German Election Results Thread

[Gustaf]

Now, a east-west breakdown on that would be fun.

ARD-prognosis West-Germany - East-Germany

All voters, not only the unemployed ones.

CDU/CSU 34,5 - 29,0
SPD 23,5 - 18,0
FDP 16,0 - 11,0
Linke 9,0 - 27,5
Grüne 11,5 - 8,5
Pirate 2,0 - 2,0
NPD ?? - 3,0
Other 4,0 - 1,0 (in West incl NPD, in East without)

CDU biggest party in the East? huh

[Silent Hunter]

Lot of Christians in the old GDR.

Last time, it wasn't done and dusted for several days.

[Silent Hunter]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

[Silent Hunter]

Parties were fairly split on the issues.

Can someone explain why the SPD is getting such a whipping?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can someone explain why the SPD is getting such a whipping?

Short version: being in coalition with the CDU for four years did not exactly help the party with its base or with lefty swing voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

CDU biggest party in the East? huh

Vote-split-freak.

[DL]

I've noticed that in Europe parties that the junior partners in coalitions tend to lose a lot of support in subsequent elections. The FDP tended to barely clear the 5% hurdle when it was in government with the CDU and we also see in the Netherlands that the D-66 tends to get wiped off the map every time they are part of the governing coalition and then they make a big comeback when they are in opposition.

[minionofmidas]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

[Hash]

Lot of Christians in the old GDR.

GDR voting patterns aren't based as much on sociological stuff as they are in the West.

[Silent Hunter]

Can someone explain why the SPD is getting such a whipping?

Short version: being in coalition with the CDU for four years did not exactly help the party with its base or with lefty swing voters.

Ah, I see.

[Silent Hunter]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

All offical unemployment statistics are in fact "official".

[Silent Hunter]

We got an update on whatever the current guess ("Hochrechnung" is).

Union 33.4
SPD 23.0
FDP 14.7
Linke 12.6
Greens 10.4

[Silent Hunter]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

All offical unemployment statistics are in fact "official".

Of course.

Remind me how many seats is needed for a majority in the Bundestag?

[Silent Hunter]

Wow, Brandenburg looks like a mess and a half. Grand Coalition likely there.

[Franzl]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

All offical unemployment statistics are in fact "official".

Of course.

Remind me how many seats is needed for a majority in the Bundestag?

That depends on how many seats there are. That's variable

[Silent Hunter]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

All offical unemployment statistics are in fact "official".

Of course.

Remind me how many seats is needed for a majority in the Bundestag?

That depends on how many seats there are. That's variable

Now I remember. The overhanging mandates. What a stupid idea. Especially when ordering stationery.

[Gustaf]

Can someone give me a concise explanation of the German seat-allocation system? I'm almost getting it but not quite.

What I've got is this: you have 2 votes. One for a candidate, FPTP like in the US or UK and one for a party (like in Sweden). If you get too few seats in the FPTP-system you get compensated in some way but if you get too many you can keep them (the überhang). But I'm not clear on the details.

[minionofmidas]

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

Official or "official"?

Official unemployment figures were closer to the truth in 2005 than is usual, due to a law change that it took time to adjust to. (Indeed, they may have been actually overstated.) But there was *some* real job creation in the years after until the economic crash, and *relatively* little job loss since.

[minionofmidas]

Can someone give me a concise explanation of the German seat-allocation system? I'm almost getting it but not quite.

What I've got is this: you have 2 votes. One for a candidate, FPTP like in the US or UK and one for a party (like in Sweden). If you get too few seats in the FPTP-system you get compensated in some way but if you get too many you can keep them (the überhang). But I'm not clear on the details.

Seats are allocated by list vote, first to parties, then to state parties. When a party has won too many direct seats in that state (number of direct seats is half the number of seats total) then it gets to keep the surplus.
Don't bother to understand it, it's been declared unconstitutional from 2011.

[Silent Hunter]

Don't bother to understand it, it's been declared unconstitutional from 2011.

Good!

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt on 89 precincts

CDU 28.9
SPD 23.5
FDP 16.2
Greens 14.4
Left 11.4
Pirates 2.5
NPD 1.1
Animals 1.1

In case you're wondering, yes that Green vote will go up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been looking at the exit poll breakdowns on the ZDF site - yeah I don't put too much stock in them, but they can be interesting. Anyway, in some (but not all) ways the sociological profile of SPD voters in the West seems to have more in common with Left voters in the East than with Easten SPD voters.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, precincts 140 01 and 140 02, southwesternmost corner of the East End (just east of where I live.) Weird mix of poor 100-plus year old housing, poor 50s and 60s housing (lots of immigrants in both), and yuppie enclave hyper-rich 2000s housing.
Greens 258 (21.8%)
SPD 255
FDP 244
CDU 229 (19.4%)
Left 144 (12.2%)
Pirates 33 (2.8%)
other 20

[minionofmidas]

Been looking at the exit poll breakdowns on the ZDF site - yeah I don't put too much stock in them, but they can be interesting. Anyway, in some (but not all) ways the sociological profile of SPD voters in the West seems to have more in common with Left voters in the East and with Easten SPD voters.

I suppose that should be a "than". Makes sense.