German Election Results Thread

[rob in cal]

I noticed that among the smaller parties (those below 5%) most of their voters didn't give them many first (constituency votes) but only the more important  (assuming they won more than 5% of course) second vote.  However, the NDP actually won more first than second votes.  If many NDP voters had done like most small party voters and given a bigger party their first vote, and assuming the majority of them voted for the CSU CDU perhaps the CDU could have won even more overhang mandates.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I noticed that among the smaller parties (those below 5%) most of their voters didn't give them many first (constituency votes) but only the more important  (assuming they won more than 5% of course) second vote.  However, the NDP actually won more first than second votes.  If many NDP voters had done like most small party voters and given a bigger party their first vote, and assuming the majority of them voted for the CSU CDU perhaps the CDU could have won even more overhang mandates.

I guess it's unlikely that many members of the NPD's hardcore voter base would vote for a CDU candidate. To them, the CDU consists of Jew-loving, pro-American traitors. And there's only one punishment for treason: death. But you don't vote for them. You don't vote for someone and then execute him. Wouldn't make sense.

As far as the more casual NPD voter is concerned... they could perhaps vote for a CDU candidate. Or maybe a LINKE candidate, considering that those are most likely anti-establishment, anti-mainstream protest voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map shows the lead of the leading party (direct vote). Standard key (ie; 0, 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 25, 33, 45). Mistakes possible - please point any out if seen so changes can be made.

[Lief 🗽]

Al

Wow, Saxony stands out, it's almost as blue as Bavaria. Why is it so much more conservative than the other ex-DDR states?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Al

Wow, Saxony stands out, it's almost as blue as Bavaria. Why is it so much more conservative than the other ex-DDR states?

Saxony is not more conservative, it's more pro-CDU.

Saxony was dominated by popular minister-president Kurt Biedenkopf from 1990 to 2002. During this time, the CDU won three consecutive absolute majorities and was able to govern without any coalition partner. During this period of extreme CDU dominance (for a large part a result of Biedenkopf's popularity), the SPD was never able to gain any foothold in Saxony. And now it's too late for it. The fact that current minister-president Stanislaw Tillich is also quite popular, doesn't help eieither.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al

Wow, Saxony stands out, it's almost as blue as Bavaria. Why is it so much more conservative than the other ex-DDR states?

Others can explain better than I can (I think it has something to do with political developments in the first few years after the fall of the SED and with strong CDU governments at state level. Or something like that), but for now, note that the CDU polled at the national average for the direct vote seats and only slightly better on the PR vote. The party-lead thing flatters the CDU a lot in Saxony.

Edit: and someone who knows far more about it, explains things

[Хahar 🤔]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

[Tender Branson]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

[Хahar 🤔]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

That's about right. I'm more interested in constituency numbers, actually.

[Tender Branson]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

That's about right. I'm more interested in constituency numbers, actually.

Here you have all the constituency results in English. Just add the numbers up if you like:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/wahlkreisergebnisse/

(will take a while) ...

[Hans-im-Glück]

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

Here are the results for the States.

Right = CDU/CSU-FDP
Left = SPD-Linke-Grüne

I don't count the results of the small parties. The Piraten is maybe a left party (in my predict the get 4 second votes and all with the Greens as first vote ), but they change no State. The NPD, Republikaner and DVU are far-right parties and i don't think we can count them to the right. NPD and FDP have nothing in common.

Schleswig-Holstein Right 48,5, Left 47,4
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Right 43,0, Left 51,1
Hamburg Right 41,1, Left 54,2
Niedersachsen Right 46,5, Left 48,6
Bremen Right 34,8, Left 59,9
Brandenburg Right 32,9, Left 59,7
Sachsen-Anhalt Right 40,4, Left 54,4
Berlin Right 40,4, Left 54,4
Nordrhein-Westfalen Right 48,0, Left 47,0
Sachsen Right 48,9, Left 45,8
Hessen Right 48,8, Left 46,1
Thüringen Right 41,0, Left 52,4
Rheinland-Pfalz Right 51,6, Left 42,9
Bayern Right 57,3, Left 34,1
Baden-Württemberg Right 53,2, Left 40,4
Saarland Right 42,8, Left 52,4

[Middle-aged Europe]

You can't really count the NPD as "right wing" in the way we'd count the CDU as right wing. The CDU is a democratic party and the NPD is a totalitarian party. At least 90+% of all CDU voters would rather vote for the SPD than for the NPD. Hell, a clear majority of CDU voters would probably prefer the Left Party over the NPD (if forced to choose).

