.5 % in Aumühle next to the Sachsenwald forest district) than in blue-collar suburbs like Oststeinbek (9.1%) or Rellingen (13 %). In relation to the overall trend, they especially underperformed in Norderstedt (plus 1.6 to 14.8 ), the largest of the Hamburg suburbs (pop. 70.000) and a traditional Green stronghold.

Outside the Hamburg / Kiel / Lübeck metros, the air gets thinner for the Greens. Along the coasts, they have traditionally been suffering from conflicts between environmental protection and tourism (e.g. bird watchers vs. kite surfers), and I wonder whether they would have made it above 10% in many communities in East Holstein without the Fehmarnbelt link issue.

Towards the north-west, the map is actually painting a quite misleading picture. Essentially, the Greens get fair to quite reasonable results in the larger cities (12.5% in Neumünster, 13% in Itzehoe, 16% in Glücksstadt, 15% in Meldorf, 10% in Heide), and pick up a number of votes in a sparsely populated village here and there (e.g. 39 out of 182 votes, 21.1%,  in Gribbohm on the Kiel Canal). However, they are very weak in the small towns such as Marne (pop. 5,700, 5.7% Greens), Schenefeld near Itzehoe (pop. 2,400, 6.8% Greens), or Hohenlockstedt (pop. 6,000 4.8% Greens).  
While Steinburg county (itzehoe) is (ex-)urban enough for the Greens to make it to 11.4 % county-wide, Dithmarschen county (Heide) was their worst county across the whole state at just 8.3%. This is in fact almost double of what they got in 2008 (4.4%), so things are not as bad for the Greens here as it looks at first sight.

Having spoken of Hohenlockstedt, which is a former army town: Army camps, and the retirement areas surrounding them, are, quite unsurprisingly, anything but green-friendly territory, and can be easily spotted on the map: Boostedt directly south of Neumunster, Wittenborn to the south-east of the Segeberg forest district,  Dägeling/ Kremperheide south of Itzehoe, Appen on the western border of Hamburg, etc.

[Franknburger]

This is the map by leading party (This time the forest districts are in army green, I hope nobody mistakes them for Greem pickups. The lakes are in very light blue.)




Compared to 2088, when the SPD did hardly win any major city except for Kiel, Lübeck, Elmshorn, Glückstadt and Rendsburg (not on the map), they made quite some comeback. Significant pickups include Wedel (pop. 33,000) and Schenefeld (pop. 19.000) on the southwestern border of Hamburg, as well as Tornesch (pop. 13.000) a bit further up north-west. On the south-eastern Hamburg periphery, they picked up Geesthacht (pop. 30,000) and Schwarzenbek (pop 15,000), plus a few smaller exurbs. Preetz (pop. 16.000) south-east of Kiel, Ratekau (pop. 16.000) north and Reinfeld (pop. 9.000) west of Lübeck, and a number of smaller places on the south-western Lübeck periphery, add to their sub-urban comeback. Other noteworthy pickups are Brunsbüttel (pop. 13,000) on the Lower Elbe (Kiel Canal), and especially quite a sweep in traditionally CDU-leaning East Holstein, including the island of Fehmarn and Oldenburg / Holstein (pop. 10,000, army camp to be significantly reduced in size) with its surroundings. East Holstein and Dithmarschen (Brunsbüttel area) were the two counties with the largest SPD gains (+4.5% each).

As far as I can see, the SPD did not lose any community to the CDU. However, they suffered quite heavy losses in some of their few traditional strongholds in the Hamburg periphery, including Hasloh (-7%) and Ammersbek (-3%). In any case, in spite of the a/m comebacks in parts of the Hamburg periphery, there are still a number of places which socio-demographically should be SPD territory, but were won by the CDU, most notably Neumunster, Norderstedt, Pinneperg city, Halstenbek/ Rellingen, and the eastern Hamburg suburbs (Reinbek / Glinde / barsbüttel / Oststeinbek). They should also do better in the more industrialised of the county capitals, such as Heide, Itzehoe and Bad Oldesloe. [well, at least they took the southern Itzehoe periphery including their traditional chalk mining / cement factory stronghold of Lägerdorf).

Citizen lists, while typically losing some 2% compared to 2008, continued to play a significant role in Dithmarschen and Steinburg, where they picked up a number of smaller places, as well as in Plön and East Holstein (no pickups there).

While two of the four Green pickups are in small villages, the other two, namely Klein Gladebrügge directly south of Bad Segeberg (A 20 issue) and especially the Hamburg suburb of Börnsen (pop 4.200) close to the now shut-down Krümmel nuclear plant are somehow unexpected.

The FDP win in St. Margarethen on the Lower Elbe, half-way between the Brokdorf and Brunsbüttel nuclear plants, is the expression of overall strong FDP support in that area. My best guess (but its really a guess) is that the FDP, which was traditionally anti-nuclear in Schleswig-Holstein, has been organising the anti-nuclear but otherwise rather conservative part of the area's population.