That's like combining the vote totals of FDR and Stalin ("left wing") on one hand and the vote totals of Winston Chuchill and Adolf Hitler ("right wing") on the other hand in an effort to compare both sums with each other.

[minionofmidas]

I had a look over changes in registered voters numbers... pretty fascinating.

Federally +0.4

High growth states:
Schleswig-Holstein +1.4
2%+ gains in Kiel +3.1, Pinneberg +2.3, Segeberg - Stormarn N +2.1. Decline in Steinburg - Dithmarschen S

Hamburg +2.1
2%+ gains in Mitte +3.2, Eimsbüttel +2.4. No declines.

Berlin +1.3
2%+ gains in Treptow-Köpenick +3.6, Pankow +3.4, Friedrichshain etc +3.4, Mitte +2.6. Declines in Reinickendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg

Bavaria +1.5
2%+ gains in Erlangen +2.5, Nuremberg N +3.3, Regensburg +2.8, anywhere in Upper Bavaria not near the Inn or the Alps (Munich rural +2.8, Fürstenfeldbruck +2.4, Freising +3.0, Ingolstadt +2.3, Erding-Ebersberg a whopping +4.5) but especially - biggest nationally - in Munich herself: E +5.3, S +5.5, W +6.5, N +8.9!
Declines in Hof, Weiden, Bayreuth, Kulmbach, Bad Kissingen (but not Coburg) with Hof at -3.1% and the others below -2%.

Baden-Württemberg +1.3
Can't make out heads or tails on that one, except that South Baden is growing: Freiburg +2.7, Lörrach +2.2, Emmendingen +2.1, Konstanz +2.2 joined by Stuttgart S +2.9, Neckar-Zaber +2.5, Karlsruhe City +2.3, Tübingen topping the list at +3.9. Upper Swabia region that had four seats formed out of three grew 1.9% across the region, so presumably includes areas at over 2 as well. Meanwhile, declines in Mannheim, Karlsruhe Rural, Göppingen, Aalen-Heidenheim, Schwarzwald-Baar. Wth?

Averageish States
Lower Saxony +0.5
Declines across the nonmetropolitan Southeast, worst in Goslar etc -2.8 and Salzgitter-Wolfenbüttel -2.2, with Göttingen, Hildesheim, Hameln etc, Nienburg-Schaumburg, Helmstedt-Wolfsburg and Celle-Uelzen (but not Brunswick or Gifhorn-Peine) also posting declines. So does Friesland-Wilhelmshaven. 2%+ gains in Cloppenburg-Vechta +3.0 and Oldenburg +2.6
Six-out-of-five region in the northeast grew 1.2%.

Bremen +0.3
East up 1.3, West - Bremerhaven down 0.8

NRW +0.2
33 of the 64 seats posting declines, 32 of them forming a solid yin-and-yang-ish southeastern half of the state that begins at Oberbergischer Kreis, Solingen-Remscheid, Mettmann, Duisburg, Oberhausen, Recklinghausen, Hamm inclusive; Soest and Paderborn exclusive, Bielefeld inclusive. The 33rd is Mönchengladbach.
2%+ declines only in Gelsenkirchen -3.1 and Duisburg N -2.4
2%+ increases much more common, in Paderborn +2.4, Münster +3.0, Coesfeld +2.1, Steinfurt   III +2.1, Borken II +2.4, Rhein-Sieg NE +2.2, Bonn +3.1, Cologne III +2.6 with Cologne II topping the list at +4.3

Hesse +0.7
Big increases in Frankfurt (W +3.1, E +4.1). Declines in Waldeck, Schwalm-Eder and especially Werra etc -2.4

Rhineland-Pfalz +0.6
Declines in Neuwied, Bitburg, Mosel etc, Kreuznach, Pirmasens. Big gains in Mainz +2.9, S Pfalz +2.1 and especially Luxembourg Outer Trier +3.3

Declining States
Saarland -1.2
Homburg worst at -1.8, Saarlouis best at -0.7

Mecklenburg -1.4
Rostock up, and up by 2.4. Biggest declines in Neubrandenburg etc -3.7 followed by N Lower Pomerania -2.2

Brandenburg -0.2
Berlin suburbia growing, remainder decaying. Border change between Potsdam etc (which was getting to be too big) and Dahme-Spreewald, these two together grew by 3.4. Oberhavel up 3.9, Märkisch Oderland up 2.7.
OTOH, Prignitz down 3.0, Uckermark down 3.2, Cottbus down 3.3, Elbe-Elster down a whopping 5.1. Brandenburg down 2.1, Frankfurt (Oder) the only constituency within plus to minus 2 at -1.7 (Actually, I'm pretty sure Dahme-Spreewald is within that corridor as well, but producing an exact figure would be too much like work.)

Saxony -1.2
Double whammy of loss of one seat and district reform means seven constituencies remain unchanged (though the rural ones had name changes) and the remainder is all part of one big seat loss area.
Of these seven though, Dresden S up 5.2, Leipzig S up 5.0, Leipzig N up 2.7, while Vogtland down 3.6. Chemnitz, Leipzig rural,  Sächsische Schweiz - whatever at 1.odd declines.

States in final stage of occupation by humans
Thuringia -2.3
Erfurt-Weimar up a bit. Gera-Jena and (just barely) Gotha-Ilm down less than 2 points. Biggest declines in Greiz-Altenburg -4.4, Sonneberg etc -3.5, Kyffhäuser etc -3.2, Suhl etc -3.1. Eisenach etc at -2.5, Eichsfeld at just worse than -2.0.

Saxony-Anhalt -2.9
Again, double whammy of new districts and loss of a seat. Altmark is the only unchanged constituency at -3.1.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I
Bavaria +1.5
2%+ gains in Erlangen +2.5, Nuremberg N +3.3, Regensburg +2.8, anywhere in Upper Bavaria not near the Inn or the Alps (Munich rural +2.8, Fürstenfeldbruck +2.4, Freising +3.0, Ingolstadt +2.3, Erding-Ebersberg a whopping +4.5) but especially - biggest nationally - in Munich herself: E +5.3, S +5.5, W +6.5, N +8.9!
Declines in Hof, Weiden, Bayreuth, Kulmbach, Bad Kissingen (but not Coburg) with Hof at -3.1% and the others below -2%.

This decline is not surprising. In upperfranconia and especially in the region Hof will be the time comes soon, the lights go out forever . The Bavarian government does nothing for us and you get only a few kilometers further in Saxony and Thuringia for a company gives many times more subvention than in my region. Alone in the porcelain industries have been lost over 10,000 jobs in recent years. Who has the opinion in Bavaria everything would be better, come to Hof or Wunsiedel and convince yourself what a bad regional policy is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll be doing constituency maps for the five major parties (list vote - probably CDU and FDP on one set, SPD, Left, Green on the next) and then other stuff. Including Left-Right.

Btw, if there are any other breakdowns for individual cities and so on I'll be happy to do those also. And also if there's postal-precinct stuff for Frankfurt again - I had fun last time I did that.

Edit: yeah, might do some more direct-vote maps as well, but not for a while.

[minionofmidas]

I'll be doing constituency maps for the five major parties (list vote - probably CDU and FDP on one set, SPD, Left, Green on the next) and then other stuff. Including Left-Right.

Btw, if there are any other breakdowns for individual cities and so on I'll be happy to do those also. And also if there's postal-precinct stuff for Frankfurt again - I had fun last time I did that.

Frankfurt reduced the number of precincts while you were sleeping ill (ie, testrunning the new larger precincts for the Euros.) At least they kept the naming scheme. That means I'm not in all cases sure where the postal precincts are right now.
At least I got them to give me a huge printout map of the city with the new day voting precincts that is not for public sale!

[minionofmidas]

What other cities might you be happiest to do?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Frankfurt reduced the number of precincts while you were sleeping ill (ie, testrunning the new larger precincts for the Euros.) At least they kept the naming scheme. That means I'm not in all cases sure where the postal precincts are right now.

That was dastardly of them. Bah.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

What other cities might you be happiest to do?

Just about anywhere, I think. Though larger ones first.

[Хahar 🤔]

FDP map is opposite of PDS map.

[Hash]

What's with the pattern of FDP support in Schleswig-Holstein?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's with the pattern of FDP support in Schleswig-Holstein?

Presumably some of it is a Hamburg suburbia thing.

[Hash]

What's with the pattern of FDP support in Schleswig-Holstein?

Presumably some of it is a Hamburg suburbia thing.

It extends quite far, if that's the case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's with the pattern of FDP support in Schleswig-Holstein?

Presumably some of it is a Hamburg suburbia thing.

It extends quite far, if that's the case.

It was just a guess. And electoral patterns can have multiple causes - the reasons for FDP strength in southern Holstein might be different to elsewhere in the state. But guesses can be very wrong, so...