[Franknburger]

Now on to the SPD:



This map is quite a surprise: One would expect the major cities (Kiel Lübeck/ Neumunster) to stand out in bright red, alongside with the more densely populated part of the Hamburg periphery, and a lot of light pink in-between.

Alright, there is some light pink, especially towards the north-west. But there is surprising rural/ small-town SPD strength, especially in East Holstein, the Elbe marshes south of Glückstadt, and across Dithmarschen - all of which are stereotypical CDU strongholds (obviously not anymore). You may also say that, with the Greens advancing, the times of the 'red cities' are over. Still - the SPD share in Kiel or Lübeck should be in the low fourties, not the mid-thirities (which is quite a progress compared to 2008, when the SPD barely made it above 30% there, due to the Linke's strength).

Now the bad news - look at the Hamburg periphery. This is where the numbers should be racked  up in order to counter the CDU's rural strength. Instead, the SPD is rarely making it above 40%, and in some places (e.g. Ellerbek, pop. 4.300, directly on the Hamburg border) even misses the 20% mark.

There has been a local scandal in Segeberg county (officials failed to  in time detect and prevent a case of child neglection, but were backed up by the SPD county governor), which may explain some of the SPD weakness in the northern Hamburg periphery. But the pattern  extends beyond Segeberg county. This makes me start to wonder whether the "northern bias" on state level has been firing back [Except for Finance Minister Monika Heinold (Greens), no state cabinet member is from the Hamburg metro area, and the SSW has been quite effective in channeling funds towards the Flensburg area, at the expense of other parts of the state.] 

[Franknburger]

The FDP lost 4% to just 5%, which, in the absence of the 5 per cent threshold and CDU loan votes, should be a pretty good indicator of their base support in the State.




The FDP, in the old DNVP tradition, comes out very much as a small-town party. They remained below 5% in the major cities (3.2 in Lübeck, 3.9 in Kiel, 4.2 in Neumunster) and across most rural areas. However, they  managed to gain more than 5% in virtually every small town in the region, except for a few blue-collar Hamburg suburbs (especially to the east), and the northern and western Lübeck suburbs.

Their stongholds, where they gained more than 10%, in places even above 30%,  include

• The area along the Lower Elbe between Glückstadt (10.1%) and Brunsbüttel, (13.4%), including parts of the hinterland,
• The eastern part of Pinneberg, with especially strong results in the smaller suburbs of Appen and Ellerau,
• The northern Hamburg periphery, up to their traditional stronghold of Bad Bramstedt (10.2%, down from 17%) and further beyond to the north-west.
• Several small towns in upper East Holstein, especially Oldenburg/ Holstein and Grömitz, and(
• North-central parts of Herzogtum Lauenburg, including southern Lübeck exurbs and the area around the town of Schwarzenbek.

The FDP appears to perform better than average in some tourism areas (lower north-sea coast, Aukrug nature park, Plön and Ratzeburg lake districts), but this does not hold true for most of the Baltic Sea resorts (with the exception of Grömitz)..

[Franknburger]

The NPD's vote share went down from 0.4 to 0.1 per cent. Good news, isn't it? In fact, the figures don't tell anything, because this year the NPD was only running in two areas, namely Neumunster (1.6 %), and Pinneberg county (1.0%), in both of which they had not been on the ballot in 2008.

In addition, in the traditional NPD stronghold of Herzogtum Lauenburg, a "citizen list" called "Rechtsstaatliche Liga" (pretty untranslatable, "League for Rule of Law" may come close to it) was running. This citizen list happened to be lead by the current NPD county council member, which is surely only coincidental and does not have anything to do with on-going national discussion about a possible NPD ban ...
Anyway, the Liga got 1.6%, which is half a percent less than the NPD in 2008 but was enough for them to (re-)gain a seat. I am not yet sure what to make out of it: On one hand, going down from 2.1 to 1.6 is a 25% decrease. On the other hand, while the NPD may pick up an occasional protest vote due to name recognition, you have to know what the "Rechtsstaatliche Liga" is to vote for them, so these remaining 1.6 per cent should be pretty hardcore followers.

In any case, here is the map of NPD and "Rechtsstaatliche Liga" votes:



We are talking about small vote shares in predominantly small communities here, so peaks should not be over-interpreted. The top "Rechtsstaatliche Liga" result of 8.1% in the village of Göttin, e.g., happens to be 3 out of 39 votes.

The main messages are:

1. NPD support is widespread but in general low,
2. Support rather tends to be found in rural areas and cities/ small-towns, less so in suburbs.
3. Within Herzogtum Lauenburg, a belt connecting Geesthacht (2.3%) with Schwarzenbek (2.0%) and from there onwards (with disruptions) towards Ratzeburg (2.6%)  stands out with elevated NPD / Rechtsstaatliche Liga support.